Water Security Policies and
Global Systems for
Water-Scarce Regions

Perceptions of natural resources are changing rapidly in the 1990s. Until 1986, all Middle East economies were driven by the belief that additional water had to be mobilized to meet the rising demands for agricultural, industrial and domestic water. In the mid-1980s, Israel changed its policy sharply, following protracted scientific and technical discourses in the diverse communities which use and allocate water. As a result, it cut its water allocations to agriculture, and further reinforced policies and practices which increased the water use efficiency in this sector. In addition, the experience of the rest of the region is globally significant: In fact, the ways in which these economies adapt to water shortages and adjust in regional relations provide lessons for other regions which will face similar problems as population increases lead to further demands on their water resources.

There are major political challenges associated with the adoption of any new radical policy because they affect livelihoods and communities and are not readily implemented by political leadership. One of the aims of this paper is to show how national rhetoric on water, for both domestic and international consumption, is often echoed in publicly declared water policy. On the other hand, the actual economic measures taken by governments to meet their water deficits will be shown to differ widely from the water rhetoric and declared water policy. Moreover, a number of important features of the water sector must be understood before either the rhetoric or the substance of water management can be analyzed.

The first is the structure of water demand. Each individual needs annually about one cubic meter for drinking, ideally about 100 cubic meter for other domestic use and about 1000 cubic meter to produce their food needs. The water devoted to domestic use varies widely from economy to economy and within economies. In the Middle East, for example, figures range from as low as 27 cubic meter per head per year for Palestinians to an estimated average use by Israelis of between 100 and 150 cubic meter per year. Industrial use per capita is modest and, even in the most industrialized country in the region, it averages only about 20 cubic meter per person per year.

The discourse on water, both within a single political economy and at the international level, does not include in its vocabulary "virtual water," which is the most significant water for most Middle East countries in terms of the key issue of volume. "Virtual water" is defined as the water required to provide the essential food imports needed by an economy. It requires 1000 tons (1000 cubic meter) of water to produce a ton of grain. An individual needs approximately the equivalent of one ton of grain per year. Because it is much easier to move a ton of grain than 1000 tons of water, world trade in food staples is the means by which water-deficit economies balance their water budgets. "Virtual water" plus indigenous water enables national water needs to be met. It follows then that other parts of a national economy produce the means to address the water deficits of economies.

Hydrological models: Determining of
neither current nor future economic status

For an environmental scientist to de-emphasize the role of the water and river basin models in the economic development of a region such as the Middle East is to contradict deeply held assumptions. River basin models have been widely accepted because they have a profound intuitive appeal. As a result, it is has taken many years to identify the reasons for the models’ poor explanatory role in the real world of resource management. It has been especially difficult to explain their poor record in providing a convincing basis for cooperative action and legal agreements.

The hydrological nature of river basins pose just one group of problems for governments which have to deal with "problemsheds" rather than watersheds. Hydrological systems at the level of the Middle East and the management of river basins by national governments and international institutions are subordinate to the national and international political economies of which they are a part. They are essentially segmented, closed systems. However, they bring important resources — such as water — to national and international economies which are open systems, and it is in these open systems that substitutes for indigenous river basin water can be accessed.

There is, however, a level at which a hydrological model could make a contribution to the analysis of the Middle East's water problems. A model of global water — including soil water — availability would be helpful by assisting in the determination of the global agricultural system capacity to produce staple foods. Such a model would assist in determining the capacity of the global agricultural system to produce staple foods. At this stage, it is only possible to point to the need to research this grand topic.

Efficient water resource use

The notion that water is an economic resource has rapidly gained currency in the international community since 1991. These ideas contradict the deeply held user expectations that water should be a free entitlement. The idea that water should continue to be free in agriculture has also been widely articulated in arid and humid regions alike.

The two economic principles which are particularly relevant to water allocation and management are allocative and productive efficiency, both of which comply with the sound principle of increasing returns to water. Unfortunately, the subject of the reallocation of water normally precipitates intense political reaction from those who perceive they might lose by the change.

At the national level, the significance of allocative and productive efficiency is readily illustrated by the comparison of the gross figures for the proportions of water used in various sectors of an economy and the relevant GDP figures related to such allocations. In the early 1990s, Egypt allocated about 80 percent of its water consumption to agriculture which generated less than 20 percent of its GDP. The remaining 20 percent supported all the other livelihoods and provided the population’s domestic and municipal water needs, as well as contributed to 83 percent of the GDP.

The most important measure of the economic efficiency of water allocation and management in the Middle East is the extent to which small amounts of water are effectively used to mobilize elements of the economy to produce goods and services. These in turn generate foreign exchange with which to gain access to water and/or "virtual water." However, the process of reallocation has not yet been carried far enough in most Middle Eastern economies, but it is becoming increasingly recognized that there is no alternative. The principle of productive efficiency is much more readily adopted than that of allocative efficiency because while increases in productive efficiency require investment and changes of practice, the introduction of more productively efficient water management does not generate political stress.

Factor equalization and
the regional water and food gap

There is a close relationship between a national water gap and the nation’s food gap. The greatest management challenge facing those countries in arid regions attempting to steer the political economy of water is how to access sufficient water to meet staple food needs. Providing one cubic meter per person per year of drinking water is rarely an unmanageable challenge in the Middle East and North Africa. Accessing the 1000 times multiple to produce the annual staple food needs of an individual has proved to be beyond most such economies. Water is a major factor of production in agriculture, and its relative availability in different climatic zones ensures that some economies have a significant comparative advantage in the food staples production.

The contrast in the capacities to produce food surpluses is given stark expression in the world trade figures. In the decades since the middle of the twentieth century, agricultural sectors of industrialized economies located in the temperate climatic regions have progressively increased their productivity in grain production. Such production and productivity gains have been achieved with water which falls freely on the land surface and where soil moisture regimes naturally regulate moisture in the soil profile to meet the needs of crop growth.

While almost all the Middle Eastern economies ceased to feed themselves by the early 1970s, the much more numerous populations of China and India have been able to maintain per capita food availability and have not — in the case of China — needed to import food staples until recently. The economies of the Middle East are as dependent on the externality of the capacities of the economies of China and India to feed themselves as on any measures to manage water taken within the Middle East region.

Environmental resources and development:
The Karshenas model

General models of resource use and management have evolved over the past twenty years based on the elusive concept of sustainability. These approaches tended to assume closed systems where a resource degraded by using it beyond its capacity to recover would lead to terminal ecological and economic events. In such analyses, it has been generally assumed that development was a negative factor with respect to the long-term status of environmental resources.

An alternative and much more realistic model of the utilization of environmental resources within a development context is the "Karshenas model." This model can be readily communicated and, more importantly, it contributes to explaining and predicting the nature of the political economy of water in the extreme political, economic and water deficit circumstances. The model shows that all development has to some extent been undertaken at the expense of environmental capital. It recognizes, however, that the deployment of ecological principles should be emphasized. The challenge is achieving a sound balance between economic and ecological priorities.

Why legal regimes are resisted by
the major players in regional relations

Because Middle Eastern and North African economies can gain access to very inexpensive water from food imports, these economies have avoided the stress deriving from water deficits which many analysts have predicted would bring intense conflict. However, in the absence of severe economic crises deriving from a water shortage, the minds of the potentially contending leaderships have not needed to focus on legal principles and the cooperation to which consideration of them might lead. Not until 1994-95, in the spate of agreements stemming from the Peace Process including those over water, has water figured in regional international agreements. If these agreements prove to be durable, it will be because of the international relations regimes rather than the application of legal principles on water sharing.

The rationale behind international lawyers powerlessness to steer the political economies in which shared water plays such a major role deserves analysis. The numerous rules which have come from the deliberations of members of the International Law Association appear to be soundly based on principles of hydrology and environmental science. That the river basin should be the starting point for the analyses of water allocation and management, as well as the inspiration for the most important principles for sharing such water has proved to be a problem rather than the solution in cooperative initiatives over water.

While hydrology is a sensible starting point in terms of understanding the physical system, it is only a minor element in the international political economies in which individual economies are involved. International law is best conceived as an instrument in a rapport de forces that is dynamic and changing, but that is not itself legally determined. It is not surprising, therefore, that the deliberations of international lawyers — advised for the most part by hydrologists and engineers — have had little impact on regional water relations because they have ignored the crucial responsive dynamic element in the rapport, namely the trading practices which enable food and water needs to be met. Very constructive contributions to the problem of water scarcity and water sharing would be made by international specialists in water law if they were to put their energies into improving the legal basis for trading water internationally. They should especially devote their energies to developing institutions and procedures which facilitate and stabilize the global trade in scarce or potentially scarce water intensive commodities such as staple foods.

New water allocation policies:
Political explanations of rates of adoption

Most peoples and governments would prefer to be self-sufficient in food rather than depending on imports, and their rhetoric reflects this desire. Those making policy, however, are silent on the issue of "virtual water" and prepare policy as if their economies have not yet run out of water. They speak of increasing allocations of water to agriculture despite their limited real national water budgets. But these are understandable positions in the light of the expectations of rural communities allied with elite interests whose livelihoods or wealth depend on irrigation systems based on surface and groundwater. It transpires that economically unrealistic positions can be adopted on water at the same time as the real problem of the food deficit is being addressed via the highly efficient world trading system in food staples. Recourse to this market has for the past three decades been very advantageous for "virtual water" importers as the traded grains have been subsidized on average by about 30 percent by the producers supervised by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the European Community.

With such a major dependence on world trade, Middle Eastern governments and their research departments should be as devoted to understanding the European Union's Common Agriculture Policy and the USDA's support systems as well as their own water resources. The World Trade Organization’s capacity to moderate international trade is another key factor. It has been suggested — somewhat misleadingly — that the consequences of the Uruguay Round multilateral trade agreement would reduce subsidies on exports of grains from a 1986-90 base by 36 percent — that is, 36 percent of about 30 percent of Middle Eastern countries are amongst those which will be adversely affected by the latest Uruguay Round. However, prices for some protected commodities including wheat and rice could increase by between 4 and 10 percent by the year 2003. It is clear that the complex reality of managing a national water resource will not be understood by looking at indigenous water alone. Unfortunately, the international market in staple grains has proved very unpredictable. Wheat prices rose rapidly in 1995 by about 60 percent as a result of a combination of anxiety about global stocks and the evident demand from China which was viewed as a possible long-term feature.

Conclusion

Despite needing twice as much water and, in some cases, four times as much as is available, the individual political economies of the Middle East have adapted to the shortages and have not resorted to confidently predicted conflicts. In the future, it is strongly recommended that the governments facing water shortages must work at two levels: First, they should continue to improve the productive and allocative efficiency in the use of their own water. Second, as they become pivotal consumers of "virtual water" in global trade, it is essential that they investigate the extent to which they can ensure the delivery of entitlements to food for their peoples in the future by cooperative participation in global trade in grain.

Further Readings

Allan, J. A. 1989. "Water Resources Evaluation and Development in Libya: 1969-1989." Libyan Studies, Vol. 20.

–––. 1994. "Overall Perspectives on Countries and Regions." In Rogers, P. and Lydon, P., eds. Water in the Arab World: Perspectives and Prognoses. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.

–––. 1996a. "The Political Economy of Water in the Jordan Basin: Reasons for Optimism But Long Term Caution." In Allan, J.A. and Court, J.H.O., Water, Peace and the Middle East: Negotiating Resources in the Jordan Basin. London: Tauris Academic Studies.

––– 1996b. "The Jordan Israel Peace Agreement - September 1994." Appendixes 1 and 2. In Allan, J. A., Water, Peace and the Middle East: Negotiating Resources in the Jordan Basin. London: Tauris Academic Studies

––– 1996c. "The Israel-PLO Interim Agreement - September 1995." Appendixes 3 and 4. In Allan, J. A., Water, Peace and the Middle East: Negotiating Resources in the Jordan Basin. London: Tauris Academic Studies: 223-240.

Brandao, A. S. P. and Martin, Wm. 1993. "Implications of Agricultural Trade Liberalization for the Developing Countries." Agricultural Economics. Vol. 8, June 1993.

Dyson, T. 1994. "Population Growth and Food Production: Recent Global and Regional Trends." Population and Development Review (20)2: 403.

FAO. 1993. The State of Food and Agriculture. Rome.

Feitelson, E. and Haddad, M. eds. 1994. Joint Management of Shared Aquifers. Harry S Truman Research Institute, Hebrew University and the Palestinian Consultancy Group, Jerusalem. November 1994.

Fisher, F. M. 1994. The Economic Framework for Water Negotiation and Management. The Harvard Middle East Water Project. Cambridge: Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University Press.

Fisher, F. M. 1994b. "Removing Water as a Source of Conflict." Middle East International: 6 January 1995: 20-21.

Jellali, M. and Jebali, A. 1994. "Water Resource Development in the Maghreb Countries." In Rogers, P. and Lydon, P., eds. Water in the Arab World: Perspectives and Prognoses. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press: 147-170.

Karshenas, M. 1994. "Environment, Technology and Employment: Towards a New Definition of Sustainable Development." Development and Change (25) 2: 723-757.

Le Heron, R. 1993. Globalized Agriculture. Oxford: Pergamon Press.

Le Heron, R. and Roche, M. 1995. "A Fresh Place in Food's Space." Area (27) 1: 23-33.

MEWREW. 1995. Middle East and Africa Water Review, London: SOAS Water Issues Group, http://www.soas.ac.uk/geography/waterissues/.

Naff, T. and Matson, R. 1984. Water in the Middle East: Conflict or Co-operation. Boulder, Colorado: Westview Press.

Nasser, Y. 1995. "Palestinian Management Options and Challenges within an Environment of Scarcity and Power Imbalance." In Allan, J. A, ed. Water in the Jordan Catchment Countries. London: Tauris Academic Press: 45-57.

OECD. 1989. Water Resources Management: Integrated Policies. Paris.

Pierce, J.T. 1990. The Food Resource. Harlow: Longman Group.

Schiffler, M. et al. 1994. Water Demand Management in an Arid Country: The Case of Jordan with Reference to Industry. Berlin: German Development Institute.

Waterbury, J. 1994. "Transboundary Water and the Challenge of International Co-operation in the Middle East." In Rogers, P. and Lydon, P. Water in the Arab World: Perspectives and Prognoses. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.

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