Overview

Global Outlook

Growth prospects have weakened throughout the world economy, according to the June 2016 Global Economic Prospects. Global growth for 2016 is projected at 2.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are facing stronger headwinds, including weaker growth among advanced economies and low commodity prices. Significant divergences persist between commodity exporters struggling to adjust to depressed prices and commodity importers showing continued resilience.

Global growth is projected to pick up to 3 percent by 2018, as stabilizing commodity prices provide support to commodity exporting EMDEs. Downside risks have become more pronounced. These include deteriorating conditions among key commodity exporters, softer-than-expected activity in advanced economies, rising private sector debt in some large emerging markets, and heightened policy and geopolitical uncertainties.

 

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Regional Outlook

Weakness in emerging market and developing economies in 2015 has carried over into 2016. Aggregate growth for this group is projected at 3.5 percent in 2016, only marginally up from a post-crisis low of 3.4 percent in 2015. However, there are substantial differences in economic prospects between commodity exporters and importers. Regions with a large number of importers (East Asia and Pacific, South Asia) are expected to show resilience, while the outlook for regions with a sizable number of exporters (Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa) continued to deteriorate since the start of the year. 

  • East Asia and Pacific

    Regional growth slowed to 6.5 percent in 2015, and is expected to decelerate to 6.2 percent during 2016-18. The gradual slowdown in China more than offsets a nascent pickup in activity elsewhere in the region, supported by public investment and robust private consumption. Short-term risks are broadly balanced. On the downside, they include a sharper-than-expected slowdown in China (although a low-probability scenario), and tighter financing conditions amid high corporate and household leverage in the region. Since the region is highly open to trade, a pickup in advanced country growth, or further declines in commodity prices, are upside risks.

    East Asia and Pacific regional forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    East Asia and Pacific, GDPa 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b
    East Asia and Pacific, GDPb 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.1 6.1
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 6.4 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
            PPP GDP 7.0 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.1 6.1
        Private consumption 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0
        Public consumption 7.7 4.3 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.8
        Fixed investment 8.8 7.1 6.6 6.4 6.3 5.7
        Exports, GNFSc 7.2 6.5 2.5 3.4 4.3 4.8
        Imports, GNFSc 8.5 5.7 2.1 4.0 4.8 5.4
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1
    Memo items: GDP                                                      
        East Asia excluding China                                             5.1 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 5.2
        China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3
        Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5
        Thailand 2.7 0.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.0

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. Regional average includes emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), as defined in Annex 1 of the report. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes American Samoa, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Federated States, Myanmar, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Timor-Leste, Tonga, and Tuvalu, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    East Asia and the Pacific country forecastsa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Cambodia 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.8
    China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3
    Fiji 4.6 5.3 4.0 2.4 3.8 3.5
    Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5
    Lao PDR 8.5 7.5 7.0 7.0 7.0 6.8
    Malaysia 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.4 4.5 4.7
    Mongolia 11.6 7.9 2.3 0.7 2.7 6.2
    Myanmar 8.5 8.5 7.0 7.8 8.4 8.3
    Papua New Guinea 5.5 8.5 8.6 3.0 4.1 2.9
    Philippines 7.1 6.1 5.8 6.4 6.2 6.2
    Solomon Islands 3.0 1.5 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.0
    Thailand 2.7 0.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.0
    Timor-Lesteb 2.8 6.0 4.3 5.0 5.5 5.5
    Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.3

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

    b. Non-oil GDP. Timor-Leste's total GDP, including the oil economy, is roughly four times the non-oil economy, and highly volatile, sensitive to changes in global oil prices and local production levels.

  • Europe and Central Asia

    Economic activity in emerging market Europe and Central Asia stagnated in 2015, driven by the deep recession in the Russian Federation. Excluding Russia, regional growth remained at the 2014 rate of 2.5 percent. Turkey saw continued robust growth, while commodity exporters generally slowed. Despite the uptick in oil prices in April and May, they remain at low levels and continue to exert pressure on key oil exporters, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, where government policy buffers are eroding. Regional growth is expected to pick up to only 1.2 percent in 2016, as the Russian economy contracts further (albeit at a shallower pace) and political uncertainty in Turkey and Ukraine weighs on confidence. With a return to positive growth in Russia and Ukraine, regional growth will accelerate to about 2.6 percent in 2017-18. Key downside risks include geopolitical flare-ups, pressures from persistently low oil prices, less favorable external financing conditions as substantial bond repayments come due, and political polarization.

    Europe and Central Asia regional forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Europe and Central Asia, GDPa 2.3 1.8 -0.1 1.2 2.5 2.8
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP excl. Russia 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.2 3.4
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b  
    Europe and Central Asia, GDPb 2.3 1.8 -0.2 1.2 2.4 2.8
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 1.8 1.3 -0.5 0.9 2.2 2.6
            PPP GDP 2.3 1.7 -0.3 1.1 2.4 2.8
        Private consumption 3.8 1.3 -3.0 1.9 2.5 3.0
        Public consumption 2.7 1.1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.5
        Fixed investment 1.3 4.8 -1.7 -1.0 4.4 5.7
        Exports, GNFSc 3.3 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.6
        Imports, GNFSc 3.4 -1.3 -7.0 3.3 4.7 6.3
        Net exports, contribution to growth 0.0 1.2 3.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.7
    Memo items: GDP                                                      
    Central Europed 1.6 2.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2
    Western Balkanse 2.4 0.5 2.3 2.7 3.1 3.7
    Eastern Europef 0.6 -3.9 -7.8 -0.3 1.2 2.3
    South Caucasusg 5.1 3.2 1.6 -0.5 1.7 2.2
    Central Asiah 6.7 5.4 3.0 2.1 3.4 4.6
    Russian Federation 1.3 0.7 -3.7 -1.2 1.4 1.8
    Turkey 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.6
    Poland 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. Regional average includes emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), as defined in Annex 1 of the report. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    d. Includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, and Romania.

    e. Includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia.

    f. Includes Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine.

    g. Includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

    h. Includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

     

    Europe and Central Asia country forecastsa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Albania 1.1 2.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.8
    Armenia 3.3 3.5 3.0 1.9 2.8 2.9
    Azerbaijan 5.8 2.8 1.1 -1.9 0.7 1.3
    Belarus 1.1 1.6 -3.9 -3.0 -1.0 0.3
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 2.3 1.1 3.2 2.6 3.1 3.5
    Bulgaria 1.3 1.6 3.0 2.2 2.7 3.0
    Croatia -1.1 -0.4 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.4
    Georgia 3.4 4.6 2.8 3.0 4.5 5.0
    Hungary 1.9 3.7 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.3
    Kazakhstan 5.8 4.1 1.2 0.1 1.9 3.7
    Kosovo 3.4 1.2 3.6 3.6 4.0 4.1
    Kyrgyz Republic 10.9 4.0 3.5 3.4 3.1 4.1
    Macedonia, FYR 2.9 3.5 3.7 3.7 4.0 4.0
    Moldova 9.4 4.6 -0.5 0.5 4.0 4.5
    Montenegro 3.5 1.8 3.4 3.7 3.1 3.0
    Poland 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5
    Romania 3.4 2.8 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.4
    Russian Federation 1.3 0.7 -3.7 -1.2 1.4 1.8
    Serbia 2.6 -1.8 0.8 1.8 2.3 3.5
    Tajikistan 7.4 6.7 4.2 4.0 4.8 5.3
    Turkey 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.6
    Turkmenistan 10.2 10.3 6.5 5.0 5.0 5.0
    Ukraine 0.0 -6.6 -9.9 1.0 2.0 3.0
    Uzbekistan 8.0 8.1 8.0 7.3 7.2 7.2

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

  • Latin America and the Caribbean

    Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to face another year of weak economic performance due to domestic challenges among the region’s largest economies, depressed commodity prices, and tighter regional monetary conditions. Output is expected to shrink another 1.3 percent this year, after declining 0.7 percent in 2015, marking a second consecutive year of recession for the first time in more than 30 years. Brazil and the República Bolivariana de Venezuela are in deep recessions, while Argentina is expected to contract modestly as it embarks on a period of macroeconomic policy adjustments toward more sustainable growth. In contrast, Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean are expected to expand at moderate rates in 2016, boosted by robust growth in exports and tourism. The region as a whole is projected to return to growth in 2017-18, as domestic constraints gradually loosen and net exports continue picking up.

    Latin America and the Caribbean regional forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Latin America and the Caribbean, GDPa 2.9 1.0 -0.7 -1.3 1.2 2.1
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b  
    Latin America and the Caribbean, GDPb 2.9 1.0 -0.7 -1.3 1.2 2.1
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 1.7 -0.1 -1.8 -2.4 0.1 1.0
            PPP GDP 3.0 1.3 -0.1 -0.8 1.5 2.2
        Private consumption 3.6 0.1 -0.8 -1.3 0.6 1.8
        Public consumption 2.6 4.2 0.7 -3.3 -1.1 0.4
        Fixed investment 2.9 -0.9 -5.5 -4.6 1.0 2.8
        Exports, GNFSc 1.4 1.6 3.5 3.9 4.4 4.8
        Imports, GNFSc 2.8 -0.2 -3.0 -0.9 1.2 3.8
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.3 0.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.3
    Memo items: GDP                                                      
        South Americad 3.3 0.4 -1.9 -2.8 0.5 1.7
        Mexico and Central Americae 1.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.1
        Caribbeanf 3.1 3.8 3.4 2.6 3.2 3.2
        Brazil 3.0 0.1 -3.8 -4.0 -0.2 0.8
        Mexico 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.0
        Argentina 2.9 0.5 2.1 -0.5 3.1 3.0

    Source: World Bank.
    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.
    a. Regional average includes emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), as defined in Annex 1 of the report. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Cuba.
    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Suriname, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.
    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).
    d. Includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, República Bolivariana de Venezuela, and Uruguay.
    e. Includes Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and El Salvador.
    f. Includes Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. 

    Latin America and the Caribbean country forecastsa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Argentina 2.9 0.5 2.1 -0.5 3.1 3.0
    Belize 1.3 4.1 0.9 0.8 1.8 2.2
    Bolivia 6.8 5.5 4.8 3.7 3.4 3.4
    Brazil 3.0 0.1 -3.8 -4.0 -0.2 0.8
    Chile 4.3 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3
    Colombia 4.9 4.4 3.1 2.5 3.0 3.5
    Costa Rica 3.4 3.5 2.8 3.3 3.6 4.0
    Dominica 1.7 3.4 -4.0 2.5 2.0 2.0
    Dominican Republic 4.8 7.4 6.9 5.0 4.3 4.0
    Ecuador 4.6 3.7 0.3 -4.0 -4.0 0.0
    El Salvador 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.3
    Guatemala 3.7 4.2 4.1 3.5 3.5 3.6
    Guyana 5.2 3.8 3.0 4.0 3.9 3.8
    Haitib 4.2 2.8 1.2 0.9 1.9 2.2
    Honduras 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.5
    Jamaica 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.6
    Mexico 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.0
    Nicaragua 4.5 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.2 4.1
    Panama 8.4 6.2 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2
    Paraguay 14.0 4.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4
    Peru 5.9 2.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.2
    St. Lucia -1.9 -0.7 1.6 1.5 2.0 2.0
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines 2.3 -0.2 1.8 2.4 3.1 3.1
    Trinidad and Tobago 2.3 -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 2.0 2.5
    Uruguay 4.6 3.2 1.0 0.7 1.6 2.5
    Venezuela, RB 1.3 -3.9 -5.7 -10.1 -3.4 1.6

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    b. GDP is based on fiscal year, which runs from October to September of next year

     

  • Middle East and North Africa

    Growth in the Middle East and North Africa was an estimated 2.6 percent in 2015, slightly weaker than in 2014. The sharp drop in oil prices over the past two years and the continuation of several serious conflicts are major factors holding back activity in the region. Growth is expected to be little changed in 2016, at 2.9 percent. The marginal improvement is largely due to the expected strong recovery in the Islamic Republic of Iran following the lifting of sanctions in January 2016. Growth in most other oil-exporting countries, including most Gulf Cooperation Council countries, will weaken in 2016, while performance in oil-importing countries will be mixed because of varied macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside and include further declines in oil prices, the escalation of conflict in some countries, and fragile security conditions in others.

    Middle East and North Africa regional forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Middle East and North Africa, GDPa 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.6
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b  
    Middle East and North Africa, GDPb 2.0 3.4 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.3
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 0.0 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.5 1.8
            PPP GDP 1.8 3.5 2.7 2.9 3.3 3.5
        Private consumption 3.1 3.8 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.3
        Public consumption 6.6 6.8 2.3 0.2 0.7 2.2
        Fixed investment 2.6 3.2 -2.6 -2.4 1.8 2.3
        Exports, GNFSc 1.4 3.3 3.5 4.9 4.6 4.4
        Imports, GNFSc 3.2 5.4 0.9 -0.5 3.3 4.0
        Net exports, contribution to growth -0.6 -0.6 1.4 2.6 1.0 0.7
    Memo items: GDP            
     Oil exporters 1.8 3.0 2.5 2.9 3.5 3.5
       GCC countriesd 3.3 3.4 2.9 2.0 2.3 2.7
           Saudi Arabia 2.7 3.6 3.4 1.9 2.0 2.3
       Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.9 4.3 1.6 4.4 4.9 4.7
     Oil importers 2.9 2.7 3.3 2.9 3.7 4.0
       Egypt, Arab Rep. 1.4 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.6
          Fiscal year basis 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.3 4.2 4.6

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. Regional average includes emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), as defined in Annex 1 of the report. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Syrian Arab Republic and Republic of Yemen due to data limitations.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes Djibouti, Iraq, Libya, and West Bank and Gaza, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    d. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and United Arab Emirates.

    Middle East and North Africa country forecastsa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Algeria 2.8 4.1 2.9 3.4 3.1 2.7
    Bahrain 5.4 4.5 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.9
    Djibouti 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.0
    Egypt, Arab Rep. 1.4 4.0 3.6 3.8 4.4 4.6
       Fiscal year basis 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.3 4.2 4.6
    Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.9 4.3 1.6 4.4 4.9 4.7
    Iraq 6.6 -2.1 2.4 7.2 4.7 5.2
    Jordan 2.8 3.1 2.4 3.0 3.3 3.6
    Lebanon 3.0 1.8 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.5
    Kuwait 1.2 -1.6 -1.3 1.3 1.6 2.4
    Libya -13.6 -24.0 -10.2 14.0 40.0 20.0
    Morocco 4.7 2.4 4.4 1.7 3.4 3.6
    Oman 3.9 2.9 3.3 1.6 1.9 2.6
    Qatarb 4.6 4.1 3.9 3.3 3.5 4.0
    Saudi Arabia 2.7 3.6 3.4 1.9 2.0 2.3
    Tunisia 2.4 2.3 0.8 1.8 2.5 3.0
    United Arab Emirates 4.3 4.6 3.4 2.0 2.4 3.0
    West Bank and Gaza 2.2 -0.2 3.5 3.3 3.5 3.6

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Syrian Arab Republic and Republic of Yemen due to data limitations.

    b. A recent rebasing of Qatar’s GDP from 2004 to 2013 prices has resulted in significant revisions to historical and forecast growth rates compared to January 2016.

  • South Asia

    Growth in South Asia is expected to reach 7.1 percent in 2016, and to strengthen to 7.3 percent by 2018, underpinned by robust domestic demand. In the near term, consumption spending continues to benefit from low oil prices and modest inflation rates, although these effects will wane in the medium term. An accommodative monetary stance, public investments in infrastructure, and progress on the structural reform agenda should support growth. Risks to the forecast are weighted to the downside. On the external front, volatility in financial markets could lead to large capital outflows from the most vulnerable emerging market economies in the region. Lower remittance inflows could dampen consumption spending and the growth outlook in the region’s smaller economies. Domestic risks include slower-than-expected progress in structural reform, vulnerabilities in bank and corporate balance sheets, and fiscal challenges.

    South Asia regional forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    South Asia, GDPa, b 6.1 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)c  
    South Asia, GDPc 6.1 6.8 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.3
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 4.7 5.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.0
            PPP GDP 6.1 6.8 7.1 7.1 7.2 7.3
        Private consumption 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.7 6.8 6.5
        Public consumption 1.6 9.7 9.6 6.6 6.5 6.6
        Fixed investment 3.9 4.7 7.2 7.1 8.1 8.8
        Exports, GNFSd 6.8 2.6 -2.9 2.7 5.9 7.5
        Imports, GNFSd -2.4 0.7 -1.8 1.6 5.0 6.3
        Net exports, contribution to growth 2.6 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0
    Memo items: GDPb                                                            
      13/14 14/15 15/16e 16/17f 17/18f 18/19f
        South Asia excluding India                                            4.9 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.4
            India 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7
            Pakistan (factor cost) 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1
            Bangladesh 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.8 6.0

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. Regional average includes emerging market and developing economies (EMDE), as defined in Annex 1 of the report. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    b. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries, while aggregates are presented in calendar year (CY) terms. The fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India. 2014 data for Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan cover FY2014/15.

    c. Sub-region aggregate excludes Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Maldives, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    d. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    South Asia economy forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Calendar year basis a            
    Afghanistan 2.0 1.3 1.5 1.9 2.9 3.6
    Bangladesh 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.4 6.0
    India 6.4 7.1 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7
    Maldives 4.7 6.5 1.9 3.5 3.9 4.6
    Nepal 4.9 4.4 1.7 2.7 4.5 4.4
    Sri Lanka 3.4 4.9 4.8 5.3 5.3 5.3
                 
    Fiscal year basis a 13/14 14/15 15/16e 16/17f 17/18f 18/19f
    Bangladesh 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.8 6.0
    Bhutan 3.9 5.8 6.7 6.8 8.0 8.0
    India 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7
    Nepal 3.8 6.0 2.7 0.6 4.7 4.4
    Pakistan (factor cost) 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. Historical data is reported on a market price basis. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries with the exception of Afghanistan, Maldives and Sri Lanka, which report in calendar year (CY).  The fiscal year runs from July 1 through  June 30 in Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India. 2014 fiscal year data, as reported in the table for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, cover FY2014/15. GDP figures presented in calendar years (CY) terms for Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan are calculated taking the average growth over the two fiscal year periods to provide an approximation of CY activity. Historical GDP data in CY terms for India are the sum of GDP in the four calendar quarters.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

    Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to slow again in 2016, to 2.5 percent, down from an estimated 3.0 percent in 2015. The forecast is 1.7 percentage points lower than the January 2016 projections. Low commodity prices, tightening global financial conditions, and drought in parts of the region will continue to weigh on growth this year. The recovery is expected to strengthen to an average of 4.1 percent in 2017-18, driven by a gradual improvement in the region’s largest economies and as commodity prices stabilize. Nonetheless, risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, including a sharper-than-expected slowdown in major trading partners, further decline in commodity prices, delays in adjusting to the negative terms-of-trade shocks, worsening drought conditions, and political and security uncertainties.

    Sub-Saharan Africa regional forecasts

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDPa 4.8 4.5 3.0 2.5 3.9 4.4
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDPb 4.7 4.5 3.0 2.5 3.9 4.3
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 2.0 1.8 0.3 -0.1 1.2 1.7
            PPP GDP 5.0 4.8 3.2 2.8 4.2 4.6
        Private consumptionc 9.9 3.4 2.8 2.5 3.6 3.9
        Public consumption 2.0 4.3 3.6 3.0 3.2 3.6
        Fixed investment 9.0 7.7 5.9 5.1 6.8 6.9
        Exports, GNFSd -2.5 4.7 1.5 1.8 2.3 2.8
        Imports, GNFSd 6.6 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5
        Net exports, contribution to growth -2.8 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3
    Memo items: GDP                                                      
        SSA excluding South Africa                                            5.7 5.6 3.5 3.2 4.8 5.1
              Oil exporterse 5.4 5.3 2.5 1.7 3.8 4.2
              CFA countriesf 4.6 5.6 4.0 5.3 5.3 5.7
              South Africa 2.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 1.1 2.0
              Nigeria 5.4 6.3 2.7 0.8 3.5 4.0
              Angola 6.8 3.9 2.8 0.9 3.1 3.4

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economy. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Somalia, Central African Republic, and São Tomé and Príncipe.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes Liberia, Somalia, Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe,and South Sudan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. The sudden surge in private consumption in the region in 2013 is driven by the revised and rebased NIA data of Nigeria in 2014.

    d. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    e. Includes Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, and Sudan.

    f. Includes Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Niger, Republic of Congo, Senegal, and Togo.

    Sub-Saharan Africa country forecastsa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
    Angola 6.8 3.9 2.8 0.9 3.1 3.4
    Benin 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.8 6.1
    Botswanab 9.3 4.4 -0.3 3.7 4.3 4.4
    Burkina Faso 6.7 4.0 4.0 5.2 5.5 6.0
    Burundi 4.6 4.7 -2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
    Cabo Verde 1.0 1.8 1.0 1.5 1.9 2.2
    Cameroon 5.6 5.9 6.2 6.0 6.1 6.2
    Chad 5.7 6.9 1.8 -0.4 1.6 5.2
    Comoros 3.5 3.0 2.3 2.4 3.0 3.1
    Congo, Dem. Rep. 8.5 9.0 7.7 6.3 7.7 8.5
    Congo, Rep. 3.4 6.5 2.6 3.8 3.2 3.0
    Côte d'Ivoire 9.2 9.0 8.4 8.5 8.0 8.1
    Equatorial Guinea -4.8 -3.1 -15.5 1.5 -1.0 -1.6
    Eritrea 1.3 1.7 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.3
    Ethiopiab 10.5 9.9 9.6 7.1 9.4 8.6
    Gabon 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.6
    Gambia, The 4.8 0.9 -2.5 -4.0 4.5 5.5
    Ghana 7.3 4.0 3.4 5.2 8.2 7.5
    Guinea 2.3 -0.3 0.1 4.0 5.0 6.0
    Guinea-Bissau 0.8 2.9 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.0
    Kenya 5.7 5.3 5.6 5.9 6.1 6.2
    Lesotho 4.6 2.0 2.7 2.6 3.7 4.0
    Liberia 8.7 0.7 0.3 3.8 5.3 5.6
    Madagascar 2.4 3.0 3.0 3.7 3.7 3.7
    Malawi 5.2 5.7 2.8 3.0 4.1 5.4
    Mali 1.7 7.2 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
    Mauritaniac 5.5 6.9 3.0 4.2 4.5 3.3
    Mauritius 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.0
    Mozambique 7.3 7.4 6.3 5.8 7.7 8.3
    Namibia 5.7 6.4 4.5 4.2 5.4 5.5
    Niger 4.6 6.9 4.2 5.4 6.3 7.0
    Nigeria 5.4 6.3 2.7 0.8 3.5 4.0
    Rwanda 4.7 7.0 7.1 6.8 7.2 7.1
    Senegal 3.6 4.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0
    Seychelles 6.6 2.8 4.3 3.7 3.6 3.6
    Sierra Leone 20.1 7.0 -21.5 6.5 5.3 5.4
    South Africa 2.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 1.1 2.0
    South Sudan 13.1 3.4 -6.3 3.5 6.9 7.4
    Sudan 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.8 4.0
    Swaziland 2.8 2.5 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.6
    Tanzania 7.3 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.1
    Togo 5.1 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.0 5.5
    Ugandab 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.0 5.9 6.8
    Zambia 6.7 4.9 3.6 3.4 4.2 5.0
    Zimbabwe 4.5 3.8 1.1 1.4 5.6 3.5

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Somalia.

    b. Fiscal-year based numbers.

    c. Data for Mauritania for 2013 and 2014 is provisional.

Two Topical Issues

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1. Recent Credit Surge in Historical Context

Benign financing conditions since the global financial crisis and, more recently, rising financing needs have fueled a rapid increase in credit to the nonfinancial private sector, especially to the corporate sector, in emerging market and developing economies. Credit growth has been most pronounced, and nearing the pace associated with past credit booms, in commodity exporting countries. In contrast, in commodity importers, credit-to-GDP ratios are elevated but have been stable or shrinking over the past few years. That said, credit to the priv... See More

Two Topical Issues

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2. Quantifying Uncertainties in Global Growth Forecasts

An assessment of forecast uncertainty and the balance of risks is critical to support effective policy making. This Special Focus presents the approach used in the Global Economic Prospects to quantify risks to baseline global growth forecasts in a fan chart, using information extracted from option pricing and survey-based data. Results indicate that forecast uncertainty has increased since January 2016 while the balance of risks to global growth forecasts has tilted further to the downside.

Forecasts

Global Outlook Summary: June 2016 Forecasts                           

Global growth for 2016 is projected at 2.4 percent, 0.5 percentage point below the January forecast, and unchanged from a disappointing 2015. Going forward, global growth is projected to pick up modestly, reaching 3.0 percent by 2018. The data in this table is reproduced from the June 2016 Global Economic Prospects report (PDF, 4MB).

  2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f 2018f
Real GDP1            
World 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.8 3.0
   Advanced Economies2 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.9
        United States 1.5 2.4 2.4 1.9 2.2 2.1
        Euro Area -0.3 0.9 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5
        Japan 1.4 -0.1 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
   Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDE) 4.7 4.2 3.4 3.5 4.4 4.7
           Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.2 2.1 0.2 0.4 2.4 3.1
           Other EMDE 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8
              Other EMDE excluding China 3.9 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0
      East Asia and Pacific 7.1 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1
           China 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3
           Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.3 5.5
           Thailand 2.7 0.8 2.8 2.5 2.6 3.0
      Europe and Central Asia 2.3 1.8 -0.1 1.2 2.5 2.8
           Russia 1.3 0.7 -3.7 -1.2 1.4 1.8
           Turkey 4.2 3.0 4.0 3.5 3.5 3.6
           Poland 1.3 3.3 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.5
      Latin America and the Caribbean 2.9 1.0 -0.7 -1.3 1.2 2.1
           Brazil 3.0 0.1 -3.8 -4.0 -0.2 0.8
           Mexico 1.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.8 3.0
           Argentina 2.9 0.5 2.1 -0.5 3.1 3.0
      Middle East and North Africa 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.9 3.5 3.6
           Saudi Arabia 2.7 3.6 3.4 1.9 2.0 2.3
           Iran, Islamic Rep. -1.9 4.3 1.6 4.4 4.9 4.7
           Egypt, Arab Rep.2 2.1 2.2 4.2 3.3 4.2 4.6
      South Asia 6.1 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3
           India2 6.6 7.2 7.6 7.6 7.7 7.7
           Pakistan2 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.1
           Bangladesh2 6.0 6.1 6.5 6.3 6.8 6.0
      Sub-Saharan Africa 4.8 4.5 3.0 2.5 3.9 4.4
           South Africa 2.2 1.5 1.3 0.6 1.1 2.0
           Nigeria 5.4 6.3 2.7 0.8 3.5 4.0
           Angola 6.8 3.9 2.8 0.9 3.1 3.4
Memorandum items:            
   Real GDP1            
      High-income Countries 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 1.9
      Developing Countries 5.3 4.9 4.3 4.4 4.9 5.1
         Low-income Countries 6.5 6.1 4.5 5.3 6.3 6.6
      BRICS 5.7 5.1 3.8 4.2 5.1 5.3
      World (2010 PPP weights) 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.6 3.7
   World trade volume3 3.3 3.8 3.1 3.1 3.9 4.2
   Commodity prices            
      Oil price4 -0.9 -7.5 -47.3 -25.7 32.5 6.5
      Non-energy commodity price index -7.2 -4.6 -15.0 -12.2 10.5 2.3
   Capital inflows to EMDE (percent of GDP)5 5.4 4.3 1.8 3.2 3.8 4.2

Source: World Bank. 

Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity; e = estimate; f = forecast. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time. Country classifications and lists of Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are presented in Annex Table 1.  BRICS include: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

1. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollars GDP weights.

2. GDP growth values are on a fiscal year basis. Aggregates that include these countries are calculated using data compiled on a calendar year basis.

3. World trade volume for goods and non-factor services.

4. Simple average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate.

5. Balance of payments data for net capital inflows of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and other investment (BPM6).

Create Chart

Create your own chart or custom dataset of World Bank GDP growth data. First, select a country grouping from the dropdown. Global growth ("World") is shown by default. Second, add additional country groupings or specific countries (maximum of 7). Third, click on "Export to Excel." This data is published in the Global Economic Prospects (PDF, 4.0MB) report.

Source: World Bank.

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