What a Waste 3.0

What a Waste 3.0 presents the most comprehensive and up-to-date picture of global solid waste management available, drawing on data from 217 countries and economies and 262 cities. The world is generating waste faster than previously projected—2.56 billion tonnes were produced in 2022, a figure the 2018 edition had not expected to be reached until 2030. Driven by urbanization, rising incomes, and increased consumption, waste generation is outpacing both population growth and the capacity of local systems to manage it. Under a business-as-usual scenario, that figure is set to grow to 3.86 billion tonnes by 2050—a 50 percent increase in under three decades.

The crisis is most acute in low-income countries and rapidly growing regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where waste collection rates are as low as 31 and 67 percent respectively, and where the vast majority of waste is openly dumped. Without accelerated investment, these gaps will widen further, locking in higher environmental, health, and economic costs that will be increasingly difficult and expensive to reverse.

Far from being simply a cost to be managed, solid waste management is an increasingly recognized driver of economic development, employment, and urban competitiveness. The sector already employs an estimated 18 million urban waste workers globally, equivalent to around 0.3 percent of the global urban population, with jobs concentrated in collection, sorting, and recycling—particularly in lower-income countries, where the informal sector plays a critical role. As cities transition toward circular economies, where waste-derived materials are reintegrated into productive use, the sector can generate additional employment upstream through research, redesign, and remanufacturing, as well as downstream through recycling industries and related manufacturing. Clean, well-managed cities also attract talent and investment, support higher property values, and strengthen the broader business environment—making effective waste management a foundation for job-rich urban growth.

The global cost of municipal waste management already exceeds US$250 billion annually and is projected to rise to US$426 billion by 2050—but the cost of inaction is even higher. Research cited in What a Waste 3.0 shows that the economic costs of uncollected waste that is burned, dumped, or discharged into waterways, combined with damage from flooding caused by blocked drains, consistently surpass the financial costs of properly operating waste management systems. In middle-income countries, establishing basic but universal waste collection and environmentally sound disposal would require approximately 0.3-0.5 percent of GDP, yet reported public expenditure in most low- and middle-income countries falls well below 0.15 percent of GDP. The challenge is sharpest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where waste volumes are growing fastest alongside the weakest infrastructure and the most constrained municipal budgets. Bridging this gap will require an estimated US$556 billion in investment across low- and lower-middle-income countries between 2022 and 2050—a scale that will demand domestic fiscal resources, international development finance, and private capital, supported by stronger regulatory frameworks and more reliable cost-recovery mechanisms.

What a Waste 3.0 presents two alternative futures for global waste management beyond the business as usual trajectory. Under the low ambition scenario, targeted interventions bring global waste generation down to 3.12 billion tonnes by 2050—half a billion tonnes less than business as usual—while significantly expanding collection coverage, reducing open dumping in low- and lower-middle-income countries, and increasing access to recycling, composting, and sanitary landfilling. The high ambition scenario goes further, capping waste generation at current levels despite ongoing population and economic growth, and delivering substantially greater climate benefits—reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the waste sector to 0.91 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2050, compared to 1.84 billion tonnes under business as usual.

Critically, both scenarios show that greater ambition does not mean greater costs for waste management—lower waste volumes actually reduce overall system costs globally, even as investment needs rise in the lowest-income countries where baseline infrastructure remains weakest. What the scenarios make clear is that the tools exist: waste prevention, source reduction, expanded collection, recycling, composting, and stronger regulatory frameworks can together bend the curve. What is needed is the political will, the financing, and the coordinated action to deploy them at scale.