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About the Research Program

The Prosperity Research Program examines how financial systems, private sector dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and global economic integration interact to shape firm behavior, resource allocation, and institutional performance, and how these can work together to drive growth, jobs, and poverty reduction.

Latest Program Highlights

Governments across emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) face a growing fiscal challenge: how to finance essential public services at a time of rising debt burdens, higher interest costs, and uncertain external assistance. Yet the challenge is not simply about how much revenue countries collect. Tax systems in most EMDEs are also inefficient and inequitable, leading to costly economic distortions while failing to adequately support vulnerable households. In this talk, report co-authors will present findings from Raising Revenue Right: A Roadmap for Domestic Resource Mobilization, which examines how countries can leverage technology, transparency, and trust to raise the revenue they need in ways that are more efficient, equitable, and supportive of inclusive growth.
Amidst slower global growth, a shifting labor market, and rising protectionism, governments around the world are increasingly turning to a once controversial policy. Industrial policy—the range of policy tools governments use to shape what an economy produces, rather than leaving it to markets alone—is back with a vengeance. In this talk, report co-authors Ana Margarida Fernandes and Tristan Reed will provide a deep dive into Industrial Policy for Development: Approaches in the 21st Century, which offers the first comprehensive guide to industrial policy for development in the 21st century.

World Development Report 2025: Standards for Development
Policy Research Talk, April 20, 2026

Standards are the hidden infrastructure of modern economies—and they have never been more important. Developing countries today must contend with a thicket of increasingly stringent international standards, a product of globalization and rapid technological change. Using standards—and shaping them—is now a prerequisite for export growth, technology diffusion, and the efficient delivery of public services. Yet standards are too often overlooked by policy makers, especially in developing countries. Join us for this Policy Research Talk on April 20, where World Development Report Director Xavier Giné will provide a deep dive into the World Development Report 2025: Standards for Development.

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WDR 2025 cover image

Trade Watch: Reshaping Trade to Sustain Resilience
Publication, March 23, 2026

Global goods trade expanded in 2025, driven by strong demand for AI-related products, relatively low shipping costs, and the resilience of global value chains — which adapted to policy turbulence through trade diversion and creation. Trade in services continued to grow in 2025 led by strong growth in digitally delivered services. Shipping costs remained relatively low through February 2026, as rapid container fleet expansion kept freight rates in check despite ongoing supply-chain pressures.

Website | Publication | Interactive Dashboard

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Trade Watch ship

International Seminar on Trade (ISoT) – 2nd EditionSeminar, May 2026

The Journal of International Economics, University of Geneva, the World Bank, and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) invite you to participate of the Call for Papers for the second edition of the “International Seminar on Trade” (ISoT) on May 21-22, 2026 in Geneva, Switzerland. ISoT focuses on recent advances in empirical, theoretical, and quantitative international trade.

ISoT - 1st Edition

Since its launch in 2011, the Global Findex has provided critical insights into financial inclusion, digital payments, savings, and borrowing behaviors across various economies. The database highlights key trends such as the rise of digital financial services and the gender gap in account ownership. The Global Findex 2025 introduces the Digital Connectivity Tracker, a new component that measures access to and use of mobile technology. Combined with financial inclusion data, it offers a holistic view of how mobile infrastructure is expanding access to financial services and improving economic resilience.

Launch Video | Download the Report | Data Visualizations | Policy Research Talk (September 30, 2025)

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port, ship, trade, containers, nukualofa, tonga
Key Topics
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Key Topics
Finance & Private Sector Development
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/finance-private-sector
cash-vs-digital-payments-g2p
A well-functioning financial system and a vigorous private sector are important drivers of growth and poverty reduction.
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Macroeconomics & Growth
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/macroeconomics-growth
Construction workers standing on beams
What are the determinants of macroeconomic outcomes, especially growth and jobs? And what is the role of governments in raising and allocating resources?
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Trade & International Integration
https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/trade-and-international-integration
Cargo ship over water.
Global economic integration is a key factor in supporting jobs, growth, and poverty reduction.
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Business Dynamism in MICs
https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/unit/unit-dec/research/initiatives
City street at night
This programs seeks to develop and implement diagnostic tools to identify the policies undermining creative destruction and the business dynamism underlying any fast-growing economy.
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Trade Fragmentation
https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/unit/unit-dec/research/initiatives
Overhead view of a cargo ship
The Trade Fragmentation Research Initiative offers new data sets, visualization tools, and policy modeling frameworks.
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DaTax
https://www.worldbank.org/en/about/unit/unit-dec/research/initiatives
A woman with a calculator doing paperwork
DaTax conducts cutting-edge analytical work with micro tax data, aimed at supporting the development of equitable and sustainable public finance systems.
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Program Highlights
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Program Highlights

Financing Firm Growth: The Role of Capital Markets in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Joint IFC-World Bank Report March 2025

Equity and bond issuance is increasingly driving revenue growth and expansion in developing economies, accounting for $4 trillion in new capital over the last three decades, and a 5 percent lift in jobs. These are some of the findings presented in this new book from the World Bank Group highlighting how capital markets are accounting for a rising share in the financing of companies in low- and middle-income economies that traditionally rely on bank lending.

Report Landing Page | Launch Event | Capital Markets Portal

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Financing Firm Growth book

What Happens When Tariffs and Trade Costs Change?Trade Simulation Tools, 2026

These interactive Trade Policy Simulators allow users to model customized trade policy scenarios and assess their impact on income, exports, and imports across countries.

Trade Visualization Tools | Trade Fragmentation Research Initiative

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Trade facilitation, Pacific, Fiji, import, export, digital, tablet, development

Trade Remains Resilient to Trade-Policy Uncertainty. Check out the latest edition of the Trade Watch ReportTrade Watch Series, Q3, 2025

Global goods trade expanded in the third quarter of 2025 compared with the same period of 2024, despite higher trade-policy uncertainty; Trade in services continued to grow in the July-to-September period, albeit at a slower pace, led by digitally enabled services; Shipping costs remained low, as container fleet expansion continued to restrain shipping costs amid global supply chain pressures.

Publication | Trade Watch Series | Interactive Dashboard

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Trade Watch ship

5th Anniversary WDR 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value ChainsPast event, November 20, 2025, Washington, DC and Online

The 2020 World Development Report explored how global value chains (GVCs) could drive development. Five years later, trade is being reshaped by geopolitical tensions, climate pressures, and technological shifts. The 5th Anniversary Event revisits the WDR’s insights and asks how GVC-based development can evolve in a more fragmented global economy.

Access event materials | Read the World Development Report 2020

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7th World Bank / ODI Global / IFS Public Finance ConferenceConference, September 25–26, 2025

The 2025 conference included sessions on labor taxation and job creation, efficiency of the public sector, emerging tax instruments and policies, government accountability and procurement, and international tax reform. The agenda also featured country-focused sessions on Brazil and Uganda, highlighting recent research on tax policy, social protection, and development.

Conference Agenda | 6th World Bank/IFS/ODI Public Finance Conference: Driving Progress - Public Finance and Structural Transformation | DaTax: A Lab to Study Taxes, Firms and Jobs using Micro Data

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7th World Bank / ODI Global / IFS Public Finance Conference

Purchasing Prosperity: The Economics of Government ProcurementPolicy Research Talk, January 28, 2025

Government procurement is big business, typically accounting for 10 to 20 percent of annual GDP depending on the country and year. In this Policy Research Talk, Manuel García-Santana shares new insights from economic research address key questions on this topic.

Event Information | Presentation | More from Manuel García-Santana

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Purchasing Prosperity new

Enabling Digital Wage Payments: Why (and What) Infrastructure Matters for Inclusive FinanceLiterature Review, December 2024

Digitalizing wage payments can increase account ownership among workers, help them save, and avoid unnecessary fees or commute costs from going to the bank—all while helping firms reduce costs and operate more efficiently. But these benefits only materialize when the right infrastructure is in place. This paper reviews the evidence demonstrating how digital payments can expand financial inclusion.

Research Insights Feature (April 2025)

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digital payment

Access to Finance for Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises in Lao PDRTechnical Note, September 2024

This technical note examines the state of access to and use of financial services for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Lao PDR. Based on extensive interviews with key private and public stakeholders, data collection efforts, and desk reviews of existing reports, laws, regulations, and policies, it provides an overview of the current status of financial inclusion for MSMEs and the enabling environment for MSME finance.

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A woman buys meat at a fresh market in Vientiane, Laos.

World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable RecoveryFlagship Report, March 2022

This report examines the central role of finance in the economic recovery from COVID-19. Based on an in-depth look at the consequences of the crisis most likely to affect low- and middle-income economies, it advocates a set of policies and measures to mitigate the interconnected economic risks stemming from the pandemic, risks that may become more acute as stimulus measures are withdrawn at both the domestic and global levels.

World Development Report 2022 | Launch Event | Report Overview | Video

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Papers & Articles
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Papers & Articles

Latest Journal Articles

Long-term and Lasting Impacts of Personal Initiative Training on Entrepreneurial SuccessFrancisco Campos, Michael Frese, Leonardo Iacovone, Hillary Johnson, David McKenzie, and Mona Mensmann
American Economic Review: Insights, December 2025

Promoting Innovative Startups: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from TunisiaNadia Ali, Massimiliano Cali, and Bob Rijkers
Journal of Development Economics, vol. 177, October 2025

Bayesian Impact Evaluation with Informative Priors: An Application to a Colombian Management and Export Improvement ProgramLeonardo Iacovone, David McKenzie, and Rachael Meager
Econometrica, vol. 93, September 2025

The Quality and Price of Africa's Imports of Digital GoodsPaulo Bastos, Lucio Castro, and Marcio Cruz
The World Economy, vol. 48, September 2025

Are regional fiscal multipliers on EU structural and investment fund spending large? A reassessment of the evidenceFederico Fiuratti, Desislava Nikolova, Steven Pennings, and Marc Schiffbauer
Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 85, September 2025

Long-run Returns to Private Equity in Emerging MarketsShawn Allen Cole, Martin Melecky, Florian Molders, and Tristan Reed
Management Science, August 2025

Natural Resource Dependence and Monopolized ImportsRabah Arezki, Ana Fernandes, Federico Merchán, Ha Nguyen, and Tristan Reed
Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2025

Natural Resoure Dependence and Monopolized ImportsRabah Arezki, Ana Fernandes, Federico Merchán, Ha Nguyen, and Tristan Reed
Review of Economics and Statistics, July 2025

Legal effectiveness and external capital: The role of foreign debtGeorge Allayannis, Gregory W. Brown, and Leora F. Klapper
Journal of Economics and Business, vol. 134-135, March – June 2025

Team Members

Sergio Schmukler
Acting Research Manager and Lead Economist

Erhan Artuc
Senior Economist

Pierre Bachas
Economist

Paulo Bastos
Senior Economist

Anne Beck
Economist

Miriam Bruhn
Senior Economist

Cristina Constantinescu
Economist

Ana Margarida Fernandes
Lead Economist

Devaki Ghose
Research Economist

Xavier Giné
Lead Economist

Yi Jie Gwee
Economist

Roberto N. Fattal Jaef
Senior Economist

Martin Kanz
Senior Economist

Hiau Looi Kee
Lead Economist

Stuti Khemani
Senior Economist

Leora Klapper
Lead Economist

Tatjana Kleineberg
Economist

David McKenzie
Lead Economist

Alvaro Pedraza
Senior Economist

Carolyn Pelnik
Research Economist

Steven Pennings
Senior Economist

Tristan Reed
Economist

Bob Rijkers
Senior Economist

Claudia Ruiz
Senior Economist

Agustin SamanoResearch Economist

Mahvish Shaukat
Economist

Daria Taglioni
Lead Economist

Dario Tortarolo
Economist

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