Video: Is a Global Recession Imminent?

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00:07 There is a narrow path.

00:08 The global economy will escape recession

00:11 and hopefully have a soft landing.

00:14 There are two

00:16 important reasons to worry about

00:18 the possibility of a global recession.

00:20 The first reason is that

00:22 Prior to global recessions,

00:25 you see weakness in the global economy,

00:27 and when you look at the recent activity indicators,

00:31 you do see a very sharp deceleration

00:35 in

00:37 global output.

00:37 In fact,

00:38 we are experiencing

00:40 the steepest

00:41 slowdown in activity.

00:43 That we have seen prior to

00:48 any previous global recession.

00:49 The second important reason,

00:51 of course,

00:52 when you have a global recession,

00:54 you see

00:55 broad-based weakness

00:56 in the main engines of the global economy.

00:59 In this case,

01:00 of course,

01:01 the United States,

01:02 the euro area,

01:03 and China.

01:04 And when you look at these economies since the beginning of the year,

01:08 of course you see.

01:08 That they have been slowing and in some cases slowing sharply.

01:13 Indeed there is significant uncertainty when you look at the

01:17 evolution of activity,

01:19 when you look at the evolution of inflation numbers,

01:21 and when you look at what policymakers are trying to do,

01:26 given that they are in a sense an impossible position

01:29 to

01:30 design policy

01:31 in a highly fluid environment.

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There is a narrow path. The global economy will escape recession and hopefully have a soft landing. There are two important reasons to worry about the possibility of a global recession. The first reason is that Prior to global recessions, you see weakness in the global economy, and when you look at the recent activity indicators, you do see a very sharp deceleration in global output. In fact, we are experiencing the steepest slowdown in activity. That we have seen prior to any previous global recession. The second important reason, of course, when you have a global recession, you see broad-based weakness in the main engines of the global economy. In this case, of course, the United States, the euro area, and China. And when you look at these economies since the beginning of the year, of course you see. That they have been slowing and in some cases slowing sharply. Indeed there is significant uncertainty when you look at the evolution of activity, when you look at the evolution of inflation numbers, and when you look at what policymakers are trying to do, given that they are in a sense an impossible position to design policy in a highly fluid environment.

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worldbank/2022-09-14-1230 Ayhan GR Tease Clip EN

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2022-09-14-1230 Ayhan GR Tease Clip EN

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2022-09-14-1230 Ayhan GR Tease Clip EN

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