Монгол Улс

In 2012, Mongolia's economy continued to experience a high growth rate of 12.3 percent. This growth rate was however lower than anticipated as Mongolia saw its coal... Дэлгэрэнгүй + exports drop significantly due to China's economic slowdown. Most noticeably, Mongolia had to finance a large fiscal deficit of 8.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), a record in the last 13 years. It is concerning that similar fiscal trends might continue in 2013 with the economy growing at a double-digit rate but also accumulating another large fiscal deficit. As Mongolia embarks on its largest infrastructure investments ever which can be in part financed through a first successful sovereign Chinggis bonds issuance- greater attention has to be paid: (i) to preparing those investments rigorously to ensure maximum socioeconomic return and avoid potential wastage of public resources; and (ii) to reflecting their financing transparently in the national budget. Багасгах -

Ulaanbaatar's (UB) population has swollen from half a million in 2001 to approximately 1.2 million in 2011, accounting for over 40 percent of the country's populati... Дэлгэрэнгүй + on. This trend is likely to continue as economic growth is increasingly concentrated in UB. With its growing population and concerns in rising inequality, the city is facing increasing pressure to maintain and expand service provision (especially infrastructure). The local tax on wages is expected to continue to provide substantial revenues to the UB government, which will assist the growing demand for services. Additionally, a new 'capital city tax' is expected to come into effect in 2013. The decision of the central government (CG) to pursue further decentralization gives greater leadership to the UB government and its districts. It also provides local broader decision-making authority as well as opportunity for citizen's participation and for the improvement of governance and transparency. Therefore, a key challenge for UB and its districts is ensuring that the local fiscal system is sound and ready to handle a greater volume of revenues to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth. The city also needs to develop a robust and transparent fiscal management system if it is to make an effective use of new revenue sources. The main objective of this study is to understand the inner workings of the municipal finance system in Ulaanbaatar and its districts. Багасгах -

As Mongolia has begun to develop its abundant mineral resources over the past decade, the share of mining in gross domestic product (GDP) has more than tripled to a... Дэлгэрэнгүй + round 20 percent currently. The sector has also contributed up to a third of total government receipts in recent years and more than 80 percent of exports in 2010. Evidence suggests that women tend to miss out on the potential benefits associated with a booming mining sector. In addition, large scale mines typically tend to be the dominant employers in remote locations. The policy note starts by gauging potential growth and employment effects associated with the expansion of the mining sector on other sectors, using a computable general equilibrium model specially calibrated for the Mongolian economy. It then considers experience and lessons from other countries that are trying to integrate and ensure the participation of women in large-scale mining and the practical policy recommendations to do so. The key findings are that there is a high degree of occupational segmentation in the mining sector, with women mostly located in service support roles, although this is by no means unique to Mongolia. However in Mongolia's case, this segmentation also likely reflects Mongolian labor regulations that existed until 2008 and which limited women’s participation in the sector. Evidence from around the world indicates that gender equal laws are a necessary and crucial first step towards guaranteeing gender equality and equity, but by themselves are not sufficient. Companies may also consider revising recruitment or hiring strategies with the objective of raising the share of female employment across all professional categories in the mining sector. Багасгах -

The World Bank's Mongolia quarterly economic update assesses recent economic and social developments and policies in Mongolia. It also presents findings of ongoing ... Дэлгэрэнгүй + World Bank activities in Mongolia. The Mongolian economy is at the start of a huge expansion as it begins to develop its mineral wealth. The construction of the Oyu Tolgoi (OT) copper-gold mine-among the five largest in the world-lifted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth above 17 percent in 2011 and the economy has since continued to grow in double-digits, albeit at a slower pace. The economy however, faces significant risks in the near term, as reflected in the steep drop in exports in July and August. These risks reflect an uncertain global economic outlook and slowing growth in China, and pro-cyclical fiscal policy over the past three years with large increases in government spending contributing to high inflation and pressure on the balance of payments. The 2013 budget, being discussed in the on-going fall session of Parliament presents an opportunity to mitigate these risks by reining in spending and anchoring fiscal policy to the fiscal stability law that goes into effect on January 1, 2013. Growth slowed in Q2 to 11 percent year-on-year from 16.5 percent in Q1, but should remain in double digits for 2012 as a whole, barring any severe negative shock. Accordingly growth is likely to slow further in the second half of the year and the outturn for the year as a whole is likely to be close to 12 percent barring any negative shocks to the global economy. If however, substantial downside risks to the global economy do materialize then growth could be lower, at below 10 percent. Багасгах -

This technical note summarizes findings and recommendations on measures for the strengthening of the capital markets in Mongolia. The authorities have taken bold st... Дэлгэрэнгүй + eps in the last two years to modernize the Mongolian Stock Exchange (MSE) and put in place modern legal, regulatory and market infrastructure for the capital market. Improving the institutional, regulatory and supervisory framework is a key priority, and the enactment of a new securities market law should lay a sound foundation for the regulation and supervision of the securities markets. However, its current draft has several gaps that should be addressed. Nonetheless, development of the domestic securities market in Mongolia should take into account the inherent problems for small markets, because a central feature of the securities market is economies of scale. Currently, the local capital market is not representative of the full universe of Mongolian enterprises that are operating in the country at present. As a result, it may be difficult to attract foreign investors interest if the country's most attractive firms are not listed domestically. One of the most important elements for a strong domestic capital market is a diversified institutional investor base, and the regulatory agencies involved should pursue a concerted strategy toward developing the investor base. Mongolia needs to provide an enabling environment to attract a diverse range of institutional investors participation, including investors from abroad. Багасгах -

Mongolia's economy has embarked on a very high, long-term growth trajectory. To realize fully its economic potential, Mongolia needs to build a diversified, efficie... Дэлгэрэнгүй + nt and stable financial system, capable of intermediating both on a large scale and in specific market segments. Access to financial services in Mongolia is relatively high when measured by the demographic penetration of branches. The aim of this technical note is to assess the level of access to finance in Mongolia, and especially for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), to identify key obstacles to improving access, and to provide recommendations to overcome these obstacles. The technical note is organized as follows. Section one provides a broad overview of the macroeconomic environment and is followed by section two on the status of access to finance in Mongolia. Section three discusses products and market segments. Section four examines the supply of financial services by analyzing the role of key market players. Section five examines the demand for financial services by drawing on enterprise surveys to assess firms perceptions of their access to finance, and analyzes financing conditions for MSMEs. Section six examines obstacles in the regulatory, supervisory framework, and financial infrastructure for access to finance. Section seven describes the main government programs related to access to finance. In conclusion, section eight provides policy recommendations for overcoming obstacles to enhancing access to finance. Багасгах -

As the Mongolian mortgage market grows rapidly, and the Government of Mongolia (GoM) pursues an ambitious social housing agenda, there is an urgent need for a holis... Дэлгэрэнгүй + tic sector approach. The following three key areas require attention from policymakers: first, there is a need to better balance housing supply and demand, which requires the authorities to focus on prudent mortgage lending standards and supervision, as well as on provision of housing infrastructure and zoned land. Second, it will be important to ensure effective implementation of ongoing and planned public housing finance programs, with a focus on preventing mortgage market distortions in pricing, emphasizing robust planning and rigorous transparency and governance. Third, authorities should aim for better balance in the composition of mortgage funding, with a focus on improvement in the legal and regulatory framework for capital markets, as well as Mongolian Mortgage Corporation (MIK) governance, products and operations. The Mongolian mortgage market is exhibiting strong growth, with portfolio outstanding increasing by 190 percent to Mongolian Tughrik (MNT) 656 billion (US$482 million) between 2009 and end-2011. This represents 8 percent of 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) and 12 percent of the 2011 banking loan book. The sector is highly concentrated, with top 4 lenders accounting for 89 percent of the market, as well as spatially in and around Ulaanbaatar. Housing prices have risen sharply in the last two years, particularly in 2011, when the increase for the predominantly mortgaged market segment was over 36 percent. While mortgage lending growth rates are consistent with the overall growth of household credit, real estate prices significantly outpaced Consumer Price Index (CPI) and GDP growth in 2011. Currently non-performing loans (NPL) are very low due to the unseasoned mortgage portfolio; however, high debt-to-income (DTI) ratio levels may exacerbate future loan age-related and cyclical delinquency increases. Due in part to extreme climatic constraints, shortage of zoned and serviced land, and infrastructure bottlenecks, housing supply is severely constrained. Large-scale, publicly-funded, subsidized housing initiatives, such as the '100,000 Apartments' Program, need to be carefully planned, so that they cause minimal distortion to the broader housing finance market. Багасгах -

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in ... Дэлгэрэнгүй + 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices. Багасгах -

Air pollution has major health impacts on people living in Ulaanbaatar. The excessively high particulate matter concentrations, especially in the winter and in the ... Дэлгэрэнгүй + ger areas, increase the incidence of heart and lung diseases, and lead to premature deaths. Improving air quality management in Ulaanbaatar and reducing pollution concentrations would prevent illnesses, save lives and avoid enormous health costs. The implementation of the Air Monitoring and Health Impact Baseline (AMHIB) study has brought together Mongolian and international air quality experts as well as public health experts and economists who have taken an synergetic approach of linking public health, air quality and economic issues. This report builds upon the discussion paper air pollution in Ulaanbaatar: initial assessment of current situation and effects of abatement measures that was published in December 2009, and reflects the final results and recommendations from the AMHIB project. Багасгах -

The assessments were carried out during the Second International Mongolian Biodiversity Databank Workshop from the 11th to 15th September 2006. The assessments reve... Дэлгэрэнгүй + aled a number of trends affecting the amphibians and reptiles of Mongolia. Six Mongolian reptile and amphibian species were identified as regionally threatened. These summary conservation action plans are intended to highlight species of particular concern, and to alert policy-makers, conservationists, and government and planning authorities of actions that will help to ensure that all reptiles and amphibians of Mongolia maintain viable populations into the future. Detailed action plans are already in place for some of the species in this document; the summary conservation action plans for Mongolian reptiles and amphibians are not intended to replace these documents, but to accompany them, and further details are provided for action plans already available. Each summary conservation action plan presents information about the status of the species, the current known distribution, threats faced, conservation measures presently established, and recommended conservation measures. The future of Mongolia's herpetological biodiversity depends on the response of the Mongolian and global community to the plight of the species discussed in these summary conservation action plans.
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