Nigeria

Nigeria is a multi-ethnic and culturally diverse federation of 36 autonomous states and the Federal Capital Territory. The political landscape is partly dominated by the ruling All Progressives Congress party (APC) which controls the executive arm of government and holds majority seats at both the National Assembly, and majority of the States.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been in office since May 29, 2023. Nigeria continues to face challenges that include insecurity such as banditry and kidnappings especially in the north-west region, continued insurgency in the north-east, and separatist agitations in the south-east.

Another persistent challenge for the country is absorbing the 3.5 million people entering its labor force annually. Weak job creation, limited entrepreneurial opportunities, and rising emigration highlight the need for continued focus on generating adequate quality employment.

Despite recent reforms, poverty remains widespread—over 60% of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, with food inflation disproportionately affecting poor households who spend up to 70% of their income on food.

State capacity remains weak in many regions, with limited delivery and widespread insecurity. Infrastructure gaps—especially in electricity, transport, and logistics—continue to hinder domestic market integration and productivity.

Recent macroeconomic reforms offer a foundation for a new social compact. Stabilizing inflation, increased revenues and reserves, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility have improved macroeconomic stability and policy credibility. If sustained, the reforms can pave the way for deeper structural changes—such as improved public service delivery, better infrastructure and a more conducive environment for private sector-led growth.

With targeted investments in human and physical capital, and enabling more private sector participation, Nigeria can shift from a low-equilibrium trap to a more dynamic and inclusive growth path.

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Nigeria’s macroeconomic reforms since 2023 have helped in stabilizing the economy. In 2025, the economy strengthened and proved more resilient to lower oil prices than in previous downturns.

Growth held steady at a moderate rate of 4%, driven primarily by services—particularly ICT, finance, and real estate alongside a pickup in agricultural and construction activity. Although inflation remained in double digits, it declined from 33.2% in 2024 to 23.0% in 2025, supported by tight monetary conditions, lower exchange rate volatility and improved agricultural output. At the same time, both the external and fiscal accounts showed signs of reduced influence from oil dynamics.

The current account remained in a sizeable surplus of 4.8% of GDP, driven by resilient oil export receipts alongside improving non-oil exports and strong diaspora remittance flows. Foreign exchange reserves increased substantially to $45.5 billion, and fiscal revenues rose for the fifth consecutive year as non-oil revenue collections strengthened, although fiscal pressures and high debt-service costs persist.

With inflation remaining high, however, an additional 7 million Nigerians are estimated to have fallen into poverty in 2025, raising the share of the population living below the national poverty line to an estimated 63% from 61% in 2024. Roll-out of the government’s targeted cash transfers for 15 million vulnerable households has been slower than planned due to the integration of the national social register with biometric data in the national identity management system.

Building on the recent macroeconomic reforms, Nigeria needs to start addressing deep structural constraints that limit growth and the creation of better jobs. This will ensure that macroeconomic gains are translated into better living conditions for Nigerians. Important in this regard are removal of trade barriers, improving logistics and electricity supply, and enhancing the business environment.

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AGILE (Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment): Launched in 2021, AGILE improves secondary education for girls in 18 Nigerian states. By 2025, 2.1 million adolescent girls benefitted from improved school infrastructure (13,000 classrooms, 8,900 WASH facilities), and 466,876 vulnerable girls received scholarships, increasing enrollment and transition rates; 225,000 students gained digital literacy skills Between 2022–2025, 200,000 girls participated in safe space programs, receiving training in reproductive health, menstrual hygiene, and personal confidence.

NASSP-SU (National Social Safety Net Program Scale-Up): NASSP-SU expands shock-responsive cash transfers nationwide, targeting 56 million poor and vulnerable people. Over 42 million have received digital cash transfers, with 94% of regular transfer recipients being women. The program strengthens social registries, digital payments, and resilience to economic shocks.

ANRiN (Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria): ANRiN delivers cost-effective nutrition services to pregnant women, adolescents, and children under five in 11 states. Over 13.5 million beneficiaries, including 9 million children and 4.3 million women, received nutrition interventions, reducing malnutrition and stunting, and strengthening state capacity for large-scale nutrition programs.

NFWP (Nigeria for Women Program): NFWP empowers women (18+) in six states through Women Affinity Groups (WAGs), savings, livelihood grants, and skills training. Over 1 million women have benefited, forming 22,000+ WAGs, saving over N5 billion, and accessing markets, credit, and decision-making roles, promoting financial independence and social inclusion.

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The World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria (FY2021–FY2025) which will be updated at the end of 2025 in 2026 continues to guide its support for Nigeria’s development priorities. Structured around four key pillars—human capital development, job creation and economic diversification, resilience and fragility reduction, and public sector strengthening—the CPF aligns with Nigeria’s ambition of economic growth and improved livelihood of citizens.

As of 2026 and with the overarching goal of "Creating more and better private sector jobs", the World Bank’s active portfolio in Nigeria stands at over $16.4 billion, with significant financing from IDA and IBRD. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) maintains one of its fastest-growing portfolios in Africa, supporting private sector-led growth. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) also plays a role in de-risking investments.

The World Bank’s engagement in Nigeria has centered on driving inclusive growth, focusing on youth, women, and marginalized communities. It supports reforms to improve public service delivery, empower women and girls, enhance domestic revenue mobilization, and strengthen debt management. Recent macroeconomic reforms—such as subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and tighter monetary policy—have created fiscal space for deeper structural transformation.

Nigeria’s upcoming 2026-2032 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) will align both Nigeria and the World Bank’s focus on job creation. The key pillars will be:

1. Improve Private Sector Competitiveness and Growth
2. Maximize Private Capital for Infrastructure and Agribusiness
3. Unlock a more productive and healthier population
4. Build resilience of people and ecosystems

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