The East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region continued its gradual adjustment to slower but more balanced growth. Regional growth slipped to 6.9 percent in 2014 as a result of policy tightening and political tensions that offset a rise in exports in line with the ongoing recovery in some high-income economies. The medium-term outlook is for a further easing of growth to 6.7 percent in 2015 and a stable outlook thereafter reflecting a gradual slowdown in China that starts to be offset by a pickup in the rest of the region in 2016-17. In China, structural reforms, a gradual withdrawal of fiscal stimulus, and continued prudential measures to slow credit expansion will result in slowing growth to 6.9 percent by 2017 from 7.4 percent in 2014. In the rest of the region, growth will strengthen to 5.5 percent by 2017 supported by firming exports, improved political stability, and strengthening investment. Adjustment to softer commodity prices will continue to weigh on growth of the commodity exporters of the region. A stalled global recovery, a sharp slowdown in China, financial market volatility, and eventual tightening of global financing conditions represent key risks to the regional outlook.
East Asia and Pacific regional forecast
(annual percent change unless indicated otherwise)
Source: World Bank World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.
a. Growth rates over intervals are compound weighted averages; average growth contributions, ratios and deflators are calculated as simple averages of the annual weighted averages for the region.
b. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.
c. Sub-region aggregate excludes Fiji, Myanmar and Timor-Leste, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components or Balance of Payments details.
d. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).
East Asia and the Pacific country forecasts
(Real GDP growth at market prices in percent and current account balance in percent of GDP, unless indicated otherwise)
Source: World Bank World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.
Samoa; Tuvalu; Kiribati; Democratic People's Republic of Korea; Marshall Islands; Micronesia, Federated States; N. Mariana Islands; Palau; and Tonga are not forecast owing to data limitations.
a. GDP growth rates over intervals are compound average; current account balance shares are simple averages over the period.
b. The start of production at Papua-New-Guinea-Liquefied Natural Gas (PNG-LNG) is expected to boost PNG's GDP growth to 16 percent and shift the current account to a surplus in 2015.
c. Non-oil GDP. Timor-Leste's total GDP, including the oil economy, is roughly four times the non-oil economy, and highly volatile, sensitive to changes to global oil prices and local production levels.