Warsaw, 27 April 2018 – Economic growth in 2018 in Poland is projected to reach 4.2 percent, compared to 4.6 percent last year. Solid growth will be fueled by private consumption and investments. Looking ahead, the Polish economy will probably grow at less than 4 percent - with 3.7 percent growth forecast in 2019 and 3.5 percent in 2020, according to the latest World Bank data.
In its January forecast, the World Bank projected that Poland’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would increase by 4.0 percent in 2018, 3.5 percent in 2019, and 3.1 percent in 2020.
“We decided to slightly raise our expectations of Poland’s growth dynamics. Record-low unemployment is stimulating wage increases and supporting consumption. Also, investments are trending up,” says Carlos Piñerúa, World Bank Country Manager for Poland and the Baltic States. “On the other hand, some risks have come to attention, such as labor force shortages in certain sectors like construction or IT. Additionally, in the medium term, the outlook for public finance may deteriorate due to large social spending and shifting demographics. Also, election time is drawing near, which often stimulates spending.”
The World Bank anticipates a 2.0 percent budget deficit in 2018 and forecasts that the deficit may approach the 3 percent threshold in 2020. The current-account is likely to return to a small deficit of 0.3 percent of GDP in 2018, as opposed to a small surplus in 2017, as robust household consumption, higher investment, and a firming in global commodity markets push the volume and cost of imports up.