Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan Economic Update — April 2026

Number of ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz is of particular consequence for the global economy and the region. Since hostilities began, several oil tankers have been struck and damaged near the strait, bringing maritime traffic to a near-standstill. Between March 2 and March 22, an average of just five ships per day crossed the strait, compared to 96 over the same period a year prior—a 95 percent decline.

_{Source: International Monetary Fund, Portwatch, https://portwatch.imf.org/. Data accessed on March 27, 2026.
Note: The orange line indicates the 7-day moving average of ships transits, overlaid against the raw daily totals (light blue) and the prior year’s 7-day moving average (dark blue) to account for baseline seasonality}

Iceberg Model of Industrial Policies

Industrial policy is often understood differently by economists and policymakers. A useful way to think about this distinction is through the image of an iceberg. Above the waterline are the problems policymakers observe directly: high unemployment, insufficient private-sector dynamism, overreliance on hydrocarbons, or gaps between workforce skills and firms’ needs. Below the surface lie the underlying causes.

_{Source: AI-created figure for this publication. Claude Sonnet 3.5 was prompted on January 23, 2026, to generate a sketch of an iceberg, label the three parts of the iceberg as indicated in the figure, insert the examples provided in each part, and color the parts accordingly.}

Indexed cumulative count of country's trade measured by income groups (averages)

Over the past decade, the number of newly announced industrial policies in the MENAAP region has tripled. According to the Global Trade Alert (GTA) database, since 2016, the average number of new industrial policy measures has increased across income groups worldwide, but the rise has been especially pronounced among high-income and middle-income MENAAP countries relative to their income peers.

_{Source: Global Trade Alert (GTA) data set.
Note: MENAAP countries include Afghanistan; Algeria; Bahrain; Djibouti; Egypt, Arab Rep.; Iran, Islamic Rep.; Iraq; Jordan; Kuwait; Lebanon; Libya; Morocco; Oman; Pakistan; Qatar; Saudi Arabia; Syrian Arab Republic; Tunisia; the United Arab Emirates; the West Bank and Gaza; and Yemen, Rep. Time series in the panels represent the unweighted average of country-level indices for MENAAP and non-MENAAP country groups, where the cumulative count of active trade measures in 2016 is indexed to 1. Active measures are those implemented and not yet removed during the given year. When no removal date is provided, a trade measure is counted as active if its status in the GTA data set is indicated as “in force.” Trade measures without implementation date are not considered. Countries with zero active measures in the base year (2016) are excluded from the sample.}

Association between the establishment of SEZs and the growth in nighttime lights

Evidence suggests that special economic zones (SEZs) are linked to higher economic activity in nearby areas, as measured by growth in nighttime lights (figure B2.1.1). The analysis covers 132 SEZs in MENAAP countries and 1,821 SEZs in 22 other countries from a sample created by the European Bank for  Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) for which the year of establishment—or, if unavailable, the year of announcement—is known.

_{Source: World Bank.
Note: Lines trace how South Asia’s growth forecasts for 2024–26 have changed across different issues of the South Asia Development Update between 2023 and 2025.}