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Global Economic Prospects

Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long?

Overview

Global Outlook

Global growth is expected to be sustained over the next couple of years—and even accelerate somewhat in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) thanks to a rebound in commodity exporters. Although near-term growth could surprise on the upside, the global outlook is still subject to substantial downside risks, including the possibility of financial stress, increased protectionism, and rising geopolitical tensions. With output gaps closing or closed in many countries, supporting aggregate demand with the use of cyclical policies is becoming less of a priority. Focus should now turn to the structural policies needed to boost longer-term productivity and living standards.

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Regional Outlooks

EMDE growth accelerated in 2017 to 4.3 percent, reflecting a recovery in commodity exporters amid continued robust activity in commodity importers. EMDE growth is projected to further strengthen to 4.5 percent in 2018 and to an average of 4.7 percent in 2019-20—close to potential—as headwinds to commodity exporters dissipate. However, potential growth over the next decade is likely to decline, reflecting the lagged effect of recent investment weakness, slowing productivity growth, and unfavorable demographic trends. A close look at the economic outlook for each region follows.

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    East Asia and Pacific

    Growth in the region is forecast to slip to 6.2 percent in 2018 from an estimated 6.4 percent in 2017. A structural slowdown in China is seen offsetting a modest cyclical pickup in the rest of the region. Risks to the outlook have become more balanced. Stronger-than-expected growth among advanced economies could lead to faster-than-anticipated growth in the region. On the downside, rising geopolitical tension, increased global protectionism, an unexpectedly abrupt tightening of global financial conditions, and steeper-than-expected slowdown in major economies, including China, pose downside risks to the regional outlook. Growth in China is forecast to moderate to 6.4 percent in 2018 from 6.8 percent in 2017. Indonesia is forecast to accelerate to 5.3 percent in 2018 from 5.1 percent in 2017.
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    Europe and Central Asia

    Growth in the region is anticipated to ease to 2.9 percent in 2018 from an estimated 3.8 percent in 2017. A slowdown is expected to continue in the western part of the region due to moderating economic activities in the Euro Area. It is counterbalanced by a gradual recovery in the eastern part of the region, driven by commodity exporting economies. Increased policy uncertainty and a renewed decline in oil prices present risks of lower-than-anticipated growth. Russia is expected to expand by 1.7 percent in 2018, unchanged from its estimated growth rate in 2017. Turkey is projected to moderate to 3.5 percent this year from 6.7 percent in the year just ended.
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    Latin America and the Caribbean

    Growth in the region is projected to advance to 2 percent in 2018, from an estimated 0.9 percent in 2017. Growth momentum is expected to gather as private consumption and investment strengthen, particularly among commodity-exporting economies. Additional policy uncertainty, natural disasters, a rise in trade protectionism in the United States, or further deterioration of domestic fiscal conditions could throw growth off course. Growth in Brazil is expected to pick up to 2 percent in 2018, from an estimated 1 percent in 2017. Growth in Mexico is anticipated to accelerate moderately this year, to 2.1 percent, from an estimated 1.9 percent last year.
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    Middle East and North Africa

    Growth in the region is expected to jump to 3 percent in 2018 from 1.8 percent in 2017. Reforms across the region are expected to gain momentum, fiscal constraints are expected to ease as oil prices stay firm, and improved tourism is anticipated to support growth among economies that are not dependent on oil exports. Continued geopolitical conflicts and oil price weakness could set back economic growth. Growth in Saudi Arabia is forecast to accelerate to 1.2 percent in 2018 from 0.3 percent in 2017, while growth is anticipated to pick up to 4.5 percent in the Arab Republic of Egypt in FY 2018 from 4.2 percent last year.
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    South Asia

    Growth in the region is forecast to accelerate to 6.9 percent in 2018 from an estimated 6.5 percent in 2017. Consumption is expected to stay strong, exports are anticipated to recover, and investment is on track to revive as a result of policy reforms and infrastructure upgrades. Setbacks to reform efforts, natural disasters, or an upswing in global financial volatility could slow growth. India is expected to pick up to a 7.3 percent rate in fiscal year 2018/19, which begins April 1, from 6.7 percent in FY 2017/18. Pakistan is anticipated to accelerate to 5.8 percent in FY 2018/19, which begins July 1, from 5.5 percent in FY 2017/18.
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    Sub-Saharan Africa

    Growth in the region is anticipated to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2018 from 2.4 percent in 2017. Stronger growth will depend on a firming of commodity prices and implementation of reforms. A drop in commodity prices, steeper-than-anticipated global interest rate increases, and inadequate efforts to ameliorate debt dynamics could set back economic growth. South Africa is forecast to tick up to 1.1 percent growth in 2018 from 0.8 percent in 2017. Nigeria is anticipated to accelerate to a 2.5 percent expansion this year from 1 percent in the year just ended.

Four Topical Issues

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Building Solid Foundations: How to Promote Potential Growth

Despite a recent acceleration of global economic activity, potential output growth is flagging. At 2.5 percent in 2013-17, post-crisis potential growth is 0.5 percentage point below its longer-term average and 0.9 percentage point below its average a decade ago, with an even steeper decline in emerging market and developing economies. This slowdown mainly reflects weaker capital accumulation, but is also evidence of slowing productivity growth and demographic trends that dampen labor supply growth. These forces will continue and, unless counter... See More

Four Topical Issues

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Is the Global Economy Turning the Corner?

2018 will likely mark a turning point for the global economy because, for the first time since 2008, the negative global output gap is expected to be closed. Among EMDEs, helped by the recent recovery in commodity markets, and advanced economies, negative gaps should approach zero. The closing gaps in major advanced economies would allow a normalization of monetary policy, after a decade of exceptional easing. With the anticipated further withdrawal of stimulus by advanced economies, EMDE policymakers need to remain alert to the potential for a... See More

Four Topical Issues

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With the Benefit of Hindsight: The Impact of the 2014-16 Oil Price Collapse

The 2014-16 collapse in oil prices was one of the largest in modern history. It was caused by a combination of booming U.S. shale oil production, receding geopolitical concerns, shifting OPEC policies, and softening demand prospects. Lower oil prices failed to provide a boost to global growth, reflecting the low responsiveness of activity in key oil-importing emerging markets, the dampening impact of a sharp contraction in energy investment and rapid appreciation of the U.S. dollar in the United States, and an abrupt slowdown in some key oil ex... See More

Four Topical Issues

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Education Demographics and Global Inequality

An expected shift in the skill composition of the global labor force will have important consequences for the future of global income inequality. Specifically, a more educated labor force from emerging market and developing economies will likely reduce inequality between countries. It would also diminish inequality within countries, especially in emerging market and developing economies.

Data

Global growth is projected to edge up to 3.1 percent in 2018 and ease slightly in 2019-20. Click on button to download the data into Excel. Download the report's statistical appendix in PDF format. Charts can be generated by visiting the World Bank's DataBank website.

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    Global

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Real GDP1            
    World 2.8 2.4 3.0 3.1 3.0 2.9
       Advanced Economies 2.2 1.6 2.3 2.2 1.9 1.7
            United States 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.2 2.0
            Euro Area 2.1 1.8 2.4 2.1 1.7 1.5
            Japan 1.4 0.9 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.5
       Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDE) 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.7
               Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.7 3.1 3.1
               Other EMDE 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.7
                  Other EMDE excluding China 5.2 4.9 5.1 4.8 5.1 5.1
          East Asia and Pacific 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0
               China 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2
               Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3
               Thailand 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4
          Europe and Central Asia 1.0 1.7 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.0
               Russia -2.8 -0.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
               Turkey 6.1 3.2 6.7 3.5 4.0 4.0
               Poland 3.8 2.9 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1
          Latin America and the Caribbean -0.6 -1.5 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.7
               Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5
               Mexico 3.3 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.6
               Argentina 2.6 -2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2
          Middle East and North Africa 2.8 5.0 1.8 3.0 3.2 3.2
               Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.2
               Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.3 13.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.3
               Egypt, Arab Rep.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.8
          South Asia 7.1 7.5 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.2
               India3 8.0 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.5
               Pakistan2 4.1 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0
               Bangladesh2 6.6 7.1 7.2 6.4 6.7 6.7
          Sub-Saharan Africa 3.1 1.3 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.6
               South Africa 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7
               Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 1.0 2.5 2.8 2.8
               Angola 3.0 0.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5
    Memorandum items:            
       Real GDP1            
          High-income countries 2.3 1.7 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.8
          Developing countries 3.6 3.8 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.9
             Low-income countries 4.7 4.5 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.7
          BRICS 4.0 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.4
          World (2010 PPP weights) 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
       World trade volume4 2.7 2.3 4.3 4.0 3.9 3.8
       Commodity prices            
          Oil price5 -47.3 -15.6 23.8 9.4 1.7 1.7
          Non-energy commodity price index -15.0 -2.6 4.9 0.6 0.8 1.2

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time. Country classifications and lists of emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are presented in Table 1.2. BRICS include: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

    1. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights.

    2. GDP growth values are on a fiscal year basis. Aggregates that include these countries are calculated using data compiled on a calendar year basis. Pakistan’s growth rates are based on GDP at factor cost. The column labeled 2017 refers to FY2016/17.

    3. The column labeled 2016 refers to FY2016/17.

    4. World trade volume of goods and non-factor services.

    5. Simple average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate.

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    East Asia and Pacific

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    East Asia and Pacific, GDP1 6.5 6.3 6.4 6.2 6.1 6.0
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    East Asia and Pacific, GDP2 6.5 6.3 6.5 6.2 6.1 6.0
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 5.8 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.4
            PPP GDP 6.4 6.3 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.9
        Private consumption 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9
        Public consumption 8.5 9.1 9.1 7.8 6.6 6.5
        Fixed investment 6.7 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.7
        Exports, GNFS3 0.8 1.8 4.3 4.1 4.5 4.7
        Imports, GNFS3 1.3 3.8 5.5 5.2 5.3 5.3
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1
    Memo items: GDP            
        East Asia excluding China 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.2
        China 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2
        Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3
        Thailand 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    2. Sub-region aggregate excludes American Samoa, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Myanmar, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Timor-Leste, Tonga, and Tuvalu, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Cambodia 7.0 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.7 6.7
    China 6.9 6.7 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.2
    Fiji 3.6 0.4 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2
    Indonesia 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.3 5.3
    Lao PDR 7.4 7.0 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.9
    Malaysia 5.0 4.2 5.8 5.2 5.0 4.7
    Mongolia 2.2 1.4 2.8 3.1 7.3 5.5
    Myanmar 7.0 5.9 6.4 6.7 6.9 6.9
    Papua New Guinea 8.0 2.4 2.1 2.5 2.4 3.4
    Philippines 6.1 6.9 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.5
    Solomon Islands 2.5 3.3 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.7
    Thailand 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4
    Timor-Leste2 4.0 5.7 2.4 4.2 5.0 5.0
    Vietnam 6.7 6.2 6.7 6.5 6.5 6.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    2. Non-oil GDP. Timor-Leste’s total GDP, including the oil economy, is roughly four times the non-oil economy. It is highly volatile, sensitive to changes in global oil prices and local production levels.

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    Europe and Central Asia

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP1 1.0 1.7 3.8 2.9 3.0 3.0
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP excl. Russia 3.6 2.9 5.1 3.6 3.8 3.7
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP2 0.9 1.6 3.8 2.9 3.0 2.9
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.5 1.2 3.4 2.5 2.7 2.7
            PPP GDP 0.6 1.6 3.6 2.9 3.0 2.9
        Private consumption -2.7 0.0 4.2 3.3 3.3 3.3
        Public consumption 0.2 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6
        Fixed investment 0.4 0.5 4.7 3.7 3.9 3.8
        Exports, GNFS3 3.8 2.7 5.8 4.7 4.7 4.6
        Imports, GNFS3 -5.7 1.5 6.6 5.5 5.4 5.2
        Net exports, contribution to growth 3.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
    Memo items: GDP            
    Commodity exporters4 -2.3 0.3 2.1 2.1 2.3 2.3
    Commodity importers5 4.5 3.0 5.5 3.7 3.7 3.6
    Central Europe6 3.7 3.2 4.7 4.0 3.5 3.2
    Western Balkans7 2.1 2.9 2.7 3.3 3.6 3.8
    Eastern Europe8 -7.6 0.8 2.0 3.1 3.5 3.5
    South Caucasus9 1.7 -1.6 0.3 1.9 2.5 3.3
    Central Asia10 3.3 3.3 4.6 3.8 4.1 4.3
    Russian Federation -2.8 -0.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
    Turkey 6.1 3.2 6.7 3.5 4.0 4.0
    Poland 3.8 2.9 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    2. Sub-region aggregate excludes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kosovo, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

    5. Includes Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Georgia, Hungary, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, and Turkey.

    6. Includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania.

    7. Includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.

    8. Includes Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine.

    9. Includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

    10. Includes Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Albania 2.2 3.4 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.5
    Armenia 3.2 0.2 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.0
    Azerbaijan 1.1 -3.1 -1.4 0.9 1.5 2.6
    Belarus -3.8 -2.6 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.4
    Bosnia and Herzegovina2 3.0 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5
    Bulgaria 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.9
    Croatia 2.3 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 3.0
    Georgia 2.9 2.8 4.3 4.2 4.7 5.0
    Hungary 3.4 2.2 3.9 3.8 3.1 2.9
    Kazakhstan 1.2 1.1 3.7 2.6 2.8 3.0
    Kosovo 4.1 3.4 4.4 4.8 4.8 4.7
    Kyrgyz Republic 3.9 3.8 3.5 4.2 4.8 4.6
    Macedonia, FYR 3.8 2.4 1.5 3.2 3.9 4.0
    Moldova -0.4 4.3 3.5 3.8 3.6 3.3
    Montenegro 3.4 2.9 4.2 2.8 2.5 2.1
    Poland 3.8 2.9 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.1
    Romania 3.9 4.8 6.4 4.5 4.1 3.5
    Russian Federation -2.8 -0.2 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8
    Serbia 0.8 2.8 2.0 3.0 3.5 4.0
    Tajikistan 6.0 6.9 5.2 5.0 5.5 5.7
    Turkey 6.1 3.2 6.7 3.5 4.0 4.0
    Turkmenistan 6.5 6.2 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3
    Ukraine -9.8 2.3 2.0 3.5 4.0 4.0
    Uzbekistan 8.0 7.8 6.2 5.6 6.3 6.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars, unless indicated otherwise.

    2. GDP growth rate is based on production approach.

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    Latin America and the Caribbean

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
     Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP1 -0.6 -1.5 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.7
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
     Latin America and the Caribbean, GDP2 -0.6 -1.5 0.9 2.0 2.6 2.7
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) -1.7 -2.6 -0.1 1.0 1.6 1.7
            PPP GDP 0.0 -0.9 1.2 2.2 2.7 2.8
        Private consumption -0.4 -1.4 1.1 2.1 2.7 2.9
        Public consumption 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.9 0.7
        Fixed investment -5.7 -6.1 -0.8 2.6 3.6 3.7
        Exports, GNFS3 4.0 1.4 4.1 3.9 4.0 3.8
        Imports, GNFS3 -2.3 -2.2 4.0 3.5 4.2 4.0
        Net exports, contribution to growth 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
    Memo items: GDP            
        South America4 -2.0 -3.2 0.4 1.9 2.5 2.7
        Mexico and Central America5 3.4 3.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.7
        Caribbean6 3.4 2.7 2.3 3.5 3.5 3.4
        Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5
        Mexico7 3.3 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.6
        Argentina 2.6 -2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Cuba.

    2. Aggregate includes all countries in notes 4, 5, and 6 except Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Suriname, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and Venezuela.

    5. Includes Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama.

    6. Includes Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

    7. Recent statistical changes in the measurement of Mexico’s GDP, including a change rebasing from 2008 to 2013, has resulted in significant changes to historical growth rates compared
    to June 2017.

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Argentina 2.6 -2.2 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.2
    Belize 2.9 -0.8 0.8 2.2 1.7 1.7
    Bolivia 4.9 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.3
    Brazil -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.0 2.3 2.5
    Chile 2.3 1.6 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.8
    Colombia 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.9 3.4 3.4
    Costa Rica 4.7 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.5
    Dominican Republic 7.0 6.6 4.5 4.9 4.7 4.7
    Ecuador 0.2 -1.5 1.4 0.8 0.9 1.0
    El Salvador 2.3 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.9
    Grenada 6.2 3.9 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1
    Guatemala 4.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.5
    Guyana 3.1 3.4 2.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
    Haiti2 1.2 1.4 1.1 2.2 2.5 2.5
    Honduras 3.6 3.6 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.5
    Jamaica 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.0
    Mexico3 3.3 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.6
    Nicaragua 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4
    Panama 5.8 4.9 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.7
    Paraguay 3.0 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0
    Peru 3.3 4.0 2.6 3.8 3.8 4.0
    St. Lucia 2.0 0.9 2.0 2.2 1.8 1.8
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines 1.4 1.9 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.8
    Suriname -2.7 -5.1 0.0 2.2 1.2 1.2
    Trinidad and Tobago -0.6 -5.4 -3.2 1.9 2.2 1.6
    Uruguay 0.4 1.5 2.5 2.8 3.2 3.2
    Venezuela, RB -8.2 -16.1 -11.9 -4.2 0.6 0.9

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    2. GDP is based on fiscal year, which runs from October to September of next year.

    3. Recent statistical changes in the measurement of Mexico’s GDP, including a change rebasing from 2008 to 2013, has resulted in significant changes to historical growth rates
    compared to June 2017.

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    Middle East and North Africa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Middle East and North Africa, GDP1 2.8 5.0 1.8 3.0 3.2 3.2
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Middle East and North Africa, GDP2 2.6 4.8 2.0 2.9 3.3 3.3
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.7 3.0 0.3 1.3 1.8 1.9
            PPP GDP 2.6 5.1 2.2 3.1 3.5 3.5
        Private consumption -0.2 4.2 2.3 3.0 3.3 3.3
        Public consumption 0.3 -5.0 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8
        Fixed investment 1.2 -1.4 2.9 5.1 6.1 6.0
        Exports, GNFS3 2.5 6.4 2.1 3.7 3.6 3.7
        Imports, GNFS3 -2.3 -1.9 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.3
        Net exports, contribution to growth 2.1 3.7 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.6
    Memo items: GDP            
     Oil exporters4 2.6 5.5 1.3 2.8 3.0 2.9
       GCC countries5 3.6 2.5 0.7 2.0 2.7 2.7
       Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.2
       Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.3 13.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.3
     Oil importers6 3.6 2.9 3.7 3.9 4.3 4.5
       Egypt, Arab Rep. 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.6 5.8
         Fiscal year basis7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.8

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Libya, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen due to data limitations.

    2. Aggregate includes all countries in notes 4 and 6 except Djibouti, Iraq, Qatar, and West Bank and Gaza, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Oil exporters include Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    5. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    6. Oil importers include Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza.

    7. The fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30 in Egypt; the column labeled 2017 reflects the fiscal year ended June 30, 2017.

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Algeria 3.7 3.3 2.2 3.6 2.5 1.6
    Bahrain 2.9 3.2 2.4 2.0 1.6 1.7
    Djibouti 6.5 6.5 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0
    Egypt, Arab Rep. 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.6 5.8
      Fiscal year basis2 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 5.8
    Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.3 13.4 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.3
    Iraq 4.8 11.0 -0.8 4.7 1.7 1.9
    Jordan 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5
    Kuwait 0.6 3.6 -1.0 1.9 3.5 3.5
    Lebanon 0.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.0 2.0
    Morocco 4.5 1.2 4.1 3.1 3.2 3.2
    Oman 4.7 5.4 0.7 2.3 2.5 2.5
    Qatar 3.6 2.2 1.7 2.6 3.0 3.0
    Saudi Arabia 4.1 1.7 0.3 1.2 2.1 2.2
    Tunisia 1.1 1.0 2.0 2.7 3.3 4.0
    United Arab Emirates 3.8 3.0 1.4 3.1 3.3 3.3
    West Bank and Gaza 3.4 4.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Libya, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of Yemen due to data limitations.

    2. The fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30 in Egypt; the column labeled 2017 reflects the fiscal year ended June 30, 2017.

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    South Asia

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    South Asia, GDP1, 2 7.1 7.5 6.5      6.9      7.2      7.2
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)3
    South Asia, GDP3 7.1 7.5 6.5      6.9      7.2      7.2
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 5.8 6.2 5.3      5.7      6.0      6.0
            PPP GDP 7.1 7.5 6.5      6.9      7.2      7.2
        Private consumption 5.4 8.3 7.2      7.2      7.1      7.1
        Public consumption 2.6 13.7 9.2      9.7      9.2      9.2
        Fixed investment 5.5 4.9 5.3      6.1      7.0      7.7
        Exports, GNFS4 -5.2 1.0 4.4      5.5      6.5      6.7
        Imports, GNFS4 -4.0 0.4 5.8      5.4      5.7      5.9
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1
    Memo items: GDP2 15/16 16/17 17/18e 18/19f 19/20f 20/21f
        South Asia excluding India                                            5.4 5.7 5.6      5.8      5.9      6.0
            India 8.0 7.1 6.7      7.3      7.5      7.5
            Pakistan (factor cost) 4.5 5.3 5.5      5.8      6.0      6.0
            Bangladesh 7.1 7.2 6.4      6.7      6.7      6.7

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    2. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries, while aggregates are presented in calendar year (CY) terms. The fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India.

    3. Sub-region aggregate excludes Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Maldives, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    4. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    GDP growth 2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Calendar year basis1            
    Afghanistan 1.1 2.2 2.6 3.4 3.1 3.1
    Maldives 3.3 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0
    Sri Lanka 4.8 4.4 4.1 5.0 5.1 5.1
    Fiscal year basis1 15/16 16/17 17/18e 18/19f 19/20f 20/21f
    Bangladesh 7.1 7.2 6.4 6.7 6.7 6.7
    Bhutan 6.6 8.0 6.7 6.9 7.6 7.6
    India 8.0 7.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.5
    Nepal 0.4 7.5 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.5
    Pakistan (factor cost) 4.5 5.3 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.0

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. Historical data is reported on a market price basis. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries with the exception of Afghanistan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, which report in calendar year (CY). The fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India.

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    Sub-Saharan Africa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2015 2016 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDP1 3.1 1.3 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.6
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)2
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDP2 3.1 1.3 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.5
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.4 -1.4 -0.3 0.5 0.8 0.9
            PPP GDP 3.3 1.6 2.7 3.5 3.7 3.8
        Private consumption 5.5 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.8
        Public consumption -3.1 2.8 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.7
        Fixed investment 1.3 1.6 5.2 6.8 7.1 7.2
        Exports, GNFS3 2.3 0.4 2.5 3.2 3.4 3.5
        Imports, GNFS3 0.7 0.0 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.2
        Net exports, contribution to growth 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
    Memo items: GDP            
    SSA ex. Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa 4.6 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.2
    Oil exporters4 2.8 -0.4 1.5 2.8 2.8 3.0
    CFA countries5 3.8 2.8 3.2 4.3 4.6 4.9
        CEMAC  1.5 -1.0 -0.4 1.9 2.4 3.0
        WAEMU  6.2 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5
    SSA3 2.1 -0.6 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.2
        South Africa 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7
        Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 1.0 2.5 2.8 2.8
        Angola 3.0 0.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. EMDE = emerging market and developing economy. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan.

    2. Sub-region aggregate excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    3. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    4. Includes Angola; Cameroon; Chad; Congo, Democratic Republic; Congo, Republic; Gabon; Ghana; Nigeria; and South Sudan.

    5. Includes Benin; Burkina Faso; Cameroon; Central African Republic; Chad; Congo, Republic; Côte d’Ivoire; Equatorial Guinea; Gabon; Mali; Niger; Senegal; and Togo.

    GDP growth1 2015 2016 2017e 2918f 2019f 2020f
    Angola 3.0 0.0 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5
    Benin 2.1 4.0 5.4 6.0 6.3 6.7
    Botswana2 -1.7 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 4.8
    Burkina Faso 4.0 5.9 6.4 6.0 6.0 6.0
    Burundi -3.9 -0.6 0.5 1.5 2.5 2.5
    Cabo Verde 0.9 3.8 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.8
    Cameroon 5.8 4.5 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3
    Chad 1.8 -6.4 -2.7 3.7 2.9 6.8
    Comoros 1.0 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9
    Congo, Dem. Rep. 6.9 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.3
    Congo, Rep. 2.6 -2.8 -1.1 2.3 1.5 1.5
    Côte d'Ivoire 8.9 8.3 7.6 7.2 7.2 7.2
    Equatorial Guinea -9.1 -9.0 -8.5 -6.0 -4.2 -4.2
    Ethiopia2 9.6 7.5 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.8
    Gabon 4.0 2.1 1.1 2.4 3.7 3.7
    Gambia, The 4.1 2.2 3.0 3.5 4.2 4.2
    Ghana 3.8 3.7 6.1 8.3 5.5 5.5
    Guinea 3.5 6.6 6.7 5.8 5.9 5.9
    Guinea-Bissau 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.2 5.4 5.4
    Kenya 5.7 5.8 4.9 5.5 5.9 5.9
    Lesotho 5.6 2.3 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2
    Liberia 0.0 -1.6 2.5 3.9 5.0 6.0
    Madagascar 3.1 4.2 4.1 5.1 5.6 5.4
    Malawi 2.8 2.5 4.5 5.0 5.4 5.4
    Mali 5.7 5.8 5.3 5.0 4.7 4.7
    Mauritania 1.4 2.0 3.5 3.0 4.6 4.6
    Mauritius 3.5 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7
    Mozambique 6.6 3.8 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4
    Namibia 6.0 1.1 1.7 3.0 3.5 3.5
    Niger 4.0 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.6
    Nigeria 2.7 -1.6 1.0 2.5 2.8 2.8
    Rwanda 8.9 5.9 5.2 5.9 6.8 6.8
    Senegal 6.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0
    Seychelles 3.5 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5
    Sierra Leone -20.6 6.3 5.6 6.3 6.7 6.7
    South Africa 1.3 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.7 1.7
    Sudan 4.9 4.7 4.1 3.7 3.7 3.7
    Swaziland 1.5 1.3 0.9 1.9 1.8 1.8
    Tanzania 7.0 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.9
    Togo 5.3 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.4
    Uganda2 5.2 4.7 4.0 5.1 5.7 6.0
    Zambia 2.9 3.0 4.2 4.5 5.0 5.0
    Zimbabwe 1.4 0.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.2

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    1. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan.

    2. Fiscal-year-based numbers.

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