Thailand

Thailand has undergone a significant economic transformation over the past three decades, evolving from an agriculture-based economy into a diversified upper-middle-income economydeeply integrated into regional and global value chains. Sound macroeconomic management, export-oriented industrialization, foreign direct investment, infrastructure expansion, and broad gains in human development contributed to substantial poverty reduction, the expansion of the middle class, and the creation of millions of jobs.

The World Bank Group’s Building Thailand’s Future Today flagship report finds that since 1991, Thailand has created close to 11 million formal jobs, more than doubled GDP per capita, and largely eliminated poverty at the US$4.2 a day lower-middle-income threshold. Income per capita rose from about US$1,765 in 1991 to US$8,056 in 2025. Bangkok grew from a city of 5 million people in 1991 to a megacity of nearly 18 million today, while the share of employment in agriculture halved. Improvements in education raised lower secondary completion rates from half in 1991 to near-universal levels today, while advances in healthcare and social protection underpinned substantial gains in human development.

Although Thailand’s progress remains impressive, it is becoming increasingly clear that reaching the next frontier of high-income status will require a new growth model. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, growth has averaged around 2.4 percent, well below the regional average and comparable peers. High household debt weighs on consumption and household resilience, while rising public debt constrains fiscal space for priority investments. Limited economic dynamism constrains innovation and SME growth. Rapid population aging is increasing pressure on labor supply, health systems, pensions, and household resilience. Climate risks are significant: the 2011 floods caused damages equivalent to 12.6 percent of GDP. At the same time, technological change and trade fragmentation are reshaping the conditions for global competitiveness and inclusion.

Agriculture continues to employ roughly 30 percent of the labor force, a share that has remained broadly unchanged over the past decade, despite contributing less than 10 percent of GDP. Urban congestion, particularly in Bangkok, is weighing on productivity, while business regulations and investment restrictions continue to impede competition and innovation.

Thailand also faces persistent disparities in income, wealth and opportunity. The top 10 percent of households hold more than half of the country’s wealth incomes and wealth are concentrated in Bangkok and surrounding regions, while rural areas, particularly in the north and northeast, are significantly poorer and more vulnerable to climate shocks.

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Thailand’s GDP growth has averaged 2.4 percent since 2021, reflecting population aging, weak investment, and sluggish productivity growth. Growth is projected to slow from 2.4 percent in 2025 to 2.0 percent in 2026, as higher energy costs and disruptions to tourism and trade from the Middle East conflict offset resilience in AI-related exports and investment.

With Thailand aiming to become a high-income country by 2037, the World Bank Group’s Building Thailand’s Future Today report outlines a roadmap of actions to achieve this target. The analysis finds that the next phase of growth will require stronger productivity growth driven by technology adoption, innovation, skills, greater domestic value added, more competitive firms, and more productive cities. Together, these reforms could place Thailand on a path toward the 5.4 percent annual GDP per capita growth needed to reach high-income status by 2037.

The report identifies five industries of the future in which Thailand has strong comparative advantages and significant potential to create better jobs: advanced manufacturing, sustainable and wellness tourism, digital services, agrifood, and creative industries.

In the near term, fiscal rebalancing toward public investment, while safeguarding fiscal and financial stability will be essential to mitigate risks and support a more inclusive and sustainable recovery. Strengthening human capital, improving the investment climate, and accelerating digital transformation can raise productivity and support better jobs.

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The World Bank has partnered with Thailand for more than 75 years, supporting the country’s development and helping address challenges that affect people’s lives. Through the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Thailand FY2027-2032, the World Bank Group will support Thailand’s next phase of growth and job creation by helping build a more competitive and resilient economy.

The new CPF combines knowledge and reform support, with selective sovereign financing and private investment to support Thailand’s path toward high-income status. The CPF is aligned with Thailand’s long-term development goals and the priorities of the forthcoming 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan (2028-2032). The CPF focuses on two outcomes:

• A more competitive private sector: Supporting firms to raise productivity, innovate, adopt digital technologies, compete in regional and global markets, and expand access to finance for small businesses.

• Enhanced resilience for growth: Supporting water, transport and energy infrastructure, fiscal resilience, disaster preparedness, and social protection.

The renewed partnership is already translating into investments on the ground. The Thailand Resilient Transport Connectivity and Irrawaddy Dolphin Conservation Project (TRIP) supports sustainable tourism and job creation through more resilient transport connectivity, while supporting government efforts to conserve the critically endangered Irrawaddy dolphins in Songkhla Lake. The World Bank is also supporting the Low Carbon Cities and Carbon Market Development Project, working with the public and private sectors to improve urban energy efficiency, expand renewable energy, and reduce emissions while strengthening the foundations for greener and more resilient urban growth.

By mobilizing private capital and leveraging World Bank Group expertise, the CPF aims to help Thailand boost productivity, support better jobs, strengthen resilience, and create the conditions for sustained, and inclusive growth.

The World Bank’s active knowledge and research work supports priorities in four thematic areas: (1) economic and financial policy, (2) urban and infrastructure development, including urban planning, climate resilience, and digital transformation, (3) private sector and governance, and (4) social inclusion and livelihoods, including social protection and livelihood enhancement. The World Bank publishes the Thailand Economic Monitor twice a year. A robust reimbursable advisory services (RAS) program, operating under a Framework Agreement extended through November 22, 2028, has completed 24 engagements with current engagements focusing on innovation and growth, area‑based urban development, education and skills, and business‑enabling reforms. IFC’s investment portfolio has nearly quadrupled from 2020 to 2025, totaling $1.7 billion, focusing on private capital mobilization, sustainability, and micro, small, and medium enterprise (MSME) financing to support more and better jobs.

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From October 12–18, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) will hold their Annual Meetings in Bangkok, one of the world’s largest gatherings of economic and development leaders, bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, private investors, and development leaders from over 180 countries. Thailand last hosted the Annual Meetings in 1991. In Bangkok, the discussions will focus on three critical drivers of future job creation: how artificial intelligence can raise productivity and expand opportunity;  how private capital can be mobilized for development; and how financing for SMEs can support job creation at scale.

The global spotlight offers Thailand an opportunity to position itself to the world as a forward-looking, resilient nation with bold ideas and real potential for future prosperity. The World Bank Group in Thailand has been working with Thai stakeholders to build momentum toward the 2026 Annual Meetings, including through the Building Thailand’s Future Today flagship report. Developed through extensive consultations with government, civil society, students, academics, think tanks and business leaders, the report sets out a forward-looking roadmap for Thailand’s transition to high-income status by 2037. It was launched at the Bangkok Business Summit 2026, where government and business leaders advanced discussions on Thailand’s next phase of economic transformation ahead of the Annual Meetings.

In the decades since the 1991 Annual Meetings were held in Thailand, the East Asia and the Pacific region has transformed in remarkable ways. As the world's fastest-growing region, these economies have fueled close to 40 percent of global GDP, provided a home for over half of the world’s population, and driven approximately 60 percent of recent global growth. The region has been resilient to many recent shocks, including the pandemic, regional conflicts, and the global inflation surge of 2022-23, and is once again navigating a difficult global trade policy environment. More generally, East Asia stands at an exciting crossroads with opportunities and challenges posed by sweeping transformations in technological advances, climate shocks, aging populations, and changing patterns of trade and financial flows.

Visit the official Annual Meetings webpages of the IMF and World Bank Group for more information:

IMF Connect
WBG AMWeb

Thailand Host CountryWebsite: am2026thailand.go.th/
Facebook: www.facebook.com/AM2026Thailand

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