Image

Global Economic Prospects

A Fragile Recovery

Overview

Global Outlook

Global growth is projected to accelerate to 2.7 percent this year and further strengthen to 2.9 percent in 2018-19, in line with previous projections. However, the world economy continues to face a number of downside risks. They include increased protectionism, heightened policy uncertainty, the possibility of financial market turbulence, and, over the longer run, weaker potential growth. These risks highlight the urgency for policymakers in emerging market and developing economies to rebuild macroeconomic policy space and implement policies that support investment and trade.

Image
        
Image

 

Regional Outlooks

From a post-crisis low in 2016, growth is strengthening in Emerging and Developing Market Economies (EMDE). A recovery in commodity exporters is being led by some large economies where adjustment to the earlier decline in commodity prices is well advanced. However, some other economies still face longer-than-expected adjustment needs, suggesting that this recovery will be somewhat softer than previously envisioned. In commodity importers, growth is projected to remain solid, as stronger exports offset the impact of diminishing policy support. Despite an easing of short-term macroeconomic pressures in many EMDEs, the longer-term EMDE outlook is constrained by structural headwinds to world trade and slowing productivity growth. A close look at the economic outlook for each region follows.

  • Image

    East Asia and Pacific

    The East Asia and Pacific region is projected to grow at 6.2 percent in 2017, and at a slightly lower 6.1 percent on average in 2018-19, in line with previous forecasts. A gradual slowdown in China is offsetting a continued modest pickup in the rest of the region, led by a rebound in commodity exporters and a gradual recovery in Thailand. Growth in commodity importers excluding China is projected to remain robust, as stronger exports will offset the negative effects of eventual policy tightening on domestic demand. Downside risks are mainly external. They include heightened policy uncertainty and increased protectionism in key advanced economies, and the risk of an abrupt tightening of global financing conditions. A sharp slowdown in China is a low probability risk, but it would have major negative consequences for the region.
  • Image

    Europe and Central Asia

    Growth in Europe and Central Asia is forecast to accelerate broadly to 2.5 percent in 2017, and to 2.7 percent in 2018, supported by continued recovery among commodity exporters and unwinding of geopolitical risks and domestic policy uncertainty in major economies in the region. Russia is expected to grow at a 1.3 percent rate in 2017 after a two-year recession and by 1.4 percent in 2018, with growth helped by gains in consumption. Kazakhstan is projected to expand at a 2.4 percent rate this year and 2.6 percent in 2018 as strengthening oil prices and an accommodative macroeconomic policy stance support economic activity. Among commodity importing economies, Turkey is projected to expand by 3.5 percent in 2017, supported by accommodative fiscal policy, and by 3.9 percent in 2018 as uncertainty abates, tourism recovers, and corporate balance sheets mend.
  • Image

    Latin America and the Caribbean

    Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to strengthen to 0.8 percent in 2017 as Brazil and Argentina emerge from recession and rising commodity prices support agricultural and energy exporters. Brazil is forecast to expand 0.3 percent in 2017, with growth expected to pick up to a 1.8 percent rate 2018, while growth in Argentina is projected to expand at a 2.7 percent pace this year. Growth in Mexico is anticipated to moderate to 1.8 percent in 2017, principally due to contracting investment stemming from uncertainty about U.S. economic policy, before accelerating to 2.2 percent next year. A rising forecast for metal prices is expected to help Chile, where copper production should recover after a strike. Growth in Chile is forecast to accelerate modestly this year to a 1.8 percent pace and to 2 percent next year. In the Caribbean, rising tourism demand underlies an expected acceleration in growth to 3.3 percent in 2017 and 3.8 percent in 2018.
  • Image

    Middle East and North Africa

    Growth in the region is projected to fall to 2.1 percent in 2017 as the adverse impact of OPEC production cuts on oil exporters outweighs modestly improving conditions in oil importers. Growth is expected to pick up to 2.9 percent in 2018, assuming a moderation of geopolitical tensions and an increase in oil prices. Growth in Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the region, is anticipated to ease to 0.6 percent as a result of the production cuts, before accelerating to a 2 percent pace in 2018. The Islamic Republic of Iran is seen slowing to a 4 percent rate before accelerating modestly to a 4.1 percent pace in 2018 as limited spare capacity in oil production and difficulty in accessing finance weigh on the country’s growth. Egypt is forecast to moderate in the current fiscal year before steadily improving over the medium-term, supported by the implementation of business climate reforms and improved competitiveness.
  • Image

    South Asia

    Growth in South Asia region is forecast to pick up to 6.8 percent in 2017 and accelerate to 7.1 percent in 2018, reflecting an expansion of domestic demand and exports. Excluding India, regional growth is anticipated to hold steady at 5.7 percent, rising to 5.8 percent, with growth accelerating in Bhutan, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka but easing in Bangladesh and Nepal. India is expected to accelerate to 7.2 percent in fiscal 2017 (April 1, 2017 – March 31, 2018) and 7.5 percent in next fiscal year. Pakistan is expected to pick up to a 5.2 percent rate in fiscal 2017 (July 1, 2016 – June 30, 2017) and to 5.5 percent in the next fiscal year, reflecting an upturn in private investment, increased energy supply, and improved security. Sri Lanka’s growth is forecast to accelerate to a 4.7 percent rate in 2017 and 5 percent in 2018, as international financial institution programs support economic reforms and boost private sector competitiveness.
  • Image

    Sub-Saharan Africa

    Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to pick up to 2.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.2 percent in 2018, predicated on moderately rising commodity prices and reforms to tackle macroeconomic imbalances. However, per capita output is projected to shrink by 0.1 percent in 2017 and to increase to a modest 0.7 percent growth pace over 2018-19. At those rates, growth will be insufficient to achieve poverty reduction goals in the region, particularly if constraints to more vigorous growth persist. Growth in South Africa is projected to rise to 0.6 percent in 2017 and accelerate to 1.1 percent in 2018. Nigeria is forecast to go from recession to a 1.2 percent growth rate in 2017, gaining speed to 2.4 percent in 2018. Growth in non-resource- intensive countries is anticipated to remain solid, supported by infrastructure investment, resilient services sectors, and the recovery of agricultural production. Ethiopia is forecast to expand by 8.3 percent in 2017, Tanzania by 7.2 percent, Côte d’Ivoire by 6.8 percent, and Senegal by 6.7 percent.

Two Topical Issues

Image

Debt Dynamics in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Time to Act?

Since the global financial crisis, rising private sector debt and deteriorating government debt dynamics have made some emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) more vulnerable to financing shocks. Specifically, at end-2016, government debt exceeded its 2007 level by more than 10 percentage points of GDP in more than half of EMDEs and the fiscal balance worsened from its 2007 level by more than 5 percentage points of GDP in one-third of EMDEs. Although many EMDEs have strengthened their monetary policy frameworks and accumulated signifi... See More

Two Topical Issues

Image

Arm’s-Length Trade: A Source of Post-Crisis Trade Weakness

Trade growth has slowed sharply since the global financial crisis. Based on U.S. trade data, arm’s-length trade—trade between unaffiliated firms—accounts disproportionately for the overall post-crisis trade slowdown. This is partly because arm’s-length trade depends more heavily than intra-firm trade on sectors with rapid pre-crisis growth that boosted arm’s-length trade pre-crisis but that have languished post-crisis, and on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), where output growth has slowed sharply from elevated pre-crisis rates.... See More

Data

Global growth for 2017 is projected at 2.7 percent, unchanged from the January 2017 forecast, and 0.3 percentage points higher than the estimate for 2016. Going forward, global growth is projected to pick up modestly, reaching 2.9 percent by 2018. Download this data in PDF or Excel format. Charts can be generated by visiting the World Bank's DataBank website.

  • Image

    Global

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Real GDP1            
    World 2.8 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.9
       Advanced Economies 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.7
            United States 2.4 2.6 1.6 2.1 2.2 1.9
            Euro Area 1.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5
            Japan 0.3 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.6
       Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDE) 4.3 3.6 3.5 4.1 4.5 4.7
               Commodity-exporting EMDE 2.2 0.3 0.4 1.8 2.7 3.0
               Other EMDE 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.8
                  Other EMDE excluding China 4.5 5.0 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.1
          East Asia and Pacific 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1
               China 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3
               Indonesia 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4
               Thailand 0.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4
          Europe and Central Asia 2.3 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.8
               Russia 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
               Turkey 5.2 6.1 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1
               Poland 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.2
          Latin America and the Caribbean 0.9 -0.8 -1.4 0.8 2.1 2.5
               Brazil 0.5 -3.8 -3.6 0.3 1.8 2.1
               Mexico 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.5
               Argentina -2.5 2.6 -2.3 2.7 3.2 3.2
          Middle East and North Africa 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.1 2.9 3.1
               Saudi Arabia 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.6 2.0 2.1
               Iran, Islamic Rep. 4.3 -1.8 6.4 4.0 4.1 4.2
               Egypt, Arab Rep.2 2.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 4.6 5.3
          South Asia 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.3
               India3 7.2 7.9 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.7
               Pakistan2 4.0 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.8
               Bangladesh2 6.1 6.6 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.7
          Sub-Saharan Africa 4.6 3.1 1.3 2.6 3.2 3.5
               South Africa 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0
               Nigeria 6.3 2.7 -1.6 1.2 2.4 2.5
               Angola 4.8 3.0 0.0 1.2 0.9 1.5
    Memorandum items:            
       Real GDP1            
          High-income countries 1.9 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.7
          Developing countries 4.4 3.6 3.6 4.3 4.7 4.9
             Low-income countries 6.3 4.7 4.4 5.4 5.8 5.8
          BRICS 5.1 3.9 4.2 5.0 5.2 5.4
          World (2010 PPP weights) 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.7
       World trade volume4 4.1 2.7 2.5 4.0 3.8 3.8
       Commodity prices            
          Oil price5 -7.5 -47.3 -15.6 23.8 5.7 5.4
          Non-energy commodity price index -4.6 -15.0 -2.6 4.0 0.7 1.0

    Source: World Bank.

    Notes: PPP = purchasing power parity. World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other World Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time. Country classifications and lists of Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are presented in Table 1.2. BRICS include: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

    1. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollars GDP weights.

    2. GDP growth values are on a fiscal year basis. Aggregates that include these countries are calculated using data compiled on a calendar year basis. Pakistan's growth rates are based on GDP at factor cost.  The column labeled 2017 refers to FY2016/17.

    3. The column labeled 2016 refers to FY2016/17.

    4. World trade volume of goods and non-factor services.

    5. Simple average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas Intermediate.

  • Image

    East Asia and Pacific

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    East Asia and Pacific, GDPa 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b
    East Asia and Pacific, GDPb 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.6
            PPP GDP 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.1
        Private consumption 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1
        Public consumption 4.0 8.5 9.1 7.5 6.9 6.8
        Fixed investment 6.5 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.0 6.1
        Exports, GNFSc 7.6 0.9 2.2 3.3 3.6 4.1
        Imports, GNFSc 6.8 1.3 3.8 4.9 5.0 5.2
        Net exports, contribution to growth 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2
    Memo items: GDP            
        East Asia excluding China                                             4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3
        China 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3
        Indonesia 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4
        Thailand 0.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economy. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes American Samoa, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Fiji, Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Myanmar, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Timor-Leste, Tonga, and Tuvalu, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    GDP growtha 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Cambodia 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.7
    China 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3
    Fiji 5.6 3.6 2.0 3.7 3.5 3.3
    Indonesia 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4
    Lao PDR 7.5 7.4 7.0 7.0 6.8 7.2
    Malaysia 6.0 5.0 4.2 4.9 4.9 5.0
    Mongolia 6.9 2.2 1.0 -0.2 1.9 8.0
    Myanmar 8.0 7.3 6.5 6.9 7.2 7.3
    Papua New Guinea 7.4 6.8 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.4
    Philippines 6.1 6.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8
    Solomon Islands 2.0 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.0
    Thailand 0.9 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.4
    Timor-Lesteb 5.9 4.3 5.1 4.0 5.0 6.0
    Vietnam 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes American Samoa and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

    b. Non-oil GDP. Timor-Leste’s total GDP, including the oil economy, is roughly four times the non-oil economy, and highly volatile, sensitive to changes in global oil prices and local production levels.

  • Image

    Europe and Central Asia

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Europe and Central Asia, GDPa 2.3 1.0 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.8
    Europe and Central Asia, GDP excl. Russia 3.4 3.6 2.7 3.3 3.5 3.7
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b
    Europe and Central Asia, GDPb 2.3 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.8
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 1.9 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.5 2.6
            PPP GDP 2.2 0.7 1.5 2.5 2.7 2.8
        Private consumption 2.0 -2.5 -0.1 3.4 3.9 4.0
        Public consumption 0.9 0.0 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.1
        Fixed investment 2.3 0.4 0.4 3.8 4.2 4.3
        Exports, GNFSc 3.3 3.7 3.2 3.7 3.9 3.8
        Imports, GNFSc -0.5 -5.8 3.1 5.4 5.9 6.0
        Net exports, contribution to growth 1.3 3.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
    Memo items: GDP            
    Commodity exportersd 0.8 -2.4 0.2 1.7 1.9 2.0
    Commodity importerse 4.0 4.6 2.8 3.4 3.5 3.6
    Central Europef 3.0 3.7 3.1 3.5 3.3 3.2
    Western Balkansg 0.4 2.2 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.7
    Eastern Europeh -3.8 -7.7 0.8 1.4 2.6 3.2
    South Caucasusi 2.7 1.7 -2.1 0.1 1.6 2.2
    Central Asiaj 5.4 3.1 3.0 3.9 4.1 4.5
    Russian Federation 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
    Turkey 5.2 6.1 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1
    Poland 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.2

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained
    in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economy. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    d. Includes Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Kosovo, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.

    e. Includes Belarus; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Bulgaria; Croatia; Georgia; Hungary; Macedonia, FYR; Moldova; Montenegro; Poland; Romania; Serbia; and Turkey.

    f. Includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary,  Poland, and Romania.

    g. Includes Albania; Bosnia and Herzegovina; Kosovo; Macedonia, FYR;  Montenegro; and Serbia.

    h. Includes Belarus, Moldova, and Ukraine.

    i. Includes Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

    j. Includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

    GDP growtha 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Albania 1.8 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.8
    Armenia 3.6 3.0 0.2 2.7 3.1 3.4
    Azerbaijan 2.0 1.1 -3.8 -1.4 0.6 1.3
    Belarus 1.7 -3.9 -2.6 -0.4 0.5 1.2
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.1 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.0
    Bulgaria 1.3 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.2 3.3
    Croatia -0.4 1.6 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.6
    Georgia 4.6 2.9 2.7 3.5 4.0 4.5
    Hungary 4.0 3.1 2.0 3.7 3.7 3.0
    Kazakhstan 4.2 1.2 1.0 2.4 2.6 2.9
    Kosovo 1.2 4.1 3.6 3.9 4.2 4.4
    Kyrgyz Republic 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.4 4.0 4.8
    Macedonia, FYR 3.6 3.8 2.4 2.8 3.3 3.8
    Moldova 4.8 -0.5 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.5
    Montenegro 1.8 3.4 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.0
    Poland 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.2
    Romania 3.1 3.9 4.8 4.4 3.7 3.5
    Russian Federation 0.7 -2.8 -0.2 1.3 1.4 1.4
    Serbia -1.8 0.8 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.5
    Tajikistan 6.7 6.0 6.9 5.5 5.9 6.1
    Turkey 5.2 6.1 2.9 3.5 3.9 4.1
    Turkmenistan 10.3 6.5 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.5
    Ukraine -6.6 -9.8 2.3 2.0 3.5 4.0
    Uzbekistan 8.1 8.0 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

  • Image

    Latin America and the Caribbean

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Latin America and the Caribbean, GDPa 0.9 -0.8 -1.4 0.8 2.1 2.5
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b  
     Latin America and the Caribbean, GDPb 0.9 -0.8 -1.4 0.8 2.1 2.5
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) -0.2 -1.9 -2.5 -0.2 1.1 1.5
            PPP GDP 1.1 -0.2 -0.9 1.1 2.2 2.6
        Private consumption 1.5 -0.8 -1.2 0.8 2.1 2.7
        Public consumption 1.9 0.6 -0.3 0.5 0.9 0.9
        Fixed investment -2.0 -5.8 -6.4 -0.6 2.3 3.3
        Exports, GNFSc 1.5 4.5 1.2 4.2 3.2 3.2
        Imports, GNFSc -0.2 -1.2 -2.7 2.9 2.6 3.4
        Net exports, contribution to growth 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0
    Memo items: GDP            
        South Americad 0.3 -2.1 -2.9 0.3 1.9 2.3
        Mexico and Central Americae 2.5 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.7
        Caribbeanf 3.9 3.4 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.7
        Brazil 0.5 -3.8 -3.6 0.3 1.8 2.1
        Mexico 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.5
        Argentina -2.5 2.6 -2.3 2.7 3.2 3.2

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economy. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Cuba.

    b. Aggregate includes all countries in notes d, e, and f except Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Suriname, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    d. Includes Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, and República Bolivariana de Venezuela.

    e. Includes Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama.

    f. Includes Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago. 

    GDP growtha 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Argentina -2.5 2.6 -2.3 2.7 3.2 3.2
    Belize 4.1 1.0 -1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0
    Bolivia 5.5 4.9 4.3 3.7 3.7 3.4
    Brazil 0.5 -3.8 -3.6 0.3 1.8 2.1
    Chile 1.9 2.3 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.3
    Colombia 4.4 3.1 2.0 2.0 3.1 3.4
    Costa Rica 3.7 4.7 4.3 3.8 3.6 3.5
    Dominica 3.9 2.2 0.6 3.0 2.1 2.1
    Dominican Republic 7.6 7.0 6.6 5.3 5.0 4.8
    Ecuador 4.0 0.2 -1.5 -1.3 -0.4 0.3
    El Salvador 1.4 2.3 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.7
    Guatemala 4.2 4.1 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.6
    Guyana 3.8 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7
    Haitib 2.8 1.2 1.4 0.5 1.7 2.3
    Honduras 3.1 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3
    Jamaica 0.7 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.1 2.3
    Mexico 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.5
    Nicaragua 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.2
    Panama 6.1 5.8 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.8
    Paraguay 4.7 3.0 4.1 3.6 3.8 3.8
    Peru 2.4 3.3 3.9 2.8 3.8 3.6
    St. Lucia 0.5 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7
    St. Vincent and the Grenadines -0.5 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.8 2.9
    Suriname 0.4 -2.7 -10.4 0.9 2.2 1.2
    Trinidad and Tobago -0.6 -0.6 -5.1 0.3 3.4 3.3
    Uruguay 3.2 0.4 1.5 1.6 2.4 3.4
    Venezuela, RB -3.9 -8.2 -12.0 -7.7 -1.2 0.7

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    b. GDP is based on fiscal year, which runs from October to September of next year.

  • Image

    Middle East and North Africa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Middle East and North Africa, GDPa 3.4 2.8 3.2 2.1 2.9 3.1
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b  
    Middle East and North Africa, GDPb 3.4 2.7 3.1 2.2 2.9 3.2
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 1.4 0.8 1.3 0.6 1.4 1.8
            PPP GDP 3.5 2.6 3.3 2.4 3.0 3.3
        Private consumption 6.4 1.5 2.6 2.3 3.0 3.2
        Public consumption 6.9 1.7 -1.0 1.0 1.6 1.6
        Fixed investment 5.8 3.3 0.1 2.9 4.6 5.6
        Exports, GNFSc 2.3 1.9 5.8 2.3 3.7 3.9
        Imports, GNFSc 7.0 0.0 2.1 3.0 3.0 3.4
        Net exports, contribution to growth -1.7 0.9 1.9 0.0 0.6 0.5
    Memo items: GDP            
     Oil exportersd 3.4 2.6 3.2 1.8 2.5 2.8
       GCC countriese 3.2 3.8 1.9 1.3 2.3 2.5
       Saudi Arabia 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.6 2.0 2.1
       Iran, Islamic Rep. 4.3 -1.8 6.4 4.0 4.1 4.2
     Oil importersf 3.0 3.7 2.8 3.7 4.1 4.4
       Egypt, Arab Rep. 3.7 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.3
         Fiscal year basisg 2.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 4.6 5.3

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economy. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Libya, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen due to data limitations.

    b. Aggregate includes all countries in notes d and f except Djibouti, Iraq, Qatar, and West Bank and Gaza, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    d. Oil exporters include Algeria, Bahrain, Iraq, the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    e. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) includes Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

    f. Oil importers include Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and West Bank and Gaza.

    g. The fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30 in Egypt; the column labeled 2016 reflects the fiscal year ended June 30, 2016.

      

      

    GDP growtha 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Algeria 3.8 3.8 3.5 1.8 1.0 1.5
    Bahrain 4.4 2.9 3.0 1.9 1.9 2.3
    Djibouti 6.0 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.0 7.2
    Egypt, Arab Rep. 3.7 4.4 4.1 4.3 5.0 5.3
      Fiscal year basisb 2.9 4.4 4.3 3.9 4.6 5.3
    Iran, Islamic Rep. 4.3 -1.8 6.4 4.0 4.1 4.2
    Iraq 0.7 4.8 10.1 -3.1 2.6 1.1
    Jordan 3.1 2.4 2.0 2.3 2.6 3.0
    Kuwait 0.5 1.8 2.9 0.2 2.7 2.9
    Lebanon 1.8 1.3 1.8 2.5 2.6 2.6
    Morocco 2.6 4.5 1.1 3.8 3.7 3.6
    Oman 2.5 5.7 2.2 0.9 2.4 2.9
    Qatar 4.0 3.6 2.2 3.2 2.6 2.5
    Saudi Arabia 3.7 4.1 1.4 0.6 2.0 2.1
    Tunisia 2.3 1.1 1.0 2.3 3.0 3.5
    United Arab Emirates 3.1 3.8 2.3 2.0 2.5 3.2
    West Bank and Gaza -0.2 3.4 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.4

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of economies’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Libya, Syria, and Republic of Yemen due to data limitations.

    b. The fiscal year runs from July 1 to June 30 in Egypt; the column labeled 2016 reflects the fiscal year ended June 30, 2016.

  • Image

    South Asia

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    South Asia, GDPa, b 6.7 6.9 6.7 6.8 7.1 7.3
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)c  
    South Asia, GDPc 6.7 6.9 6.8      6.8      7.1      7.3
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 5.3 5.6 5.4      5.5      5.8      6.0
            PPP GDP 6.7 6.9 6.7      6.8      7.1      7.3
        Private consumption 6.2 6.5 6.6      6.7      6.9      7.1
        Public consumption 8.9 2.6 5.5      5.8      5.8      5.8
        Fixed investment 2.7 6.3 4.6      5.9      7.3      8.0
        Exports, GNFSd 5.4 -4.9 3.0      6.0      6.3      6.2
        Imports, GNFSd 1.1 -1.0 0.3      4.4      5.9      6.3
        Net exports, contribution to growth 1.0 -0.9 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.3
    Memo items: GDPb 14/15 15/16 16/17e 17/18f 18/19f 19/20f
        South Asia excluding India                                            5.3 5.5 5.8      5.7      5.8      6.0
            India 7.2 7.9 6.8      7.2      7.5      7.7
            Pakistan (factor cost) 4.0 4.7 5.2      5.5      5.8      5.8
            Bangladesh 6.6 7.1 6.8      6.4      6.7      7.0

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economy. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars.

    b. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries, while aggregates are presented in calendar year (CY) terms. The fiscal year runs from July 1 through June 30 in Bangladesh and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India.

    c. Sub-region aggregate excludes Afghanistan, Bhutan, and Maldives, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    d. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    GDP growth 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Calendar year basis a            
    Afghanistan 1.3 1.1 2.2 2.6 3.4 3.1
    Bhutan 5.7 6.5 6.8 6.8 7.7 10.5
    Maldives 6.0 2.8 4.1 4.5 4.6 4.6
    Sri Lanka 5.0 4.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.1
    Fiscal year basis a 14/15 15/16 16/17e 17/18f 18/19f 19/20f
    Bangladesh 6.6 7.1 6.8 6.4 6.7 7.0
    India 7.2 7.9 6.8 7.2 7.5 7.7
    Nepal 3.3 0.4 7.5 5.5 4.5 4.5
    Pakistan (factor cost) 4.0 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.8

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. Historical data are reported on a market price basis. National income and product account data refer to fiscal years (FY) for the South Asian countries with the exception of Afghanistan, Bhutan, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, which report in calendar year (CY).  The fiscal year runs from July 1 through  June 30 in Bangladesh and Pakistan, from July 16 through July 15 in Nepal, and April 1 through March 31 in India.

  • Image

    Sub-Saharan Africa

    (Real GDP growth at market prices in percent, unless indicated otherwise)
      2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDPa 4.6 3.1 1.3 2.6 3.2 3.5
    (Average including countries with full national accounts and balance of payments data only)b
    Sub-Saharan Africa, GDPb 4.6 3.1 1.3 2.6 3.2 3.5
            GDP per capita (U.S. dollars) 1.9 0.4 -1.3 -0.1 0.6 0.9
            PPP GDP 4.9 3.3 1.6 2.8 3.5 3.7
        Private consumption 2.9 5.7 1.2 2.2 2.6 2.8
        Public consumption 1.6 -3.3 2.0 2.5 2.7 2.8
        Fixed investment 9.6 0.7 3.4 5.1 7.0 7.2
        Exports, GNFSc 7.0 2.4 1.1 2.7 3.0 3.3
        Imports, GNFSc 3.7 0.5 1.9 2.9 3.5 3.7
        Net exports, contribution to growth 0.9 0.6 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
    Memo items: GDP            
    SSA ex. South Africa and Nigeria                                            5.3 4.3 3.5 4.3 4.7 4.8
    SSA ex. South Africa, Nigeria, and Angola                                           5.4 4.5 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.2
          Oil exportersd 5.4 2.9 -0.4 1.7 2.6 2.7
          CFA countriese 5.5 4.0 2.8 3.6 4.1 4.3
          South Africa 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0
          Nigeria 6.3 2.7 -1.6 1.2 2.4 2.5
          Angola 4.8 3.0 0.0 1.2 0.9 1.5

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained
    in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not differ at any given moment in time.

    a. EMDE refers to emerging market and developing economies. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan.

    b. Sub-region aggregate excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia,  and South Sudan, for which data limitations prevent the forecasting of GDP components.

    c. Exports and imports of goods and non-factor services (GNFS).

    d. Includes Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, and Sudan.

    e. Includes Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Niger, Republic of Congo, Senegal, and Togo.

    GDP growtha 2014 2015 2016e 2917f 2018f 2019f
    Angola 4.8 3.0 0.0 1.2 0.9 1.5
    Benin 6.4 2.1 4.0 5.5 6.0 6.3
    Botswanab 4.1 -1.7 2.9 4.0 4.2 4.3
    Burkina Faso 4.0 4.0 5.4 6.1 6.3 6.3
    Burundi 4.7 -3.9 -0.6 1.5 2.0 2.6
    Cabo Verde 0.6 1.5 3.9 3.3 3.7 3.7
    Cameroon 5.9 5.8 4.5 3.9 4.4 4.6
    Chad 6.9 1.8 -7.0 0.2 3.2 3.1
    Comoros 2.1 1.0 2.2 3.3 4.0 4.0
    Congo, Dem. Rep. 9.0 6.9 2.2 4.7 4.9 4.9
    Congo, Rep. 6.8 2.6 -2.1 1.0 1.5 1.5
    Côte d'Ivoire 8.5 9.2 7.8 6.8 6.5 6.3
    Equatorial Guinea -0.7 -8.3 -7.3 -5.9 -7.0 -6.0
    Ethiopiab 10.3 9.6 7.5 8.3 8.0 7.9
    Gabon 4.3 4.0 2.3 1.3 2.4 2.9
    Gambia, The 0.9 4.1 2.1 2.5 3.8 4.0
    Ghana 4.0 3.9 3.6 6.1 7.8 6.2
    Guinea 0.4 0.1 4.6 4.4 4.6 4.6
    Guinea-Bissau 2.5 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1
    Kenya 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.5 5.8 6.1
    Lesotho 4.5 1.6 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.6
    Liberia 0.7 0.0 -1.2 3.0 5.3 5.7
    Madagascar 3.3 3.8 4.4 3.5 6.4 4.7
    Malawi 5.7 2.8 2.5 4.4 4.9 5.3
    Mali 7.0 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1
    Mauritaniac 5.6 1.4 2.0 3.5 2.7 4.6
    Mauritius 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.3
    Mozambique 7.4 6.6 3.3 4.8 6.1 6.7
    Namibia 6.5 5.3 1.2 3.0 4.0 4.2
    Niger 7.0 3.6 4.7 5.2 5.5 5.5
    Nigeria 6.3 2.7 -1.6 1.2 2.4 2.5
    Rwanda 7.0 6.9 5.9 6.0 6.8 7.0
    Senegal 4.3 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0
    Seychelles 3.3 3.5 4.4 4.2 3.8 3.5
    Sierra Leone 4.6 -20.6 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.9
    South Africa 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0
    Sudan 2.7 4.9 4.7 4.1 3.9 3.9
    Swaziland 2.7 1.9 -0.6 1.7 3.1 3.2
    Tanzania 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.2 7.2 7.4
    Togo 5.9 5.4 5.0 4.6 5.5 5.5
    Ugandab 5.6 5.6 4.8 4.6 5.2 5.6
    Zambia 5.0 2.9 3.3 4.1 4.5 4.7
    Zimbabwe 3.8 0.5 0.7 2.3 1.8 1.7

    Source: World Bank.

    World Bank forecasts are frequently updated based on new information and changing (global) circumstances. Consequently, projections presented here may differ from those contained in other Bank documents, even if basic assessments of countries’ prospects do not significantly differ at any given moment in time.

    a. GDP at market prices and expenditure components are measured in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. Excludes Central African Republic, São Tomé and Príncipe, Somalia, and South Sudan.

    b. Fiscal-year based numbers.

Connect With Us

Connect Us

Global Economic Prospects

1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20433 USA

Questions ? Send us an email

 

Back to Top