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8:45-10:30 |
Welcome & Opening
Session Seminar: Beyond the Crisis: The Outlook for Private Capital
Flows to Emerging Markets
Global financial integration has undeniable benefits for developing
economies. But it has also made them more vulnerable. Sudden swings in
investor sentiment and global capital movements can cause severe damage
to the domestic financial and real sectors. This session will examine the
future of private international capital flows for both foreign investors
and recipient countries. It also will also look at which policies can
strengthen these private capital flows to economic development while
reducing the potential for crises.
- Over the last year, many reforms have been proposed for the
international financial system and addressing crisis risk. Will these
initiatives help prevent or mitigate future crises?
- How is the supply of foreign private capital to the emerging markets
likely to evolve?
- Has the market perception and the reality of sovereign and private
sector risk improved enough to ensure sustainable capital flows?
- How can the issue of capital flows be addressed as a matter of
domestic capital market development ?
| Opening Remarks |
James D. Wolfensohn, President, The World Bank Group |
| Opening Remarks |
Jeffrey A. Goldstein, Managing Director, Corporate Leadership & Strategy, World Bank |
| Discussion Leaders |
Andrew Crockett, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland
Stanley Fischer, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
J. Mark Mobius, President, Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Singapore
Anthony Francis Neoh, Professor, Peking University, China
Arminio Fraga Neto, President, Central Bank of Brazil |
| Moderator |
Joyce Chang, Managing Director, Global Emerging Markets, Chase Securities Inc |
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11:00-12:30 |
Exchange Rate Systems for
Emerging Markets: One Size Fits All?
What exchange rate system should developing countries adopt in an era
of volatile international capital flows? Some argue that floating rates
provide the flexibility necessary to respond to volatile capital flows
and fluctuations in the exchange rates of advanced countries, while
others believe a firm commitment to a peg -- such as in a currency
board -- would help increase credibility and stability. Still others
argue that the abandonment of a domestic currency altogether - the
"dollarization" model - is the best way to isolate a country
from the volatility of international capital. Despite a generalized
movement to increased flexibility, intermediate regimes - including
bands and crawling pegs - continue to be the norm preferred by many
emerging markets.
- How do experiences compare among developing countries that have
adopted different exchange rate regimes?
- How do the changes in the international economic environment of the
last decade, both in the monetary and financial area and in international
trade, affect the choice of exchange rate regime?
- Is there a single model that can or should apply to all developing
countries?
- Will the world evolve into a monetary system with only a few
geographic regions within which countries share the same currency?
| Discussion Leaders |
Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation & Economic Growth, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA
Ricardo Hausmann, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor & Director, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Roberto Zahler, President, Zahler & Co., Chile
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| Moderator |
Carola Kaps, Washington Correspondent, Frankfurter Allgemaine Zeitung |
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11:00-12:30
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Bank and Corporate
Restructuring After Crises: Which Prescriptions Work Best?
Systemic financial crises have affected banks and corporations in
many emerging markets. This session will take stock of the impact of both
past and current crises on banks and corporations, review restructuring
efforts underway in many emerging markets, and examine what works best.
- What are the appropriate macro and monetary policies during and
after financial crises?
- What is the role of government in bank and corporate restructuring?
What choices arise from dealing with weak financial institutions and
poorly governed corporations?
- Who should bear the costs of restructuring?
- What types of financial structures are sustainable at the individual
institutional and economy-wide levels? When is the operational and
financial restructuring deep enough to be sustainable and lead to
turnaround?
| Discussion Leaders |
Mark Carawan, Managing Partner, Global Privatization and Emerging Markets Practice, Arthur Andersen, United Kingdom
Hasung Jang, Director, Center for Finance & Banking Research, Korea
Andrei Shleifer, Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University, USA
Lorenzo Zambrano, Chairman and CEO, CEMEX, S.A., Mexico
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| Moderator |
David Lipton, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA |
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11:00-12:30
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The Road Less Traveled: Public/Private Partnerships for Development*
Traditionally, provision of public goods was the exclusive work of
government. Today, the private sector is increasingly recognizing the
profitability of acting in the public interest, working in partnership
with the state and civil society. This session will explore what makes
these partnerships successful, both at the domestic level and in the
international arena; and new opportunities for the private sector to
operate in the public domain. Panelists will describe their personal
experiences with public and private interests and how they can work
together for common goals in areas as diverse as regional economic
development, corporate performance and natural resource management. The
session will also explore briefly the role of multilateral institutions,
and how they might serve as catalysts for these new partnerships.
- How does the rise of these public-private networks create
opportunities for the individual actors involved?
- How might these networks capitalize on the strengths of individual
network actors?
- What obstacles are public and private organizations confronting as
they seek to forge these new alliances?
| Discussion Leaders |
Nick Butler, Group Policy Advisor, BP Amoco plc, United Kingdom
Achim Steiner, Secretary-General, World Commission on Dams, South Africa
Maria Livanos Cattaui Secretary General, International Chamber of Commerce
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| Moderator |
Peter Eigen, Chairman of Transparency International, Germany |
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12:30-1:45
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Keynote Luncheon: Results
First Hilde Johnson, Minister of International Development and Human Rights, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
Moderator to be announced |
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2:00-3:15 |
Dealing With Volatility:
The Role of Risk Management
The high volatility experienced in developing country financial
markets in the past few years has brought issues of risk management to
the fore in an unprecedented way. This seminar will address the major
lessons that have been learned from recent experience and discuss some
possible solutions to unresolved issues.
- Does widespread use of statistical risk management tools, such as
value-at-risk, contribute to increased systemic volatility?
- Can instruments of liquidity provisions at the national level,
such as contingent credit lines, provide effective protection from
currency runs?
- To what extent can new financial instruments offer opportunities
for risk-pulling and risk-reduction?
- What limits, if any, should be placed on risk-taking by institutions
that currently are not regulated?
| Discussion Leaders |
Howard Davies, Chairman, Financial Services Authority, United Kingdom
Peter Garber, Global Risk Strategist, Global Markets Research, Deutsche Bank, United Kingdom
Philippe Jorion, Professor, University of California, USA
Pedro Pou, President, Banco Central de la República Argentina
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| Moderator |
Danièle Nouy, Secretary General, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Switzerland |
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2:00-3:15 |
Countries' Use of Capital Controls
While significant benefits can follow from capital account
liberalization, this option also involves significant risks. The negative
impact of massive reversals of capital flows on currency markets in Asia,
Russia and Latin America have sparked a renewed debate about the role of
capital controls. The crisis that ensued has also raised the question
of how best to sequence capital account liberalization in order to reduce
the volatility of capital flows.
- Can capital controls play a useful role in reducing the volatility
of capital flows? How should they be structured?
- How do capital control regimes affect private investors' investment
decisions?
| Discussion Leaders |
Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Deputy Governor, Bank Negara, Malaysia
LR. Barry Johnston, Division Chief, Monetary & Exchange Policy Analysis Division, Monetary & Exchange Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund
Miguel Kiguel, Chief of Cabinet of Advisors, Ministry of Economy, Public Works & Services, Argentina
Dani Rodrik, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA
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| Moderator |
E. Gerald Corrigan, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs & Co., USA |
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2:00-3:15 |
Monitoring Financial
Systems
Severe financial system problems have recently affected a number of
countries including industrial, developing, and transition economies.
These problems have impaired the efficiency of financial intermediation
and resource allocation; reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy; led
to large direct and indirect fiscal costs; triggered economic downturns;
exacerbated economic contractions; and created negative spill-over effects
for the international community. These experiences demonstrate the
close interrelation between financial system stability and macroeconomic
policy implementation and performance. A broad consensus has emerged
on the need for strengthened monitoring and assessment of the health,
maturity and stability of financial and banking systems.
- What efforts are underway in the international community and by
national authorities to assess and address issues of financial system
stability?
- How can vulnerabilities in the financial and supervisory systems
that could have significant macroeconomic consequences be identified
and monitored?
- What core principles, standards, and good practices have been
developed by the international community to minimize the likelihood and
severity of financial crises?
- How can progress on the implementation of core standards and good
practices be monitored?
| Discussion Leaders |
Manuel Conthe, Vice President, Financial Operations and Head of the FPSI Network, World Bank
Arminio Fraga Neto, President, Central Bank of Brazil
Stefan Ingves, Director, Monetary & Exchange Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, USA
Gregory Root, President, Thomson BankWatch
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| Moderator |
Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank |
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3:45-5:00 |
Managing Political Risk
and Facilitating Foreign Direct Investment
The financial crisis that began in Asia almost two years ago,
followed closely by financial adversities faced by countries like
Russia and Brazil, resulted in a very uncertain and difficult foreign
investment environment. Today, gradual economic recovery through financial
restructuring has led to signs of stabilization in a number of Asian
economies, boosting investor confidence in the international financial
markets. These boom-and-bust cycles can have severe implications for the
investing community and also for the recipients of foreign investment
flows. What recourse do investors have in mitigating risks in this
environment? Key questions that this session will focus on include:
- What is the role of investment insurance in attracting commercial bank
loans critical to large infrastructure projects in these countries?
- What is the role of private political risk insurance providers in
expanding available long-term insurance capacity to meet the rising
demands and respond to the needs of investors?
- To what extent does investment insurance mitigate the political
risk concerns associated with investing in some developing countries
and economies in transition?
| Discussion Leaders |
John D. Hushon, President, El Paso Energy International Company, USA
Clive Tobin, Chief Executive Officer, XL Capital Ltd., Bermuda
Isabel Martín Castella, Deputy General Manager, Banco Santander Central Hispano, Spain
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| Moderator |
Richard Frank, Managing Partner & Chief Operating Officer, Darby Overseas Investments, Ltd., USA |
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3:45-5:00 |
The Private Sector, Crisis
Prevention and Resolution: Bailing Out or Bailing In?
One of the major lessons of the recent crises is that emergency
official assistance to large countries is unlikely to be much help in
the face of massive capital outflows. The appropriate role for the
private sector in crisis prevention and resolution has become one of
the main topics in the international financial architecture debate.
Among the proposals under consideration are the modification of rules
applying to international bond contracts, the creation of mechanisms to
coordinate the actions of creditors, and the ability of the international
community to lend to a country in arrears on its external debts, or even
to authorize a standstill in payments.
- Which, if any, of these measures are likely to be implemented?
- How effective are they likely to be in reducing the risk of crises
and their resolution?
- How will they affect capital flows to emerging markets?
- What are the respective roles of the private and public sectors in
this context?
| Discussion Leaders |
Pablo Guidotti, Secretary of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Argentina
John Lipsky, Chief Economist and Director of Research, The Chase Manhattan Bank, USA
Ernest Stern, Managing Director, J.P. Morgan, USA
Alexander Swoboda, Senior Policy Advisor, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
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| Moderator |
Morris Goldstein, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, USA |
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3:45-5:00 |
Private Flows and Social Investments: Laying The Foundation of a New Financial Architecture*
How can economic growth be achieved while at the same time reducing
poverty and improving social conditions? This policy question has risen
to the forefront of the international community's debate over the need
for a new financial architecture in the wake of the recent crises
in emerging markets. Experience demonstrates that economic growth
policies can and should be accompanied by reductions in inequality and
substantial improvements in social conditions, as this approach provides
a better climate in the long run for both foreign and local private
sector investment.
- What types of social policies and practices will promote and sustain
economic growth?
- What are the potential effects of these reforms on private
investment?
- What are the implications for national governments and for
multilateral agencies?
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5:30-6:30 |
Keynote: Needed: Two Billion Jobs - The Challenge of Youth
Employment
| Opening Remarks |
James D. Wolfensohn, President, The World Bank Group
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| Keynote Speaker |
Kofi Annan, Secretary General, United Nations |
| Moderator |
Mats Karlsson, Vice President, External Affairs & United Nations Affairs, World Bank |
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6:30-7:30 |
Reception |
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* Public Policy Forum |
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Please note that Speakers are confirmed as of August 31, 1999 but still subject to change. |
