Recent Economic Developments and Outlook
Tajikistan's economy has been growing rapidly, underpinned by significant remittance inflows. Real GDP growth was 8.4% in 2024, almost matching the rate in 2023, with services and industry leading the expansion.
Higher consumption and investment compensated for a 20.5% drop in exports, mainly due to reduced shipments of precious metals and cotton.
Domestic demand was supported by large remittance inflows—peaking at 49% of GDP in 2024 compared to 39% in 2023—and higher public sector wages. Strong positive trajectory continued into 2025, with growth rate reaching 8.2% in the first quarter of the year.
Recent poverty reduction has been driven by remittances and rising labor incomes, but Tajikistan is facing growing inequality challenges, especially in rural areas. National poverty decreased from 21.7% in 2022 to 20.4% in 2023, the latest estimate, with 35% of households experiencing upward mobility, mainly due to remittances and labor income growth from services and agriculture sectors. However, inequality has increased since 2021, with rural areas reaching a high level of inequality (Gini coefficient of 39) in 2023, due to uneven remittance distribution and differences in education levels. This underscores the need for targeted interventions to ensure more equitable growth.
In the medium term, economic growth is expected to slow but remain robust. Real GDP is projected to moderate to 7.0% in 2025, 4.9% in 2026, and 4.7% in 2027, mainly due to anticipated normalization of remittance flows.
Economic outlook faces several downside risks that stem from Russia’s labor migration policies, global policy instability, and ongoing regional conflicts. Maintaining the current strong economic trajectory and unlocking Tajikistan's potential growth rate will depend heavily on the the country’s firm commitment to actions aimed at attracting greater private investments, improving public sector efficiency and accountability, and building climate resilience.
Special Topic: Digital Transformation of Trade in Tajikistan
Digital innovation provides Tajikistan with a way to overcome its geographic constraints and transform its trade environment. This change involves not only updating processes with digital tools but also introducing new types of digital commerce. For a landlocked country, these strategies can cut trade costs by over 13% while improving efficiency, transparency, and access to global markets. Effective digitalization can enable local businesses to meet delivery deadlines crucial for participating in global value chains.
While there is progress in trade digitalization, implementation is still incomplete. Tajikistan lags in key areas such as e-participation, online services, internet penetration, telecommunications capability, and technological readiness. Its e-commerce market is expected to grow at a modest 4.7% annual rate from 2025 to 2029, reaching only $28.4million by 2029.
International evidence shows that strong digital trade regulations can reduce goods trade costs by up to 20% and service costs by up to 30%. However, legal and regulatory frameworks in Tajikistan have significant gaps that hinder the development of digital commerce. Although the country has basic electronic documentation laws, it lacks comprehensive provisions for digital identity, paperless trade, data protection, security standards, and consumer safeguards.
Specific areas for improvement include missing data subject rights (i.e., rights granted to individuals under data protection laws), unclear consent protocols, and insufficient breach notification requirements. To speed up digital transformation, coordinated efforts are needed in seven key areas: (i) building digital foundations through improved connectivity and security; (ii) modernizing government digital services; (iii) creating an integrated trade ecosystem; (iv) implementing performance monitoring; (v) strengthening legal frameworks with international standards; (vi) establishing trust mechanisms; and (vii) developing institutional expertise. Each area requires specific actions, such as expanding broadband infrastructure, enforcing cybersecurity standards, and creating comprehensive data protection laws.