Research Insights

Welcome to the first edition of Research Insights – a space to bring you closer to our team’s cutting-edge studies and insights.

In this issue, explore how India’s public works program, MNREGA, successfully reduced groundwater depletion, how a large-scale preschool construction initiative in Mozambique is boosting enrollment and educational outcomes, and how electoral turnover is improving service delivery in Indonesian villages.

These three studies span very different topics in development, but together they highlight the importance of strengthening capacities and civil engagement at subnational levels to achieve meaningful impact at scale.

Event materials, news and call for papers below.

Two Brids with One Stone? The Impact of MNREGA on Groundwater in India A. Patrick Behrer, Hemant Pullabhotla
© John Isaac / World Bank	Established in 2005, India’s MNREGA program is the largest public works program in the world. Its primary goal is the provision of rural employment, but it also has important secondary objectives such as the building of rural infrastructure. This research highlights how surface water infrastructure funded by MNREGA significantly improved groundwater recharge, particularly in states with robust implementation. By enhancing groundwater availability, MNREGA not only boosted irrigation during the dry season but also enabled farmers to shift to higher-value crops and increase their revenues. These findings highlight that public works programs can successfully achieve critical secondary objectives like reducing groundwater depletion while they ameliorate rural poverty and unemployment. Read more >
Investing in Early Childhood: A Model for Scalability and Sustainability in Mozambique Marina Bassi, Bruno Besbas, Lelys Dinarte-Diaz, Saravana Ravindran, Ana Reynoso
© Farhat / World Bank	In rural Mozambique, a large-scale preschool construction program, which included hiring local instructors and offering parenting education, had positive impacts on beneficiary communities. Children living in these communities were significantly more likely to be enrolled in preschool, progress to primary school, and report higher cognitive and socio-emotional skills, compared to children in non-beneficiary areas. For rural and underserved communities where access to early childhood education remains a challenge, this study shows that strategically placed schools, coupled with community-based solutions, can improve enrollment rates and educational outcomes at scale. Read more >
New Village Leadership, New Bureaucratic Energy: How Electoral Turnover Impacts Performance Samuel Bazzi, Masyhur Hilny, Benjamin Marx, Mahvish Shaukat, Andreas Stegmann
© Nugroho Nurdikiawan Sunjoyo / World Bank	Local authorities manage services that impact people’s daily lives, such as water access, garbage collection, and street lighting. Evidence from over 500 villages across Indonesia shows that turnover in local elections reshapes the bureaucracy by inducing staff reshuffling (hiring, demotions, and reallocations) and by reducing the prevalence of nepotistic networks. Bureaucrats under new leadership exert more effort and interact with citizens more frequently, leading to better alignment of citizen-bureaucrat beliefs and higher levels of service delivery. By analyzing the role of electoral turnover in strengthening local governance, this research shows the pathway through which citizen engagement can improve accountability in service provision. Read more >

🔂 Did You Miss It? Replay:

• Policy Research Talk (11/26): “Designing Better Green Finance: Insights for the Next Generations of Sustainable Investment”

📆 Interested in more events? Check out our Policy Research Talks calendar!

📰 News and Calls for Papers:

• The Market Research Society (MRS) awarded the Best Financial Services Research honor to the World Bank and Gallup for the Global Findex. "The Global Findex has been a priceless tool, helping development institutions to better understand and define and track their financial inclusion strategies," judges write.
• HUMANS Lacea Network – submission deadline December 15^th, 2024
• International Seminar on Trade (ISoT) – submission deadline January 24^th, 2025

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Ahead of the International Day of Education on January 24th, the second edition of Research Insights brings you a curated selection of studies addressing critical areas of education policy, with evidence spanning both global and country levels.

On the global front, a large-scale review of over 200 educational interventions across 52 countries identifies cost-effective strategies to boost learning outcomes, while a meta-analysis of studies from 20 countries highlights the exceptional returns on investment in preprimary education.

At the country level, evidence from Colombia illustrates how school enrollment can dramatically reduce cognitive disparities among migrant children, while findings from Ethiopia reveal how climate change, through rising temperatures, poses a significant challenge to student performance.

The evidence provided in these studies emphasizes the importance of investing in early education, designing cost-effective strategies, integrating migrant communities, and supporting those affected by climate change to ensure all children reach their full potential.

What moves the needle in education? Identifying Cost-Effective Interventions using a Unified Metric  Noam Angrist, David K. Evans, Deon Filmer (Development Research Group), Rachel Glennerster, Halsey Rogers (Education Global Department), Shwetlena Sabarwal (Education Global Department)
© Maria Fleischmann / World Bank	With limited budgets, policymakers in low- and middle-income countries face tough choices about how to improve education outcomes. This review compares the impact of over 200 educational interventions across 52 countries on the Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling (LAYS), a unified metric for measuring education access and quality. Interventions like targeting instruction to students' learning levels and structured pedagogy approaches can be up to ten times more cost-effective than traditional methods. Information campaigns on education returns and health interventions (e.g. deworming pills) are also top performers. This study highlights high-potential interventions and shows the value of using a unified metric to guide policymakers in making data-driven, cost-effective investments in education.  Read more >
Reducing developmental gaps among migrant children and adolescents in Colombia Tatiana Hiller, Andrés Moya, Sandra V. Rozo (Development Research Group)
© Charlotte Kesl / World Bank	Limited access to essential services, such as schooling, significantly hampers the development of migrant children and adolescents. Drawing on a novel longitudinal dataset of Venezuelan migrants aged 5 to 17 in the host city of Medellin, this study reveals substantial delays in physical and cognitive development compared to their local peers. Among various interventions, school enrollment has the most profound impact, reducing cognitive disparities by more than half. The findings highlight the critical role of public services and regularization programs in addressing developmental gaps, particularly in education, and offer valuable insights for designing inclusive policies to support displaced children.  Read more >
The ROI of preprimary education: Evidence from 57 studies across 20 countries Alaka Holla (Human Development Chief Economist Office), Magdalena Bendini (LAC Education), Lelys Dinarte-Diaz (Development Research Group), Iva Trako (DIME)
© Matluba Mukhamedova / World Bank	This meta-analysis highlights the transformative potential of preprimary education. Programs that expand access significantly increase participation, particularly among disadvantaged children, while boosting cognitive and socioemotional skills. In low- and middle-income contexts, their impact goes beyond the primary years. An economic analysis reveals that even under conservative assumptions, the benefit-to-cost ratios for these programs range from 3.5 to 103.5, underscoring their value as a smart investment. Thus, an increase in spending on preprimary education coverage and quality may improve the overall efficiency of education spending, particularly if it targets children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. Read more >
High Temperatures, Lower Test Scores: Evidence from Ethiopia Bhavya Srivastava, Kibrom Tafere (Development Research Group), A. Patrick Behrer (Development Research Group)
© Sarah Farhat / World Bank	Climate change is not just an environmental issue—it’s a learning crisis. Using data from over 2 million test-takers in Ethiopia, this study shows that high temperatures during the school year significantly reduce students’ performance in national university entrance exams. Students in cooler regions, who are less acclimated to heat, are more affected than their counterparts in hotter regions. The impact on female students is smaller, possibly due to higher resilience or greater effort under high-stakes conditions. The findings emphasize the urgent need for climate adaptation measures in education, such as improving ventilation and investing in cooling technologies in schools to mitigate the detrimental effects of rising temperatures on learning outcomes. Read more >

📅 Upcoming Events:

• Policy Research Talk (28/01): “Purchasing Prosperity: The Economics of Government Procurement”

📰News and Call for Papers:

• “Generosity is not only an expression of empathy but an investment in building a cohesive global community where everyone can thrive.” Michael Woolcock (Development Research Group) on the rationale of giving for The Life You Can Save.
• Conference on “Improving Well-being Measurement in Data-challenged Environments in Developing Countries for Better Evidence-based Policies” (October 2-3, Hanoi, Vietnam). Submission deadline: January 31, 2025.
• The Eleventh Conference of the Society for The Study of Economic Inequality (ECINEQ) (July 9-11, Washington DC). Submission deadline: February 15, 2025.

🔎 Looking for more resources? Explore the Roundup of Education Research from the Development Research Group and visit the Poverty, Inequality, and Human Development Team website to access a diverse number of studies on early childhood development, education/skills, health, poverty, inequality, labor, and more.

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As World Bank President Ajay Banga has emphasized, jobs don’t exist in isolation—they require both prepared workers and accessible opportunities. This edition of Research Insights explores both sides of this challenge, examining supply-side policies that equip workers with skills while addressing barriers that constrain labor demand.

On the supply side, research on job training and search assistance highlights interventions that link job training to market demand, help workers credibly signal skills, and support job seekers in exploring opportunities beyond their immediate surroundings.

On the demand side, interventions that promote structural transformation can generate more and better jobs. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the dominance of small, informal firms limits productivity and formal job creation —underscoring the importance of reducing formalization costs and market distortions that prevent firms from growing. Meanwhile, in Vietnam’s poorest districts, efforts to expand nonfarm employment reveal the importance of connecting rural workers to markets and credit.

Macroeconomic stability is also essential. Research on Brazil’s economy following the 2008 financial crisis shows how job losses and wage reductions can persist for years, emphasizing the need for stronger income support and employment policies.

Together, these studies offer practical insights to support jobseekers, foster firm growth, and build resilience against economic shocks—critical steps toward ensuring a future with more and better jobs.

What Are the Most Promising Avenues for Government Involvement in Job Training and Job Search?  Eliana Carranza (Social Protection and Jobs Unit) and David McKenzie (Development Research Group)
© Dominic Chavez / World Bank	Government-led job training and job search assistance programs often have limited impact on overall employment levels, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. This study highlights innovative strategies where government interventions can play a meaningful role. Linking job training to market demand—by focusing on high-demand skills or using results-based funding models—has shown promise in improving employment outcomes. For job search, interventions that encourage jobseekers to explore new locations, provide targeted information to update labor market beliefs, and help them credibly signal skills through certifications have demonstrated potential. Job training and search policies are most effective when paired with broader demand-side strategies that foster job creation by increasing firm productivity and promoting economic growth.  Read more >
Unpacking the "Missing Middle": How Informality Shapes Employment in Sub-Saharan Africa Kaleb Abreha (Poverty and Inequality), Xavier Cirera (Trade, Investment, and Competitiveness Global Department), Elwyn Davies (Trade, Investment, and Competitiveness), Roberto N. Fattal-Jaef (Development Research Group), and Hibert Maemir (Development Economics Indicators)
© Dominic Chavez / World Bank	In Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, and Rwanda, the manufacturing sector is dominated by small informal firms and characterized by a scarcity of medium-sized formal firms (a phenomenon known as the ‘missing middle’). This structure leads to lower aggregate productivity and fewer opportunities for formal job creation. This study finds that the missing middle does not occur as a result of the size of firms that enter the market, but rather because of the inability of incumbent informal firms to grow. Policies that reduce the costs of formalization and strengthen enforcement are key but not sufficient. They need to go hand in hand with measures that reduce existing entry barriers and distortions that prevent firms from growing.  Read more >
Temporary Shocks with Long Lasting Impacts: Evidence from the Workforce in Brazil Ana Margarida Fernandes (Development Research Group), Joana Silva (Human Development Chief Economist Office)
© K Lynch / World Bank	Nearly a decade after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis hit Brazil, employment levels in the country had not fully recovered, and wages remained persistently lower. Firms facing severe foreign demand shocks due to that crisis responded by not renewing fixed-term contracts and reducing working hours and wages for incumbent workers. Low-skilled workers were disproportionately affected, deepening long-term inequality. While assistance programs such as unemployment insurance and cash transfers as well as the prevalence of informality in local labor markets provide some buffer, they could not fully mitigate these effects. This study highlights the enduring impacts of transitory shocks on labor markets, showing how firm scarring drives worker scarring, and underscores the need for more robust income support and strategies to address both firm and job scarring.  Read more >
Shifting Employment Patterns in Vietnam’s 62 Poorest Districts Hai-Anh H. Dang (Development Data Group), Klaus Deininger (Development Research Group), and Cuong Viet Nguyen
© Tran Thi Hoa / World Bank	In Vietnam’s poorest and most remote areas, where agricultural productivity is limited, increasing nonfarm self-employment and wage job opportunities is critical for income growth. The 30A Program, a multifaceted poverty alleviation initiative targeting Vietnam’s 62 poorest districts, shifted rural employment patterns by improving access to microcredit and formal loans, enabling transitions from farm to nonfarm self-employment. Marginal improvements in rural infrastructure—a component of the 30A program—may have supported this shift by better connecting rural areas to local markets. While the program did not achieve its intended impacts on income and poverty levels, this study underscores the importance of identifying and addressing rural constraints—such as credit access and infrastructure—through targeted, context-specific interventions.  Read more >

🔂Did You Miss It? Replay:

• Policy Research Talk (28/01): “Purchasing Prosperity: The Economics of Government Procurement” by Manuel Garcia-Santana

📰News and Conferences:

• May 5-6, 2025: 1st Annual International Seminar on Trade | Joint with the Journal of International Economics, CEPR, Banque de France, and Sussex University | Washington, DC
• May 5-8, 2025: World Bank Land Conference 2025: Securing Land Tenure and Access for Climate Action | Washington, DC
• June 11-12, 2025: 9th Urbanization and Development Conference  | Jointly organized by the World Bank, George Washington University, the International Growth Centre, and the City of Cape Town | Preregister by March 14 | Cape Town, South Africa.
• July 9-11, 2025:  Eleventh Conference of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality | Washington, DC

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When women participate in the workforce, they create jobs, drive innovation, and strengthen economies. Yet, across the world, women continue to face barriers that limit their employment and economic potential.

With International Women’s Day serving as a reminder of the progress made —and the challenges that remain— in advancing gender equality and women's economic empowerment, this edition of Research Insights highlights new evidence on how to expand women’s access to economic opportunities.  

In Uganda, a skills-based training program helped women strengthen their businesses and build financial resilience. In Djibouti, a public works program successfully brought more women into the workforce, though sustaining these gains remains a challenge. Macroeconomic research shows why such efforts are so important—an analysis of economies in the Middle East and North Africa shows closing gender employment gaps could boost GDP per capita by 50%. Good policies require good data, and this month we also highlight research that shows how refining approaches to measuring employment can help uncover hidden female labor force participation.  

This work is part of the body of research underpinning the World Bank’s new Center for Research on Women and Jobs, a research initiative led by our team in collaboration with the Bank's regional Gender Innovation Labs and other key partners to coordinate policy research efforts on women and jobs. 

Women in Uganda Strengthen Their Economic Inclusion Through Skills Training Megan Lang (Development Research Group), Julia Seither
© World Bank	A randomized evaluation of a skills-based program in rural Uganda finds that women who participated were 17% more likely to generate income from their own businesses 18 months later. The program, which didn’t involve any capital or cash support, covered modules on business planning, record-keeping, and soft skills like perseverance and confidence. Trained women reinvested heavily in their enterprises and demonstrated greater financial resilience, maintaining stable revenues during the COVID-19 lockdown while others faced losses. These findings underscore the effectiveness of skills-based programs as an effective strategy for enhancing women’s economic participation and ability to withstand financial shocks. Read more >
Short-Term Gains, Long-Term Challenges: Women’s Employment in Urban Djibouti Florencia Devoto, Emanuela Galasso (Development Research Group), Kathleen Beegle (Development Research Group), Stefanie Brodmann (Social Protection and Labor Department)
© Dominic Chavez / World Bank	In urban Djibouti, a public works program designed to facilitate women’s access to employment led to a 77% take-up rate among eligible women. The program’s design—featuring job proximity, relatively high wages compared to self-employment opportunities, and flexible work arrangements—contributed to its success, as it accommodated women with household responsibilities. However, after the program ended, most participants did not transition to other jobs, and few actively searched for work. This underscores the need for policies that extend beyond short-term employment by expanding access to sustained job opportunities, addressing structural labor market constraints, and creating an enabling environment for women’s workforce participation. Read more >
Better Data, Better Policies: Measuring Women’s and Youth Employment More Accurately Ivette Contreras (Development Data Group), Lelys Dinarte-Diaz (Development Research Group), Amparo Palacios-Lopez (Development Data Group), Valentina Costa (Development Data Group), Steffanny Romero (Development Data Group)
© World Bank	Standard household surveys often underestimate employment, particularly for women and youth in informal work. A survey experiment in El Salvador found that including a module with a list of activities increased reported employment for women by 8.1 percentage points. The list of examples enabled women to better identify informal activities, like preparing food or helping in a family-owned business, as work. In low- and middle-income countries, where informal work is nt and employment gaps between women and men are significant, refining labor data collection is essential to designing and targeting interventions that help women and youth access better job opportunities. Read more >
Closing Gender Employment Gaps: A Path to Economic Growth in MENA Federico Fiuratti, Steven Pennings (Development Research Group), and Jesica Torres (Middle East and North Africa Region)
© Arne Hoel / World Bank	The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is one of the regions with the largest gender employment gaps. Growth model simulations suggest that closing these gaps could significantly boost GDP per capita, with long-term gains averaging 50% across the region. However, these gains vary widely at the country level, from less than 10% in Qatar to over 80% in Yemen. In the medium term, gains are expected to be smaller due to slow physical capital adjustment, though they are still quantitatively significant. This study underscores the importance of reforms to facilitate female employment to accelerate economic growth in MENA, particularly in countries with the largest gender gaps. Read more >

📰 News:

• Sandra Rozo, Senior Economist at the Poverty, Inequality, and Human Development team at DECRG, received the 2024 Juan Luis Londoño de la Cuesta Award for her impactful research on forced migration in Colombia and the broader region. Her work has significantly advanced the understanding of migration’s social, economic, and political effects, influencing public policy design and implementation. For an overview of her research on this topic, read Sandra’s recently published VoxDevLit on Refugees and Other Forcibly Displaced Populations. 
• Co-edited by Cesaire Meh (IFC), and Sergio Schmukler (DECRG), the new report ‘Financing Firm Growth’ analyzes how capital market financing are powering investment and employment growth in low- and middle-income countries. Access the report, explore the Capital Markets interactive platform, or replay the launch event.  

Events and Conferences:

• March 27, 2025: Capital Markets: Financing Firm Growth | IFC HQ Auditorium | 11:00AM – 12:15PM ET | Watch via YouTube
• May 5-6, 2025: 1st Annual International Seminar on Trade | Joint with the Journal of International Economics, CEPR, Banque de France, and Sussex University | Washington, DC
• May 5-8, 2025: World Bank Land Conference 2025: Securing Land Tenure and Access for Climate Action | Washington, DC
• June 11-12, 2025: 9th Urbanization and Development Conference  | Jointly organized by the World Bank, George Washington University, the International Growth Centre, and the City of Cape Town | Preregister by March 21 | Cape Town, South Africa.
• July 9-11, 2025:  Eleventh Conference of the Society for the Study of Economic Inequality | Washington, DC

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Development doesn’t happen by chance—it happens where the right foundations exist. When countries invest in strong physical and digital infrastructure and put sound regulations in place, they create the conditions for inclusive job markets and productive private sectors.

This edition of Research Insights highlights four sets of findings on how the right infrastructure investments—paired with effective enabling policies—can support these goals. A global review underscores how digital wage payments, when supported by mobile access, strong ICT infrastructure, and sound regulation, can expand financial access to low-income workers while reducing costs for both workers and firms. In Jordan, improved urban transit could raise productivity and connect underserved neighborhoods to economic opportunity. In Brazil, combining electricity and highways has a far greater impact on economic output and industrial activity than investing in either alone. And in China, the expansion of high-speed rail is enabling firms to increase the share of local value in exports and build deeper domestic supply chains.

Together, these studies highlight how smart infrastructure choices can connect workers to opportunity and accelerate private sector growth.

Enabling Digital Wage Payments: Why (and What) Infrastructure Matters for Inclusive Finance Leora Klapper (Development Research Group)
© Kelley Lynch / World Bank	Digitalizing wage payments can increase account ownership among workers, help them save, and avoid unnecessary fees or commute costs from going to the bank—all while helping firms reduce costs and operate more efficiently. Employers are increasing paying workers into mobile-enabled accounts, such as mobile money accounts and mobile wallets, which are often more convenient and affordable than traditional bank accounts for low-income workers. But these benefits only materialize when the right infrastructure is in place. This review highlights the foundational role of equitable access to mobile phones, strong information and communications technology infrastructure, interoperable payment systems, and financial regulation in enabling the safe and widespread use of digital payments. To unlock these gains, countries must invest in the enabling environment that makes digital wage payments possible—and equitable. Read more >
How Better Transit Could Boost Amman’s Productivity Tatjana Kleineberg (Development Research Group), Sally Murray (Infrastructure, Urban Global Department), Yulu Tang, Jon Kher Kaw (Infrastructure, Urban Global Department)
© Kelley Lynch / World Bank	Amman’s recent bus rapid transit (BRT) investments are expected to reduce commuting times by up to 26 percent in targeted areas of the city, and raise sectoral output by 4–8 percent, according to simulations using detailed data on employment, housing, and transit networks. By connecting peripheral areas to the city center, the BRT system would also boost welfare—especially for manufacturing workers, who face the longest commutes. These findings underscore how urban transit investments can foster more inclusive growth by improving job access, reducing spatial inequalities, and enhancing productivity. The study’s findings can also help city planners anticipate necessary complementary policies like spatial targeting of new services and changes to land use planning to accommodate city-wide shifts in employment, population, and density. Read more >
Infrastructure works better together: What 40 years of data from Brazil tells us Harris Selod (Development Research Group), Jevgenijs Steinbuks (Office of Infrastructure Chief Economist), Ian Trotter, Brian Blankespoor (Development Data Group)
© Mariana Ceratti / World Bank	New evidence from Brazil shows that the economic impact of infrastructure investments depends on how they are combined. Drawing on four decades of data, researchers find that neither highways nor electricity alone consistently boosted local output. But when small and medium-sized municipalities gained access to electricity in areas already connected by highways, local output per capita rose by at least 29 percent—and industrial activity expanded significantly. These results underscore the importance of infrastructure complementarities: it’s not just about building more but building strategically. To promote long-term economic growth, policymakers should design infrastructure investments as coordinated packages rather than isolated projects. Read more >
How High-Speed Railways Sparked Supplier Connections in China Hiau Looi Kee (Development Research Group), Enze Xie (Development Research Group), Mingzhi Xu
© Jiaye Liu / Shutterstock	China’s high-speed rail (HSR) expansion has not only transformed mobility but also deepened domestic economic linkages. This study finds that improved HSR connectivity between cities enables exporting firms to access a wider variety of domestic suppliers, substitute imported materials with lower-cost local inputs, and increase the share of domestic value in their exports. The effect is particularly strong for firms with foreign capital, processing exporters, and the electronics industry. As a case of infrastructure enhancing firm-to-firm networks, the findings highlight how investments in transport systems can play a pivotal role in strengthening supply chains and advancing economic upgrading.Read more >

🔎 Looking for more resources? Check out our latest Research Newsletter ‘Paving the Path to Progress: Infrastructure’s Potential to Accelerate Development’ and dive into the latest research, data, and tools from the Development Research Group on infrastructure.

📰News and Call for Papers:

• Carolyn Fisher, Research Manager of DECRG’s Sustainability and Infrastructure Program was honored with the 2025 Marcel Boiteux Lecture at CentraleSupélec as the first female economist in the Repec Environmental ranking, top 3 among women in Energy. This prestigious event aims to celebrate outstanding achievements in the field of energy economics and pays tribute to Marcel Boiteux and whose pioneering work laid the foundations for the economics of the electricity sector, and for research into carbon taxes. 
• Submit your paper for the 7th World Bank/ODI Global/IFS Public Finance Conference by May 15. The organizers invite submissions across all areas of public finance, including tax policy and administration, subsidies and compensation/wage bill reforms, political economy of fiscal reforms, public financial management, public goods provision, and procurement, cash transfers, social protection and other poverty alleviation, and inequality reduction programs. 

📅 Event and Conferences (ET time unless otherwise specified): 

• April 7: Did you miss Dario’s Tortarolo Policy Research Talk on ‘Domestic Revenue Mobilization at a Crossroads: Tax Policy Meets Data Analytics’? Access the recording and event materials here. 
• April 29: Measuring Development 2025: Biodiversity on Land and at Sea | World Bank HQ & Online | 8:30 am – 5:00 pm
• April 30: Bridge the Gap: Revenue Mobilization in Emerging Market and Developing Economies | World Bank HQ | 8:50 am – 5:00 pm
• May 1: AI for Social Good Seminar organized by the AI & Digital Development Research Initiative | World Bank HQ MC2-800 & Online | 1:30 pm – 3:00

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Entrepreneurial activity is a pillar of economic growth. Successful businesses power local economies, generate jobs, and offer a pathway out of poverty. However, turning a small unproductive firm into a resilient, growing business is rarely straightforward. This edition of Research Insights collects evidence from four studies that examine how different forms of support—training, information, and business networks—can shape outcomes for micro and small firms.

In West Africa, business associations play an important role as service providers for informal firms, but tend to serve more established, male-owned enterprises. In Brazil, a benchmarking tool boosted demand for advisory services, but did not translate into long-term improvements in firm practices or performance. In Mexico and Guatemala, Zoom-based training improved business practices and raised sales by 24%, but sustaining these gains proved challenging. Finally, in Togo, a psychology-based training delivered long-term gains with higher profits seven years after the intervention, but these results were largely driven by men, highlighting the need for complementary support to address gender-specific barriers.

Together, these findings underscore that many types of support can boost micro and small firms, but more attention is needed in designing tailored, long-term interventions, especially for underserved groups.

Lasting Gains, But Not for All: Long-Term Effects of Entrepreneur Training in Togo Francisco Campos (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation), Michael Frese, Leonardo Iavocone (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation), Hillary C. Johnson (East Asia and Pacific Gender Innovation Lab), David McKenzie (Development Research Group), Mona Mensmann
© Vincent Tremeau / World Bank	Seven years after receiving psychology-based training designed to build a proactive entrepreneurial mindset, small business owners in Togo reported lasting gains. On average, entrepreneurs earned $91 more in monthly profits, up from $64 after two years. However, these gains were largely driven by men, who also reported higher levels of self-efficacy and capital accumulation. For women, profit gains in year seven were much more modest: in average, only one-quarter of those for men. This gap may reflect gender-specific constraints such as limited access to capital or sectoral barriers. The study shows that high-quality training incorporating psychological tools can deliver long-term benefits—and highlights the need for complementary support to help ensure women entrepreneurs benefit equally. Read more >
How Organized Is the Informal Sector? The Role of Business Associations in Microenterprises in West Africa Clément Joubert (Development Research Group), Kathleen Beegle (Development Research Group)
© Peter Kapuscinski / World Bank	There is limited evidence on how, and if, business associations support informal microenterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from seven countries, this study finds that fewer than 10% of microenterprise owners are members—with wide variation across countries and industries. Members tend to be male, older, and own larger firms, suggesting associations often serve incumbents over new entrants. Most offer private, industry-specific services rather than collective advocacy, and membership is linked to better outcomes in productivity, profits, and credit access—especially among traders. Future research will need to establish whether these gains are causal and whether they come at the expense of smaller and younger businesses who are not members. Lastly, findings highlight that associations might be useful partners to deliver social protection or productivity-boosting interventions in industries with higher membership rates. Read more >
Can better information nudge small firms to seek business advice? Miriam Bruhn (Development Research Group), Caio Piza (Development Impact)
© Mariana Kaipper / World Bank	In Brazil, researchers tested whether a one-page benchmarking sheet—summarizing how a firm’s practices compared to peers and suggesting five simple improvements—would increase take-up of advisory services. Firms that received the sheet were 7 percentage points more likely to seek services from SEBRAE, a public business support agency, in the following months. But the effect faded over time, with no lasting impact on practices or performance. Many firms cited lack of time as a key barrier. The findings suggest that while information matters, reducing time costs and improving access to flexible support may be essential for sustainable improvements in firm capabilities. Read more >
Can Zoom Training Boost Microenterprise Growth? Evidence from Mexico and Guatemala  Elwyn Davies (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation), Leonardo Iavocone (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation), David McKenzie (Development Research Group), Peter Deffebach
© Arne Hoel / Shutterstock	Digital technologies offer the potential to both lower the costs of delivering business training, and to enable scale up across wider areas. In Mexico and Guatemala, a nine-session online course improved business practices and raised sales by 24% within two months. But six months later, gains faded as many firms abandoned the new practices, and the control group caught up. Despite modest cost savings over in-person training (US$ 50 compared to US$ 62), the study shows that digital delivery is scalable but not a silver bullet. Long-lasting impact requires online programs to have more actionable content, stronger peer learning, and strategies to help entrepreneurs sustain behavior change. Read more >

📰News and Calls for Papers:

• Trade Expanded as Import Restrictions Loomed: The latest edition of Trade Watch shows a rise in global goods trade from October 2024 through February 2025, fueled by expectations of higher import restrictions. Trade in services also saw further expansion during the October to December 2024 period, with international tourist arrivals recovering to exceed pre-pandemic levels.
• Submit your paper for the Women and Jobs in Latin America and The Caribbean Policy Research Workshop in Bogota, Colombia on October 6-7. Submissions deadline: June 15, 2025
• Submit your paper for the Women and Jobs in Africa Policy Research Workshop in Accra, Ghana, on November 11-12. Submissions deadline: June 30, 2025

📅 Recent & Upcoming Events and Conferences (ET time):

• May 1: Watch the recording of the seminar AI for Social Impact: Deployed Resource Optimization and Future Acceleration with Foundation Models
• May 5-6: Watch recordings and download presentations from the International Seminar on Trade (ISoT) Inaugural Edition
• May 21: Financing Firm Growth: The Role of Capital Markets in Low- and Middle-Income Countries | Washington DC & Online |12:30 pm
• June 4: Strengthening African Wildlife and Fisheries Conservation: How Private Management, Regional Cooperation, and Artisanal Priority Improve Outcomes | Washington DC & Online | 1:00 pm

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Without sufficient capital, even the most promising businesses struggle to grow, hire, or innovate. This edition of Research Insights brings together four recent studies that shed light on how targeted interventions can help close this financial gap for small and medium enterprises (SME) and entrepreneurs.

At the center is a meta-analysis of 24 rigorous studies conducted across the globe, which finds that formal loans significantly boost job creation, sales, and profits across SMEs. Loans disbursed by public banks show stronger effects for job creation.

Complementing this global perspective are three studies that examine how specific programs, and alternative strategies address financial constraints for entrepreneurs in Ecuador, Tunisia, and Bangladesh. In Ecuador, a World Bank-supported loan program helped businesses grow, particularly those with no prior access to credit. In Tunisia, a bundled incentive program for high-tech startups improved firm survival and employment. And in Bangladesh, temporary migration has emerged as a high-risk, high-return strategy for overcoming capital barriers and enabling returnees to launch non-agricultural businesses.

Together, these studies offer strong evidence of the growth- and job-enhancing benefits of programs that help firms overcome financial constraints. At the same time, they point to continued challenges in program design and the development of the financial sector, which limit the ability of underserved groups to benefit from formal financial services.

Do Loans Really Help SMEs Grow? Evidence from 24 Studies Worldwide Miriam Bruhn (Development Research Group), Johan Andrey Ortega Hernandez (Development Research Group), Claudia Ruiz Ortega (Development Research Group)
© John Hogg / World Bank	A new meta-analysis of 24 rigorous studies across the globe finds that formal loans increase small and medium enterprises’ (SMEs) employment by 12%, sales by 18.3%, and profits by 17.6%. Gains in employment are broadly consistent across firm sizes, country income levels, and guarantee structures. However, the impact of loans is larger when disbursed by public rather than private banks, suggesting that despite potential inefficiencies or risks of political capture, public banks may reach more credit-constrained firms. Private banks, on the other hand, may focus on safer, more established clients. The findings highlight the value of formal lending as a tool to support SME growth—and underscore the need for carefully designed policies to align private banks’ incentives and maximize impact. Read more>
Expanding Credit, Fueling Growth: Targeted Lending Supports MSMEs in Ecuador Miriam Bruhn (Development Research Group), Federico Diaz Kalan (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation), Nicolò Fraccaroli (Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation), Claudia Ruiz Ortega (Development Research Group)
© Jessica Belmont / World Bank	A World Bank–supported loan program in Ecuador—delivered through local financial institutions—successfully expanded access to credit for MSMEs between 2021 and 2024. An evaluation of participating formal firms shows that program loans boosted employment by nearly 9%, short-term assets by 17%, and sales by 21%. These results were similar for firms led by both women and men. The largest benefits went to businesses with no prior credit, which nearly doubled their sales. By contrast, firms with prior access to credit primarily substituted existing loans, without expanding operations. The findings highlight the importance of expanding financial access to underserved firms and of designing adequate targeting mechanisms when working with private lenders. Read more >
Boosting Innovation, Creating Jobs: Tunisia’s Startup Act Shows Promising Early Results Nadia Ali (Columbia University), Massimiliano Cali (World Bank Economic Policy Global Department), Bob Rijkers (Development Research Group)
© Arne Hoel / World Bank	Tunisia’s Startup Act offers a bundle of benefits to high-tech startups through a competitive selection process. Incentives include coverage of social security contributions, easier access to foreign exchange, and streamlined customs procedures, among others. An evaluation comparing selected firms to similarly placed applicants between 2018-2021 finds that firms that received the benefits were 18 percentage points more likely to survive over three years and hired an average of two additional workers, more than doubling the average size of beneficiary firms. Profits remained unchanged, consistent with early-stage startups prioritizing growth over short-term returns. A preliminary cost-benefit analysis suggests the program is cost-effective, generating over 2.5 Tunisian Dinars in benefits per dinar spent. The findings highlight how targeted policies can support startup survival and employment growth. Read more>
Overcoming Credit Constraints to Unlock Entrepreneurship in Bangladesh  Laurent Bossavie (Social Protection and Jobs Global Department), Joseph-Simon Görlach (Bocconi University), Çağlar Özden (Development Research Group), He Wang (Development Research Group)
© Jessica Belmont / World Bank	For aspiring entrepreneurs in Bangladesh, temporary international migration is often the only viable way to accumulate startup capital. Using a novel dataset tracking the full migration and employment histories of 5,000 returnees, this study shows how temporary overseas work enables many to start businesses upon return. Over half of return migrants become self-employed in non-agricultural sectors—compared to just 20% of non-migrants—using savings from abroad as their primary source of startup capital. Migration acts as a high-risk, high-return investment, with most workers earning far more than the costs of migrating. The study shows how, in the absence of well-developed local capital markets, temporary migration can be a second-best solution for credit-constrained households. Read more >

📰News and Calls for Papers:

• The Leadership Program Reshaping Cambodia: Over 1,000 senior Cambodian officials have completed the Leadership and Innovation Program, transforming how reforms are led across government. Rooted in Building State Capability by Matt Andrews, Lant Pritchett, and Michael Woolcock, the program equips leaders with practical tools like adaptive leadership, communication, conflict management, Problem-Driven Iterative Adaptation (PDIA), and cross-sector collaboration. Designed locally with World Bank support, now the program is expanding beyond senior officials. The next phase will include school principals and health facility directors, broadening its impact on education and healthcare delivery. Read more> 
• Submit your abstracts for Industrial Policy for Africa Conference in Nairobi, Kenya, on February 16-18,2026. The submission deadline is July 30, 2025
• Submit your paper for the Women and Jobs in Africa Policy Research Workshop in Accra, Ghana, on November 11-12. The submission deadline is June 30, 2025.

🔁 Did You Miss It? Hit Replay!

• June 11-12: 9th Urbanization and Development Conference: Urban Economics in Action.

• June 4: Strengthening African Wildlife and Fisheries Conservation: How Private Management, Regional Cooperation, and Artisanal Priority Improve Outcomes (June 4, 2025)

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Urbanization is central to Africa’s development. As cities grow rapidly, the ability of people to access jobs, services, and markets will determine whether urbanization becomes a driver of inclusive growth or a source of deepening inequality. 

This edition of Research Insights explores how spatial dynamics shape economic opportunity in cities, and how new tools and evidence can help policymakers respond. A dramatic example comes from Cape Town, where a serious decline in the commuter rail system in the 2010s pushed residents toward more expensive transport options and may have adversely impacted access to jobs. In contrast, positive examples from Kampala and Nairobi show that programs that supported microentrepreneurs and workers in exploring new locations or neighborhoods boosted profits and access to jobs, respectively. 

New spatial models can serve as tools to help cities design, plan, and evaluate urban investments more effectively. This type of tool has been used to simulate how a bus rapid transit expansion can reshape the dynamics of Cape Town, capturing how residents and firms relocate, developers respond, and wages and land prices adjust. An adaptation of the model incorporated flood risk management for urban resilience. 

The content featured in this edition was presented at the 9th Urbanization and Development conference, which took place June 11-12 in the City of Cape Town and brought together researchers and policymakers to explore how African cities can grow more equitably and efficiently. Many more studies, tools, and policy insights can be found on the conference website.

Transport Shocks and Urban Lives: Evidence from Cape Town’s Rail Decline Andrew Kerr (University of Cape Town), Alejandro Molnar (Development Research Group)
© Shutterstock	In the 2010s, Cape Town’s commuter rail system suffered a dramatic collapse due to theft and vandalism—cutting the number of operating trains by more than half. This study uses household surveys and detailed transport performance data to trace the consequences of this decline. As service deteriorated, commuters shifted to more expensive modes like minibus taxis and private cars, while overall travel declined. Households near train stations saw the sharpest drop in rail use and an increase in the cost of access to employment.  Note this paper is forthcoming as “Rail service quality, cost of living and employment.
When Location Matters: Supporting Microentrepreneurs in Uganda Carolyn Pelnik (Tufts University; Joining the Development Research Group Fall 2025)
© Arne Hoel / World Bank	Microentrepreneurs may earn vastly different profits depending on where they operate—even when they offer similar products. In Kampala, Uganda, this study finds that mobile entrepreneurs like street vendors and motorcycle taxi drivers can increase profits by 45% simply by relocating to more profitable areas. But they only make profitable moves when provided both a small moving subsidy and information about higher-earning locations. The subsidy helps insure against the risks of moving, while information helps identify better opportunities. These findings highlight how financial and informational frictions jointly constrain firm mobility and earnings, and how addressing both can unlock significant income gains for microentrepreneurs in urban labor markets. Read more>
Familiarity Shapes Opportunity: How Urban Residents Navigate Their Cities Joshua T. Dean (University of Chicago), Gabriel Kreindler (Harvard University), Oluchi Mbonu (Harvard University; Joining the Development Research Group Fall 2025)
© Sambrian Mbaabu / World Bank	In many growing cities, unfamiliarity with nearby neighborhoods can significantly limit access to job opportunities. In Nairobi, a field experiment showed that casual workers are willing to forgo 22% of a day’s wage or travel significantly farther to avoid working in neighborhoods they’ve never visited. Yet a single visit to a new area eliminates this “familiarity premium.” Participants update their perceptions of safety and job prospects, and there is suggestive evidence that they later return to these neighborhoods to search for work. The findings suggest that simple, low-cost exposure to new areas might expand effective access to urban labor markets and help cities deliver on their promise of opportunity. Read more>
Modeling for Better Infrastructure Provision
© Shutterstock	A new generation of spatial models is helping cities assess how infrastructure investments reshape urban economies, capturing how residents and firms relocate, developers respond, and wages and land prices adjust. In Cape Town, the IGC’s Cities Spatial Model was used to simulate the long-run effects of the MyCiTi BRT expansion. It found that improved accessibility could boost productivity, shift employment toward the new corridor, and raise property values. An extension of the model (NEDUM-2D for Spatial Planning) was used to assess the impacts of multiple types of floods, showing that better information could reduce damages, which are concentrated in formal housing areas where investment is highest. These models have been applied to inform decisions on transit, zoning, informality, and climate resilience in cities like Bogotá, Mexico City, Amman, Kampala, and Mumbai, among others. Watch the session >

📰News and Calls for Papers:

• The new Global Findex Report is out! Download the report, access the data, and watch the launch video to hear from global leaders how mobile phones and digitally enabled financial accounts are connecting 3 billion adults to the digital economy. 
• Welcome to the team: Carolyn Pelnik and Oluchi Mbonu, whose work is featured in this edition, will be joining the Development Research Group in the Fall of 2025. Carolyn’s research interests are in development economics, with a particular focus on firms, especially small and micro enterprises, and issues of urban development in low-income countries. Oluchi’s research interests lie at the intersection of development and urban economics, with a focus on how mobility and public transportation systems in developing countries impact economic outcomes. They’ll be joining the Sustainability and Infrastructure team alongside Abdoulaye Cisse, who recently started with the group. Abdoulaye’s research uses high-frequency micro-data and empirical methods grounded in economic theory to study topics in energy, agriculture, and infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Submit your abstracts for Industrial Policy for Africa Conference in Nairobi, Kenya, on February 16-18,2026. The submission deadline is July 30, 2025.

🔁 Policy Research Talk Roundup

Replay the recordings and access the accompanying materials from our Policy Research Talks from the last year: 

• Designing Better Green Finance: Insights for the Next Generation of Sustainable Investments
• Purchasing Prosperity: The Economics of Government Procurement
• Domestic Revenue Mobilization at a Crossroads: Tax Policy Meets Data Analytics
• Financing Firm Growth: The Role of Capital Markets in Low- and Middle-income countries
• Strengthening African Wildlife and Fisheries Conservation: How Private Management, Regional Cooperation, and Artisanal Priority Improves Outcomes

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Across the world, women face persistent barriers to entering and thriving in the labor market. This edition of Research Insights highlights new evidence on policies and programs that can expand women’s labor force participation and boost earnings. 

Country-level evidence points to promising approaches. In Haiti, Kenya, and Rwanda, a study of public works programs shows that explicitly designating opportunities for women (gender-tagging) significantly increased their participation compared to standard programs. In Nigeria, unconditional cash transfers to women in ultra-poor households spurred new business creation, improved food security, and benefitted the community. In Morocco, minimum wage hikes narrowed the gender pay gap in manufacturing through higher wage gains for women, but also pushed some women into informal jobs, pointing to the importance of complementary measures.

Looking across countries, global evidence from 190 economies shows that childcare laws—especially those ensuring affordability—raise women’s labor force participation, particularly for mothers of young children. 

Another key tool to enhance women’s earnings is financial inclusion. The Global Findex 2025: Connectivity and Financial Inclusion in the Digital Economy shows that the gender gap in account ownership has halved since 2011, empowering more women to control their own earnings and household finances. Yet gaps remain: in South Asia, women are 15 percentage points less likely than men to use digital payments, and more than 300 million women still lack a mobile phone—limiting their access to the very services that can help them build resilience and independence.

Together, these findings underscore how policies that reduce legal and economic barriers can boost women’s participation in labor markets, but lasting gains often require complementary measures that address both the unintended consequences of reform and entrenched social norms that can limit progress. 

Bonus: If you’d like to know more about the Global Findex, check out our upcoming Policy Research Talk on September 30! 

Gender Tagging Public Works: A Scalable Strategy to Boost Women’s Labor Participation Tanay Balantrapu (Development Impact, DIME), Paul Christian (Development Impact, DIME), Lelys Dinarte-Diaz (Development Research Group), Felipe Dunsch (World Food Program), Jonas Heirman (World Food Program), Dahyeon Jeong (Development Impact), Erin Kelley (University of Chicago), Florence Kondylis (Development Research Group), Gregory Lane (University of Chicago), John Loeser (Development Impact, DIME)
© A. Melody Lee/ World Bank	Public works programs are a key tool for employment in low-income countries, yet women remain underrepresented. In Haiti, Kenya, and Rwanda, gender-tagged public works — programs that explicitly designate opportunities for women — increased women’s participation by 11 to 27 percentage points among dual-headed households, compared to programs without this feature. Gender tagging also offset negative impacts on women’s autonomy observed in standard programs such as men’s increased control over household resources, with these positive effects persisting beyond program implementation. While these findings suggest that gender tagging can effectively increase women’s labor market participation, ongoing research by the authors is also examining potential unintended consequences, including shifts in household dynamics and possible backlash as women gain autonomy. Pairing gender-tagged programs with complementary support systems may help women navigate these challenges. Read more>
How Childcare Laws Support Women’s Employment? Evidence from 190 Countries S Anukriti (Development Research Group), Lelys Dinarte-Diaz (Development Research Group), Maria Montoya-Aguirre (Paris School of Economics), Alena Sakhonchik (Women, Business and the Law)
© Choor-Sokunthea / World Bank	The unequal division of caregiving responsibilities, especially childcare, limits women’s participation in the paid economy. Access to childcare services can help shift this balance. Using data from 190 countries from Women, Business, and the Law, this study examines how laws regulating the availability, affordability, and quality of childcare affect female labor force participation (FLFP). The authors find that enacting childcare laws increases FLFP by up to 2.2 percent, with stronger effects among mothers of young children. Affordability has the largest impact, followed by availability and quality. Importantly, women entering the labor force due to these laws are able to find employment. These findings underscore the role of legal frameworks in expanding access to childcare and unlocking women’s economic potential, especially where social norms and cost barriers persist. Read more>
Cash is Queen: Empowering Women through Cash Transfers in Nigeria Sreelakshmi Papineni (Africa Gender Innovation Lab), Paula Gonzalez (Northwestern University), Markus Goldstein (Center for Global Development), Jed Friedman (Development Research Group)
© Shutterstock	In rural Nigeria, an unconditional cash transfer program targeting women in ultra-poor households led to a 12 percentage point increase in microenterprise formation among recipients, growing to 20 points one year after the program ended. The program also boosted local demand, enabling non-recipient women to increase business ownership by 13 percentage points. Additionally, the intervention improved food security for all households, while shifting household decision-making towards greater joint control and enhancing women’s economic empowerment. Notably, the program generated $0.32 in earnings from new female-headed businesses for every dollar transferred. These findings highlight how cash transfers to women in ultra-poor households can serve as a scalable tool for poverty reduction and women’s economic inclusion, with positive spillovers benefiting entire communities. Read more>
Minimum Wage Increases in Morocco: Gains and Losses for Women in Manufacturing Louise Paul-Delvaux (Development Research Group)
© Shutterstock	Between 2009 and 2015, Morocco increased its minimum wage by 24% in real terms. Over the same period, the gender wage gap in the formal manufacturing sector narrowed from 28% to 22%. Most of this reduction came from larger wage gains for women, both at and just above the minimum wage, as firms raised wages for workers just above the new threshold. Women who stayed in formal jobs often moved to bigger, better-paying employers. However, low-wage women were also more likely to lose formal jobs—often due to firm closures—and shift into informal work, which typically offers lower pay and less job security. Overall, the minimum wage policy reduced the gender pay gap in manufacturing, but the uneven effects highlight the need for complementary measures to support displaced workers, particularly in settings with limited formal job opportunities. Read more>

📰News:

• Trade Expanded Despite Policy Uncertainty: The latest edition of Trade Watch shows that global goods trade expanded in the first half of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024 despite higher trade-policy uncertainty. Trade in services, which is reported with a lag, expanded in the January-to-May period, and international tourist arrivals continued to exceed pre-pandemic levels in most regions. Stress in global supply chains remained high, but container-fleet expansion helped restrain shipping costs. Check out the brief and dashboard>
• The Venezuelan Refugee Panel Study (VenRePS) follows the same migrant households over time to understand how legal status shapes lives. Focused on Colombia’s Permiso Especial de Permanencia (PEP), the study tracked 2,232 Venezuelan households between 2020-21. The study shows how regularization impacts economic stability, social integration, political participation, and well-being, offering rare long-term evidence on displacement. Explore the website>

📅  Upcoming Events and Conferences (ET time):

• September 25-26: 7th World Bank / ODI Global / IFS Public Finance Conference | London, UK & Online
• September 29: AI & the Future of Human Capital in the Global South: A World Bank-George Washington University Knowledge Symposium | Washington DC | 8:30-5:30 pm
• September 30: The Global Findex 2025: Connectivity and Financial Inclusion in the Digital Economy | Washington DC & Online | 12:30 –2:00 pm 

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Agriculture underpins livelihoods and food security across the globe—but it lifts incomes only when farmers are able to raise productivity, scale operations, and connect to structured value chains. The recent Annual Meetings emphasized this imperative, underscoring the role of smart policy and targeted support in transforming agriculture.

This edition of Research Insights brings together new evidence on how to strengthen the foundations of agricultural growth and resilience. From agribusiness networks in global value chains to conflict-sensitive monitoring tools, and inclusive land institutions, the studies featured here explore how effective policy design and implementation can help farmers overcome constraints and unlock opportunities.

Research from Africa demonstrates how secure land rights—enabled by low-cost, transparent systems—can empower farmers and expand access to finance. In Sri Lanka, the unintended consequences of an abrupt fertilizer ban underscore the need for gradual, well-supported transitions in agriculture. New evidence from Ukraine shows how satellite imagery can serve as a scalable and objective method to assess agricultural damage in conflict zones, helping prioritize recovery efforts. Finally, global analysis of agribusiness networks reveals that firms with diverse and robust supply chains are better equipped to withstand shocks, offering lessons for strengthening agri-food networks. 

Building Resilient Agribusiness Networks for Global Shocks Anne Beck (Development Research Group), Sunghun Lim (Louisiana State University), and Daria Taglioni (Development Research Group)
© Shutterstock	From trade tensions and pandemics to climate shocks, global agricultural value chains have faced unprecedented disruptions in recent years, highlighting the need for resilient supply networks. Analyzing firm-to-firm connections among 17,500 agribusinesses worldwide, this study finds that companies with diverse and robust customer and supplier relationships are better able to withstand shocks and less likely to exit the industry. The findings point to a dual strategy: firms consolidate supply chains with trusted partners while diversifying across industries and geographies to manage risk. From a policy perspective, supporting the development of adaptable and well-connected networks can help stabilize agri-food supply chains, strengthen resilience, and safeguard food security. Read more>
Measuring the Hidden Costs of Conflict on Agriculture with Satellite Data Klaus Deininger (Development Research Group), Daniel Ayalew Ali (Development Research Group), Nataliia Kussul (Igor Sigorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute), Guido Lemoine (Joint Research Center of the European Commission), Andrii Shelestov (Igor Sigorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute), Leonid Shumilo (University of Maryland)
	Conflict can severely disrupt agricultural production, yet measuring its impact remains a challenge in data-scarce environments. This study leverages satellite imagery to measure the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on agricultural cultivation. The findings reveal that the damage to Ukrainian farmland is three times higher, and far more persistent and widespread, than previously estimated. By providing a scalable, timely, and objective method to monitor agricultural losses, this approach can guide post-conflict interventions. For example, data on conflict damage could inform de-mining efforts and help prioritize reconstruction actions in areas with the highest need, ultimately safeguarding food security and supporting resilience-building in fragile settings. Read more>
Empowering Farmers and Building Rural Resilience with Better Land Institutions Klaus Deininger (Development Research Group), Aparajita Goyal (Africa Chief Economist Office)
© Sambrian Mbaabu / World Bank	Across Africa, farmers face high risks from climate change, natural disasters, and limited access to credit and insurance. Weak land institutions worsen these challenges, discouraging investment and slowing productivity growth. This study shows that secure and transparent land rights can enhance rural resilience by allowing farmers to rent, transfer, or use land as collateral—helping them diversify income and invest in higher-value activities. In Rwanda, low-cost land registration using satellite imagery improved tenure security, increased investment (especially in soil conservation), and strengthened women’s land rights. Similar reforms in Ethiopia improved land rental markets, created opportunities for young farmers, and provide the basis for establishing a digital farmer registry. Scaling up such affordable, transparent, and gender-inclusive land systems is key to expanding rural finance and building a more climate-resilient agricultural sector. Read the article or explore the report>
Unintended Impacts of Sri Lanka’s Fertilizer Import Bans Devaki Ghose (Development Research Group), Eduardo Fraga (London Business School), Ana Fernandes (Development Research Group)
	Sri Lanka’s import of chemical fertilizers almost dropped completely after the country implemented a ban in 2021, aiming to transition to more organic methods of agriculture and reduce foreign exchange outflows. As a result, rice and tea yields fell sharply. The most affected firms saw a 35% drop in agricultural exports, and welfare losses were equivalent to a 4.35% average income reduction—with much larger losses for farmers and estate workers. Organic fertilizers were unable to fill the gap, and the ban’s goal of saving foreign exchange was undermined as export losses offset nearly half the savings from reduced imports. The findings highlight the need for gradual, well-supported transitions to sustainable farming and the importance of careful trade and subsidy policy design. Read more>

📰News and Calls for Papers:

• Submission Deadline: November 5, 2025. PhD candidates are invited to submit their job market paper to the Development Impact blog. Selected entries will appear as guest entries, offering a platform to showcase candidates’ work.
• Submission Deadline: November 16, 2025. Submit your paper for the Land and Property Research Conference, to be held in Washington, DC from April 29 to May 1,2026.
• Submission Deadline: January 11, 2026. Submit your paper for the second edition of the International Seminar on Trade (ISoT), which will take place in Geneva, Switzerland on May 21-22, 2026. 
• Tune into Episode 11 of the Accelerating Development: Ideas for Impact podcast: ‘Tracking Inclusion: How Mobile Tech is Shaping Financial Access’.

📅 Past and Upcoming Events:

• September 30, 2025: Did you miss the Policy Research Talk on the Global Findex? Now you can rewatch it here.
• October 17, 2025: What are the main challenges young people face when entering the labor market? Watch this replay of an Annual Meetings Instagram Live with Senior Economists Sandra Rozo and Hernan Winkler. 
• October 30, 2025: Connect at 9:00 am ET for the launch of El Director Libre (The Liberated Principal), a new book about how AI can free up time and strengthen school leadership in Latin America. The event will in be in Spanish. Register here.

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Resilience is not just desirable but essential for low- and middle-income countries that bear the brunt of a changing climate.

Our latest Policy Research Report “Rethinking Resilience” takes center stage in this edition, outlining a shift from reactive relief to proactive adaptation through the Five I’s: income, information, insurance, infrastructure, and interventions. This layered strategy offers countries a blueprint to anticipate shocks, reduce vulnerability, and lay the foundation for inclusive, sustainable growth.

Complementing this vision, new research provides compelling evidence on the urgent need to build resilience, as well as targeted reforms that illustrate aspects of the Five I’s approach. Data from 160,000 firms in 134 countries reveal how rising temperatures affect productivity and revenues—particularly for small and medium enterprises—and points to reforms that can help businesses adapt. In Africa, regenerative agriculture emerges as a “triple win” for productivity, resilience, and climate adaptation, highlighting the role for innovative finance and strong local institutions. Finally, high-resolution data from South Asia uncovers sharp disparities in exposure to heat and floods, underscoring the importance of granular information in guiding targeted policies and interventions to reach the most vulnerable households and firms.

💡 Research Highlights:

Rethinking Resilience: Adapting to a Changing Climate Forhad Shilpi (Development Research Group), Matthew E. Kahn (University of Southern California), Claudia Berg (World Development Report), and the Policy Research Report team
	Climate change has made resilience a development imperative, especially for low- and middle-income countries, which bear a disproportionate burden from disasters and take far longer to recover from their impacts. The main challenge is to move beyond approaches that focus on coping with the aftermath of disasters, and instead empower individuals, firms, and markets to anticipate, prepare for, and reduce the severity of shocks before they occur. Building resilience requires a layered strategy: rapid income growth to reduce vulnerability; reliable, accessible information to turn uncertainty into actionable risk; robust insurance and financial inclusion to spread losses and speed recovery; resilient infrastructure to protect livelihoods and connect markets; and targeted interventions to support the most vulnerable. By prioritizing these “Five I’s”, countries can move from reactive relief to proactive adaptation, laying the foundation for inclusive growth and long-term prosperity. Read more>
Business Under Heat: Evidence from 134 Nations on Climate Adaptation Claudia Berg (World Development Report), Luca Bettarelli (University of Palermo), Davide Furceri (International Monetary Fund), Michael Ganslmeier (University of Exeter), Arti Grover (International Finance Corporation), Megan Lang (Development Research Group), Marc Schiffbauer (Finance, Competitiveness and Investment)
	Rising temperatures are undermining firm performance across the globe, but the impact is most severe for small and medium-sized enterprises in low- and middle-income countries. Analyzing microdata from nearly 160,000 firms in 134 countries, this study finds that a 0.5°C increase in annual temperatures reduces revenues by 12%, mainly through lower labor productivity and wages. Vulnerability is highest among younger firms, those in heat-sensitive sectors, and those facing limited access to finance, burdensome regulations, or unsafe conditions. Targeted reforms—improving access to finance, streamlining regulations, strengthening public goods, and supporting innovation—can help firms “weather the storm” and build resilience for inclusive growth. Read more>
Can Regenerative Agriculture Deliver for Africa?   Andrew Dabalen (Africa Chief Economist Office), Aparajita Goyal (Africa Chief Economist Office), and Ruozi Song (Development Research Group)
	Regenerative agriculture—farming that restores soil and ecosystem health—has gained global attention as a potential “triple win” for productivity, resilience, and climate adaptation. Yet, in Africa, where smallholder farmers face high costs, credit constraints, and limited local support, large-scale adoption remains difficult. Payments for ecosystem services and emerging carbon markets could help offset initial losses and create new income streams for farmers, while incentivizing climate-friendly practices. Strengthening local institutions and tailoring interventions to local conditions will be key to realizing regenerative agriculture’s promise in the region.  As empirical evidence continues to emerge, understanding the trade-offs between short-term costs and long-term benefits will be crucial for effective policy design. Read more>
Heat and Flood Exposure: Who Bears the Burden in South Asia? Patrick Behrer (Development Research Group), Jonah Rexer (South Asia Chief Economist Office), Siddharth Sharma (South Asia Chief Economist Office), Margaret Triyana (South Asia Chief Economist Office)
	Using newly available, highly granular spatial data, this study examines how households and firms in South Asia are exposed to extreme heat and floods. Unlike previous research limited to broad administrative units, the analysis pinpoints disparities at the neighborhood level: poorer households in both urban and rural areas are more exposed to extreme heat. Smaller firms—key employers of the poor—are also more exposed to climate hazards than larger firms, especially in urban areas. However, the relationship between wealth and flooding exposure is more complex: rural households with higher wealth face greater flood exposure, as fertile agricultural lands are often located in flood-prone areas. These findings underscore the importance of leveraging granular data to identify vulnerabilities and design targeted, pro-poor climate resilient policies. Read more>

📰 News & Calls for Papers:

• Submission Deadline: December 8, 2025. Submit your paper for the 10th Urbanization and Development Conference, which will take place in Washington, DC on March 30-31, 2026.

• Submission Deadline: January 11, 2026. Submit your paper for the second edition of the International Seminar on Trade (ISoT), which will take place in Geneva, Switzerland on May 21-22, 2026.

📅 Past & Upcoming Events: 

• December 2: Join Forhad Shilpi, World Bank Senior Economist and lead author of the report “Rethinking Resilience: Adapting to a Changing Climate” for the next Policy Research Talk at 12:30 pm ET. where she’ll dive into the report key insights.

• (Past event) November 18: Did you miss the session “Policy for the People” by Vijayendra (Biju) Rao? Access the recording and presentation of the event here. 

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