Tajikistan

Tajikistan is a lower-middle-income country in Central Asia with a population of 10.8 million people (2025). Landlocked, it borders four countries: Afghanistan, China, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan.

Over the last decade, Tajikistan experienced economic growth rate averaging above 7.1%. The economy grew by 8.4% in 2025, driven primarily by remittance inflows. Strong growth, higher wages, and international remittances helped reduce the number of people living in poverty. Thus, poverty measured by the international poverty line of $4.20 a day (2021 PPP) declined from 55% in 2010 to about 14.8% in 2025. Under the national line, poverty rate stood at 19.9% in 2024.

Despite significant progress, Tajikistan remains vulnerable to external shocks due to its dependency on remittances, an undiversified economy, and high risk of debt distress. Remittances amounted to about 46% of GDP in 2025, driving private household consumption and financing imports as domestic production base remains low.

Tajikistan has enormous growth potential due to a young and growing population as well as its potential in sectors like agriculture and food processing, water and hydropower, mineral resources, and tourism. The Government of Tajikistan has set an ambitious target—to more than double or triple domestic incomes between 2016 and 2030—which will require a new growth model centered around a dynamic private sector. Boosting growth and jobs requires structural reforms, improved competition, investment climate, and access to finance, energy sector efficiency, trade, transport and digital connectivity, and human capital development.

Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2025, supported largely by remittances. Growth was broad-based across all sectors, with services and agriculture leading the expansion.

Under the Lower Middle-Income Countries (LMIC) poverty line of $4.20 a day, the poverty rate amounted to 14.8% in 2025.

The  country’s trade deficit widened to 35% of GDP in 2025 due to declining cotton and services exports and higher imports of vehicles, machinery, and non-precious metals. Foreign direct investment inflows weakened further amid a persistently challenging business environment. Meanwhile, robust foreign exchange inflows supported the accumulation of international reserves to $5.6 billion in 2025, equivalent to over eight months of imports.

Economic Outlook

Growth is expected to ease to 6.5% in 2026 as remittances and non-precious metal exports normalize. The conflict in the Middle East is projected to have a small negative effect on overall growth, and higher global prices are expected to raise inflation to 4.8%. Poverty is projected to fall to 13.4% in 2026, though higher inflation may have welfare implications.

Fiscal pressures are expected to persist and grant inflows are expected to decline as Tajikistan transitions out of International Development Association and Asian Development Bank (ADB) grants. The fiscal deficit is projected at 2.2% of GDP, which is the operational anchor to maintain debt sustainability.

Tajikistan continues to face external risks from geopolitical and trade tensions. While structural reforms are advancing, domestic risks, including loss-making state-owned enterprises, European Union sanctions, and natural disasters, could weaken overall economic performance.

Tajikistan joined the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and International Finance Corporation (IFC) of the World Bank Group in 1993, and the International Development Association (IDA) in 1994. Since then, IDA has provided over $3.3 billion in grants and highly concessional credits to support Tajikistan’s efforts to reduce poverty and improve people’s lives.

The World Bank Group’s current Tajikistan Country Partnership Framework (CPF) supports the country’s efforts to complement its remittance-financed, import-reliant economic model with a focus on boosting private-sector development and exports, and job creation. The portfolio has expanded rapidly during the current CPF period.

As of April 2026, the active portfolio includes 25 IDA-funded investment lending projects with a net commitment of $1.93 billion. The current project portfolio includes investments in energy, water, transport, agriculture, disaster risk management, health, education, social protection, digital connectivity, as well as institutional capacity building of tax, finance, and statistics bodies.

The IFC is gradually growing its program in Tajikistan with a total investment portfolio of around $70 million supporting seven clients in advancing their businesses in diverse sectors, such as financial institutions, manufacturing, agriculture and services, and infrastructure development.

The World Bank Group is preparing a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Tajikistan for the next six years (FY2026–2032). The CPF is a strategic document that sets priority areas for World Bank Group support in a country and will guide the collaboration between the World Bank Group and the Government of Tajikistan through assisting Tajikistan in implementing policies aimed at reducing poverty and boosting living standards.

The main objective of the upcoming Tajikistan CPF (still under preparation) will be to support the country’s transition from an economy that is remittance-dependent and highly vulnerable to climate and economic shocks, toward a more sustainable and resilient growth model centered on private-sector job creation, human capital development and climate resilience.

The CPF will be in line with the Government’s National Development Strategy 2030 that focuses on accelerating development while fostering a more equitable society, with better access to jobs and services.

With this in mind, the CPF would be anchored around three strategic outcomes and one cross-cutting outcome:

Outcome 1: Increased Access to Secure, Affordable and Clean Energy

Outcome 2: Better Skilled and Healthy Workforce

Outcome 3: Private Investments for More and Better Jobs

Cross-cutting outcome: Building Resilience to Shocks

This framework is being developed under a One World Bank Group approach, with fully integrated teams across the World Bank, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) collaborating to design and implement coordinated development solutions.

The results achieved under the previous strategy are highlighted in the Completion and Learning Review: tajikistan360.worldbankgroup.org.