Российская Федерация

Russia's economy grew 3.4 percent in 2012, down from 4.3 percent in 2011. The economy of Russia slowed in the second half of the year due to weak net exports, negat... Развернуть + ive base effects, and destocking at the end of the year. More than four years after the global financial crisis hit, the world economy remains sluggish. Industrial production lost momentum throughout last year, exports expanded only at a moderate pace, and imports even declined for three month during autumn 2012. Growth declined mainly due to weaker performance of investment. Inventories were flat as the restocking cycle after the crisis came to an end, and fixed investment expanded only moderately as business remained cautious about future prospects. The weaker performance of the tradable sectors reflects sluggish global demand and the poor agricultural harvest but also low competitiveness in parts of the industry, as growth declined for all three subsectors. The capital account strengthened in 2012 as net capital outflows decreased. According to preliminary estimates, the capital account deficit amounted to US$40.9 billion or 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012, compared to US$76.2 billion or 4 percent of GDP in 2011. The labor market remains tight. The unemployment rate declined across the country, and vacancy and replacement rates increased. The number of poor people in Russia reached a record low. In the first nine months of 2012, some 17.2 million of people were below the poverty line, three million less than a year ago and the lowest number in the last two decades. The weak external environment, high inflation, flat oil prices and sluggish domestic demand are set to postpone a pickup in growth towards the second half of 2013. Nevertheless, modest growth and lower inflation are projected to reduce poverty further. Скрыть -

Early in the year, as the global economy was slowing and the euro area entered a recession, Russia's economy held steady. But now, as 2012 is entering its final qua... Развернуть + rter, growth is slowing. Just at a time when Russia's output levels have exceeded the pre-crisis peak, the economy is settling onto a lower trajectory, even though oil prices have stayed high. But let us start with the strong points. The economy had a good first half of the year. While growth was stalling in Europe and slowing in other emerging economies, it remained steady in Russia. Key economic indicators were near or at record levels: the current account surplus stayed high and the Central Bank of Russia added to its reserves, helping to bolster market confidence. Capital outflows, long regarded as one of the soft spots of Russia's economy, declined in the second and third quarters of 2012 from the peaks in the previous two quarters. Whereas many countries in Europe are struggling with large public debt and high fiscal deficits, Russia's federal government public debt is close to single digit and the fiscal balance is in surplus. Inflation and unemployment rates declined to their lowest level in two decades. As people's purchasing power improved and more people had jobs, fewer people were in poverty than at any time since the beginning of the economic transition. A challenging external environment and worsening sentiments among businesses and consumers translate into weak growth prospects. Excluding the crisis years of 1998 and 2009, growth in 2012 is set to decline to its lowest rate in a decade and a half. And 2013 is unlikely to look much better. The weak outlook means that strong, three-pronged policy action is essential to reinvigorate the economy. First, economic policies have to ensure stability. The recent tightening in monetary policy was an important step in this direction. Second, Russia has to build buffers against the external volatility. This means replenishing the reserve fund, moving towards inflation targeting and strengthening banking supervision. Finally, the government has to lift the growth potential of the economy. This means raising productivity and competitiveness, diversifying the economy, and improving transport connectivity, as discussed in the last section of this report, in line with its longer-term economic policy goals. Making headway on this agenda will enable Russia to lift growth above 4 percent and more. Скрыть -

This synthesis report presents the findings from the six Early Childhood Care and Education, or ECCE regional policy reviews and summarizes research on selected qua... Развернуть + lity issues raised in the regional reports. It comprises four chapters, the final of which presents conclusions and recommendations from the authors for the consideration of federal, regional and municipal authorities in Russian Federation. The introduction provides the institutional context and objectives of a regional policy review on the Quality of Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) in the Russian Federation started by the UNESCO Moscow Office and the World Bank Russia in 2008. The first chapter on the social and operational context sets out the general social challenges that face early childhood care and education services in the Russian Federation. The chapter two reviews critical quality challenges for ECCE in the Russian Regions, namely: governance, resources and financing; service availability and access issues; and factors affecting program quality. The third chapter summarizes and reviews, from the perspective of the regions, the issues that the regions believe are important and for which, they would welcome help from the relevant authorities. Their concerns are grouped into four topic areas: (i) issues needing assistance from the federal level; (ii) issues to be solved at regional level; (iii) non?access issues that were raised by the regions; and (iv) plans to improve the quality of ECCE in the regions. The final fourth chapter presents conclusions and recommendations from the authors. Скрыть -

This set of lectures is structured in accordance with the aforementioned objectives. It is divided into four parts. Part one examines the theoretical-methodological... Развернуть + issues of development studies that remain largely a terra incognita for the Russian audience. The authors deliberately differentiated between two terms, ‘development’ and ‘international development assistance’. The most voluminous Part two examines the key issues pertaining to aid architecture. In the beginning the authors reconstruct the terminological and institutional-legal system in which international development assistance is provided currently, classify the main criteria, forms, and modalities of aid, as well as identify key international development actors. The first introductory lecture is followed by a description of the latest trends in composition and distribution of aid flows with breakdowns by donor group, aid modality, region, country, income group, and sector. There is an analysis of those trends which hinder progress in increasing aid effectiveness. The authors develop the idea that international development assistance is a form of cooperation in which both donors and recipients (regardless of the differences in their motivation, interests, goals, and strategies) are engaged as partners. However, it is still the donors that drive the agenda. That is why most of attention in part two is paid to donors, both established and emerging ones. An analysis is provided of commonalities and particularities of donor national strategies of participation in international development cooperation. Part three is entirely devoted to the practical aspects of providing assistance, management, financing, monitoring and evaluation of aid programs. This section explores a wide range of issues, such as specifics of aid management systems, planning expenditures for bilateral and multilateral aid programs, advantages and shortcomings of various aid modalities and channels of aid delivery, as well as the project-based and program-based approaches. The last part, part four, sheds light on the provision of development assistance in specific spheres, such as support for production growth (including aid for trade), infrastructure (transport, energy, information and communications technologies), social services (education, health, water supply, and sanitation), and environment. Скрыть -

Through the Millennium Development Goals (MDG's), the international community made a global commitment to help ensure that, by 2015, every country achieves the goal... Развернуть + of universal primary education. Ultimately, this goal seeks to empower an entire generation of young people with the benefits provided by a primary school education. Russia Education Aid for Development's (READ's) goal to improve learning outcomes, through the use of learning assessment results, directly aligns with the World Bank's education sector strategy's emphasis on 'learning for all.' READ has been commended for its systems approach to helping countries build the right systems and institutions to measure what matters most in any education system student learning-and to use the results of such measures to boost learning for all. The READ program is seen as a leader in this critical area of work. This report demonstrates a year of significant progress for the READ program. The conceptual framework and tools for student assessment systems piloted during the first few years of the program are being rolled out on a large scale and used by countries across the globe. Almost all READ countries have now finalized their action plans and have begun implementing their initial set of activities. The year ahead will surely be one of intense activity across the program. READ supports analytical work and technical assistance to help countries through: 1) establish systems or institutions-or strengthen existing ones-that formulate learning goals and carry out assessments of student learning; 2) improve existing or develop new instruments to measure student learning outcomes; and 3) strengthen existing or develop new mechanisms (policies) to use learning outcomes data to improve teaching and learning. Скрыть -

Public opinion research of the Russian population attitudes towards Official Development Assistance(ODA) was undertaken in 2010 as part of the DFID supported WB Rus... Развернуть + sia as a Donor Initiative (RDI) program assisting Russian Government in its development aid efforts. The research was conducted by Levada-Center, an independent polling and sociological company, using qualitative (in-depth interviews with opinion leaders) and quantitative (nationally representative survey) methodology. Volumes 1 and 2 report respectively on the findings of the qualitative and quantitative surveys. The qualitative survey included 25 opinion leaders interviews (public officials, NGOs, academia, business community, and the media), conducted in the cities of Moscow, St. Petersburg, Krasnoyarsk, and Rostov. The interviews covered economic situation in Russia; Russia's global role; potential recipient countries of Russian ODA and types of assistance; and overall awareness of Russian ODA activities. The opinion leaders share a common feeling that Russia is a "rich country with poor people" that still should take increasingly active role in development aid, being an influential "world power". Opinion leaders believe that Russian ODA should focus on: (i) countries affected by natural disasters; (ii) neighboring former Soviet bloc countries that have traditionally been "a zone of Russia's historic responsibility"; and (iii) countries posing global security threats. "Giving a fishing rod, not fish" was indicated as a preferred approach to development aid. Joint ODA programs with the World Bank and other multilateral organizations were supported as a tool to strengthen Russia's donor role, learn international practices, and reduce corruption risks. Most of the interviewees had little knowledge of the Russian ODA, but they thought it was matching the national interests, and were interested to learn more on ODA. A need to inform the general public about Russia's donor role was highlighted. The nationwide survey included 1503 respondents from 96 cities and 35 rural settlements located in 44 regions of Russia. The sample was nationally representative of the Russian adult population (aged 18 years and older). The survey showed that 3/4 of the population approve Russia's development aid to the poorest countries with preferred areas of Russia support being countries affected by natural disasters (64 percent support) and poor CIS countries (22 percent). Potential assistance could be provided in a form of sending Russian specialists to work in developing countries (58 percent); educating their students in Russia (51 percent); and supplying food and equipment at subsidized prices (30 percent). Medical care, access to basic education, and developing industrial facilities and infrastructure are seen as the areas of most effective assistance. Russia ODA collaboration with multilateral organizations is also seen favourably. Motivation of Russia ODA in the views of the respondents included: (i) shared moral responsibility for reduction of extreme poverty in developing countries; (ii) expansion of the circle of countries friendly to Russia; (iii) reduction the threat of terrorism and drug traffic between Russia and neighboring countries; and (iv) increase of Russia's influence and prestige in the world. Скрыть -

Russia has seen even higher oil windfall in the past few months, which translates into likely fiscal surpluses this year and next. The government should not miss th... Развернуть + e opportunity provided by a large oil windfall to substantially improve its long-term fiscal position, further reduce inflation, and, therefore, ensure a strong basis for durable stability and healthy growth in the future. Rising domestic demand and credit activity are increasingly supporting solid growth. Overall, labor market conditions improved recently while poverty was broadly flat during and after the crisis, but unemployment and poverty in many regions remain difficult. Further reductions in poverty will require greater policy focus and persistence in implementing more effective and targeted programs, especially in the poorest regions. Two new special-topic analyses focus on export diversification in Russia, and food and energy inflation in Europe and Central Asia region. In the first, results show that productivity is the key to exports and that lack of competition and entrepreneurial innovation are relevant obstacles to the emergence of new, potentially exportable products. In the second, it is shown that food and energy prices in Russia and other countries in Europe and Central Asia are contributing significantly to consumer price inflation, complicating anti-inflation policy and poverty reduction. Скрыть -

Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4... Развернуть + .4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis. Скрыть -

Russian leaders have shown a strong political will to support the development of renewable energy by adopting a target of 4.5 percent of all electricity generation ... Развернуть + and consumption from renewable sources by 2020. This green paper is intended to contribute to the ongoing debate on renewable energy policy in Russia. It provides information about policy developments for potential investors and other stakeholders. It considers the following questions: (i) why should Russia support investment in renewable energy?; (ii) should it do so urgently?; and (iii) how might these investments be facilitated? Conclusions and recommendations are preliminary; further analysis will be carried out based on the feedback from stakeholders. The paper starts by looking at the place of renewable energy on the broader national policy agenda and in the energy sector. It then describes the current status of renewables policy development. It concludes by examining different elements that must be taken into account when fine-tuning the renewable energy policy. The paper highlights relevant experience from other countries, mainly European Union members. The main focus of the paper is on the wholesale market. Investment opportunities in retail markets and distributed generation will be analyzed in more detail in the future. Скрыть -

The global economy has returned to moderate growth amid uncertainty, but the feared 'double dip' recession remains unlikely. The Europe and Central Asia region-hard... Развернуть + est hit by the crisis-is growing slower than the rest of the world. In Russia, growth is being led more by domestic demand-consumption and investment-and credit is beginning to flow. But the way Russian policymakers manage the short-term macroeconomic risks of fiscal spending and inflation-and the long-term challenge of competitiveness and diversification under tighter budget constraint, will determine the medium-term prospects. In developing countries, growth is also easing but remains robust in developing Asia. Most countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region, which was hardest hit by the crisis-returned to growth, albeit less robust than in other regions. Growth in the region is driven by the bounce back of external trade but domestic demand is also growing, especially in the largest regional economies, Russia, Poland, and Turkey. Скрыть -