Belize

Belize, a small, upper-middle-income country of roughly 415,000 people, is advancing reforms to strengthen fiscal sustainability, create jobs, and build resilience to climate and external shocks. With an economy heavily reliant on tourism, agriculture, and remittances—and closely tied to the United States—Belize remains vulnerable to global economic shifts and natural hazards.

The World Bank Group’s 2026-2035 Country Partnership Framework for Belize is supporting the country’s efforts to promote inclusive growth by enhancing public sector resilience, advancing the blue economy, and expanding education and employment opportunities for underserved populations.

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Belize’s economic growth slowed to an estimated 2.6 percent in 2025 but, early indicators point to a strong start in 2026. Inflation decreased to 1.1 percent in 2025 but rose to 4.6 percent year-on-year in June, 2026, driven mainly by higher food and fuel prices. Public debt, down from 103 percent in 2020, temporarily increased to 69.9 percent of GDP in 2025, up from 68.2 percent in 2024 - due to the acquisition of three hydroelectric plants.

Despite progress, Belize faces structural challenges. The economy remains highly vulnerable to external shocks. As a net energy importer operating under a U.S. dollar peg, Belize is exposed to global fuel price fluctuations. Private investment and business development remains constrained due to persistent regulatory and institutional bottlenecks.

In 2025, 15.8 percent of the population lived on less than US$8.30 a day (2021 PPP), the upper-middle income country poverty line. Labor market conditions have been improving with unemployment falling to a record low of 1.9 percent in April 2026. However, labor force participation, particularly among women, declined to 53.9 percent in April 2026 from 59.1 percent a year earlier.

Looking ahead, GDP growth is projected at 2.4 percent in 2026 as energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty weigh on exports and investments, despite a strong start to the year. Inflation is projected to rise to 3.5 percent in 2026, driven by higher food and energy prices, before easing to 2.0 percent in 2027 and 1.3 percent in 2028. Risks remain, including higher global energy prices, a slowdown in the United States and El Niño-induced droughts while, on the upside, stronger tourism and a faster agricultural recovery could support stronger-than-expected growth.

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The World Bank Group’s program in Belize encompasses approximately US$142 million in investments, spanning lending, advisory services, and analytics.

The program supports several key priorities:

• Enhancing fiscal resilience and debt management, leveraging Belize’s access to concessional financing through the International Development Association (IDA). This enables longer-term, low-interest loans that are critical for sustainable development and fiscal stability.
• Promoting resilience and disaster preparedness, addressing Belize’s vulnerability as one of the most disaster-prone countries in the world, where natural disasters cost nearly 4 percent of GDP annually. Key initiatives include the Blue Cities and Beyond Project, which strengthens coastal and marine ecosystem management, increases safe water supply and reduces land-based pollution discharges; and the Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO), which provides rapid liquidity in case of emergencies.

Boosting economic growth and job creation through investments in tourism, renewable energy, agriculture, and education. IDA financing supports Belize’s goal of achieving 5 percent annual growth and creating 50,000 jobs by 2028, with a focus on increasing female employment and improving early childhood education.

The Reliant and Resilient Energy Systems Project aims to strengthen the reliability and resilience of the national electricity system and enable greater renewable energy integration. IFC’s Scaling Solar Program promotes private investment in renewable energy, while MIGA’s guarantees facilitate foreign direct investment.

The Climate Resilient and Sustainable Agriculture project aims to increase agricultural productivity and the adoption of climate-smart agricultural approaches among project beneficiaries.

Strengthening public financial management and governance to improve service delivery and foster a more enabling business environment that attracts private investment and promotes economic inclusion.

Facilitating global partnerships and knowledge exchange, with World Bank technical assistance helping Belize build capacity in climate adaptation, disaster risk management, and fiscal policy.

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The World Bank Group’s 2026-2035 Country Partnership Framework outlines a strategic approach to supporting Belize’s development goals. Informed by consultations with government, civil society, the private sector, and development partners, the strategy is also closely aligned to the country’s priorities.

The strategy adopts a One World Bank Group approach, combining financial support, technical assistance, and knowledge work from the World Bank, IFC, and MIGA. It is anchored in the WBG's Small States Strategy and responds to Belize's economic context.

The Framework is organized around three core priorities:

• Fiscal Resilience and Debt Management: The framework leverages Belize's access to IDA concessional financing to support long-term fiscal sustainability. This includes strengthening debt management and public financial management to reduce vulnerability to economic downturns.
• Climate Resilience and Disaster Preparedness: Given Belize's high exposure to hurricanes and other hazards, resilience is integrated as a cross-cutting theme across all interventions. This builds on the existing portfolio in agriculture, energy, and urban resilience.
• Economic Growth, Jobs, and Human Capital: This is a central pillar aimed at diversifying the economy and expanding opportunities for underserved populations. Key targets include supporting 5 percent annual growth and the creation of 50,000 new jobs over five years, with a specific focus on female employment, early childhood development, and skills development to address labor market gaps.

The Framework prioritizes investments in renewable energy, sustainable agriculture, the blue economy, education, and tourism — sectors where World Bank Group engagement can catalyze both public and private investment. It is selective and focused, reflecting the realities of a small state. It emphasizes non-lending instruments alongside financing — analytical work, advisory services, and trust funds.

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