1999 Annual
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Program of Seminars
   Program Schedule Saturday, September 25, 1999
   Last updated September 3, 1999


8:45-10:30 Welcome & Opening Session

Seminar: Beyond the Crisis: The Outlook for Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

Global financial integration has undeniable benefits for developing economies. But it has also made them more vulnerable. Sudden swings in investor sentiment and global capital movements can cause severe damage to the domestic financial and real sectors. This session will examine the future of private international capital flows for both foreign investors and recipient countries. It also will also look at which policies can strengthen these private capital flows to economic development while reducing the potential for crises.

  • Over the last year, many reforms have been proposed for the international financial system and addressing crisis risk. Will these initiatives help prevent or mitigate future crises?
  • How is the supply of foreign private capital to the emerging markets likely to evolve?
  • Has the market perception and the reality of sovereign and private sector risk improved enough to ensure sustainable capital flows?
  • How can the issue of capital flows be addressed as a matter of domestic capital market development ?
Opening Remarks James D. Wolfensohn, President, The World Bank Group
Opening Remarks Jeffrey A. Goldstein, Managing Director, Corporate Leadership & Strategy, World Bank
Discussion Leaders Andrew Crockett, General Manager, Bank for International Settlements, Switzerland
Stanley Fischer, First Deputy Managing Director, International Monetary Fund
J. Mark Mobius, President, Templeton Emerging Markets Fund, Singapore
Anthony Francis Neoh, Professor, Peking University, China
Arminio Fraga Neto, President, Central Bank of Brazil
Moderator Joyce Chang, Managing Director, Global Emerging Markets, Chase Securities Inc


11:00-12:30 Exchange Rate Systems for Emerging Markets: One Size Fits All?

What exchange rate system should developing countries adopt in an era of volatile international capital flows? Some argue that floating rates provide the flexibility necessary to respond to volatile capital flows and fluctuations in the exchange rates of advanced countries, while others believe a firm commitment to a peg -- such as in a currency board -- would help increase credibility and stability. Still others argue that the abandonment of a domestic currency altogether - the "dollarization" model - is the best way to isolate a country from the volatility of international capital. Despite a generalized movement to increased flexibility, intermediate regimes - including bands and crawling pegs - continue to be the norm preferred by many emerging markets.

  • How do experiences compare among developing countries that have adopted different exchange rate regimes?
  • How do the changes in the international economic environment of the last decade, both in the monetary and financial area and in international trade, affect the choice of exchange rate regime?
  • Is there a single model that can or should apply to all developing countries?
  • Will the world evolve into a monetary system with only a few geographic regions within which countries share the same currency?
Discussion Leaders Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation & Economic Growth, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA
Ricardo Hausmann, Chief Economist, Inter-American Development Bank
Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor & Director, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Roberto Zahler, President, Zahler & Co., Chile
Moderator Carola Kaps, Washington Correspondent, Frankfurter Allgemaine Zeitung


11:00-12:30 Bank and Corporate Restructuring After Crises: Which Prescriptions Work Best?

Systemic financial crises have affected banks and corporations in many emerging markets. This session will take stock of the impact of both past and current crises on banks and corporations, review restructuring efforts underway in many emerging markets, and examine what works best.

  • What are the appropriate macro and monetary policies during and after financial crises?
  • What is the role of government in bank and corporate restructuring? What choices arise from dealing with weak financial institutions and poorly governed corporations?
  • Who should bear the costs of restructuring?
  • What types of financial structures are sustainable at the individual institutional and economy-wide levels? When is the operational and financial restructuring deep enough to be sustainable and lead to turnaround?
Discussion Leaders Mark Carawan, Managing Partner, Global Privatization and Emerging Markets Practice, Arthur Andersen, United Kingdom
Hasung Jang, Director, Center for Finance & Banking Research, Korea
Andrei Shleifer, Professor, Department of Economics, Harvard University, USA
Lorenzo Zambrano, Chairman and CEO, CEMEX, S.A., Mexico
Moderator David Lipton, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, USA


11:00-12:30 The Road Less Traveled: Public/Private Partnerships for Development*

Traditionally, provision of public goods was the exclusive work of government. Today, the private sector is increasingly recognizing the profitability of acting in the public interest, working in partnership with the state and civil society. This session will explore what makes these partnerships successful, both at the domestic level and in the international arena; and new opportunities for the private sector to operate in the public domain. Panelists will describe their personal experiences with public and private interests and how they can work together for common goals in areas as diverse as regional economic development, corporate performance and natural resource management. The session will also explore briefly the role of multilateral institutions, and how they might serve as catalysts for these new partnerships.

  • How does the rise of these public-private networks create opportunities for the individual actors involved?
  • How might these networks capitalize on the strengths of individual network actors?
  • What obstacles are public and private organizations confronting as they seek to forge these new alliances?
Discussion Leaders Nick Butler, Group Policy Advisor, BP Amoco plc, United Kingdom
Achim Steiner, Secretary-General, World Commission on Dams, South Africa
Maria Livanos Cattaui Secretary General, International Chamber of Commerce
Moderator Peter Eigen, Chairman of Transparency International, Germany


12:30-1:45 Keynote Luncheon: Results First

Hilde Johnson, Minister of International Development and Human Rights, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway
Moderator to be announced



2:00-3:15 Dealing With Volatility: The Role of Risk Management

The high volatility experienced in developing country financial markets in the past few years has brought issues of risk management to the fore in an unprecedented way. This seminar will address the major lessons that have been learned from recent experience and discuss some possible solutions to unresolved issues.

  • Does widespread use of statistical risk management tools, such as value-at-risk, contribute to increased systemic volatility?
  • Can instruments of liquidity provisions at the national level, such as contingent credit lines, provide effective protection from currency runs?
  • To what extent can new financial instruments offer opportunities for risk-pulling and risk-reduction?
  • What limits, if any, should be placed on risk-taking by institutions that currently are not regulated?
Discussion Leaders Howard Davies, Chairman, Financial Services Authority, United Kingdom
Peter Garber, Global Risk Strategist, Global Markets Research, Deutsche Bank, United Kingdom
Philippe Jorion, Professor, University of California, USA
Pedro Pou, President, Banco Central de la República Argentina
Moderator Danièle Nouy, Secretary General, Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Switzerland


2:00-3:15 Countries' Use of Capital Controls

While significant benefits can follow from capital account liberalization, this option also involves significant risks. The negative impact of massive reversals of capital flows on currency markets in Asia, Russia and Latin America have sparked a renewed debate about the role of capital controls. The crisis that ensued has also raised the question of how best to sequence capital account liberalization in order to reduce the volatility of capital flows.

  • Can capital controls play a useful role in reducing the volatility of capital flows? How should they be structured?
  • How do capital control regimes affect private investors' investment decisions?
Discussion Leaders Zeti Akhtar Aziz, Deputy Governor, Bank Negara, Malaysia
LR. Barry Johnston, Division Chief, Monetary & Exchange Policy Analysis Division, Monetary & Exchange Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund
Miguel Kiguel, Chief of Cabinet of Advisors, Ministry of Economy, Public Works & Services, Argentina
Dani Rodrik, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, USA
Moderator E. Gerald Corrigan, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs & Co., USA


2:00-3:15 Monitoring Financial Systems

Severe financial system problems have recently affected a number of countries including industrial, developing, and transition economies. These problems have impaired the efficiency of financial intermediation and resource allocation; reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy; led to large direct and indirect fiscal costs; triggered economic downturns; exacerbated economic contractions; and created negative spill-over effects for the international community. These experiences demonstrate the close interrelation between financial system stability and macroeconomic policy implementation and performance. A broad consensus has emerged on the need for strengthened monitoring and assessment of the health, maturity and stability of financial and banking systems.

  • What efforts are underway in the international community and by national authorities to assess and address issues of financial system stability?
  • How can vulnerabilities in the financial and supervisory systems that could have significant macroeconomic consequences be identified and monitored?
  • What core principles, standards, and good practices have been developed by the international community to minimize the likelihood and severity of financial crises?
  • How can progress on the implementation of core standards and good practices be monitored?
Discussion Leaders Manuel Conthe, Vice President, Financial Operations and Head of the FPSI Network, World Bank
Arminio Fraga Neto, President, Central Bank of Brazil
Stefan Ingves, Director, Monetary & Exchange Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund, USA
Gregory Root, President, Thomson BankWatch
Moderator Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank


3:45-5:00 Managing Political Risk and Facilitating Foreign Direct Investment

The financial crisis that began in Asia almost two years ago, followed closely by financial adversities faced by countries like Russia and Brazil, resulted in a very uncertain and difficult foreign investment environment. Today, gradual economic recovery through financial restructuring has led to signs of stabilization in a number of Asian economies, boosting investor confidence in the international financial markets. These boom-and-bust cycles can have severe implications for the investing community and also for the recipients of foreign investment flows. What recourse do investors have in mitigating risks in this environment? Key questions that this session will focus on include:

  • What is the role of investment insurance in attracting commercial bank loans critical to large infrastructure projects in these countries?
  • What is the role of private political risk insurance providers in expanding available long-term insurance capacity to meet the rising demands and respond to the needs of investors?
  • To what extent does investment insurance mitigate the political risk concerns associated with investing in some developing countries and economies in transition?
Discussion Leaders John D. Hushon, President, El Paso Energy International Company, USA
Clive Tobin, Chief Executive Officer, XL Capital Ltd., Bermuda
Isabel Martín Castella, Deputy General Manager, Banco Santander Central Hispano, Spain
Moderator Richard Frank, Managing Partner & Chief Operating Officer, Darby Overseas Investments, Ltd., USA


3:45-5:00 The Private Sector, Crisis Prevention and Resolution: Bailing Out or Bailing In?

One of the major lessons of the recent crises is that emergency official assistance to large countries is unlikely to be much help in the face of massive capital outflows. The appropriate role for the private sector in crisis prevention and resolution has become one of the main topics in the international financial architecture debate. Among the proposals under consideration are the modification of rules applying to international bond contracts, the creation of mechanisms to coordinate the actions of creditors, and the ability of the international community to lend to a country in arrears on its external debts, or even to authorize a standstill in payments.

  • Which, if any, of these measures are likely to be implemented?
  • How effective are they likely to be in reducing the risk of crises and their resolution?
  • How will they affect capital flows to emerging markets?
  • What are the respective roles of the private and public sectors in this context?
Discussion Leaders Pablo Guidotti, Secretary of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Argentina
John Lipsky, Chief Economist and Director of Research, The Chase Manhattan Bank, USA
Ernest Stern, Managing Director, J.P. Morgan, USA
Alexander Swoboda, Senior Policy Advisor, Research Department, International Monetary Fund
Moderator Morris Goldstein, Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, USA


3:45-5:00 Private Flows and Social Investments: Laying The Foundation of a New Financial Architecture*

How can economic growth be achieved while at the same time reducing poverty and improving social conditions? This policy question has risen to the forefront of the international community's debate over the need for a new financial architecture in the wake of the recent crises in emerging markets. Experience demonstrates that economic growth policies can and should be accompanied by reductions in inequality and substantial improvements in social conditions, as this approach provides a better climate in the long run for both foreign and local private sector investment.

  • What types of social policies and practices will promote and sustain economic growth?
  • What are the potential effects of these reforms on private investment?
  • What are the implications for national governments and for multilateral agencies?
Discussion Leaders Ricardo Bayón, Founder, the Institute for Finance and Sustainability
Cezary Stypulkowski, President, Bank Handlowy w. Warszawie, Poland
Moderator Mark Malloch Brown, Administrator, United Nations Development Program


5:30-6:30 Keynote: Needed: Two Billion Jobs - The Challenge of Youth Employment
Opening Remarks James D. Wolfensohn, President, The World Bank Group
Keynote Speaker Kofi Annan, Secretary General, United Nations
Moderator Mats Karlsson, Vice President, External Affairs & United Nations Affairs, World Bank


6:30-7:30 Reception



* Public Policy Forum



Please note that Speakers are confirmed as of August 31, 1999 but still subject to change.


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