Nigeria

Nigeria is a multi-ethnic and culturally diverse federation of 36 autonomous states and the Federal Capital Territory. The political landscape is partly dominated by the ruling All Progressives Congress party (APC) which controls the executive arm of government and holds majority seats at both the National Assembly, and majority of the States.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has been in office since May 29, 2023. Nigeria continues to face challenges that include insecurity such as banditry and kidnappings especially in the north-west region, continued insurgency in the north-east, and separatist agitations in the south-east.

Another persistent challenge for the country is absorbing the 3.5 million people entering its labor force annually. Weak job creation, limited entrepreneurial opportunities, and rising emigration highlight the need for continued focus on generating adequate quality employment.

Despite recent reforms, poverty remains widespread—over 60% of Nigerians were estimated to live below the national poverty line in 2025, with food inflation disproportionately affecting poor households who spend up to 70% of their income on food.

State capacity remains weak in many regions, with limited delivery and widespread insecurity. Infrastructure gaps—especially in electricity, transport, and logistics—continue to hinder domestic market integration and productivity.

Recent macroeconomic reforms offer a foundation for a new social compact. Stabilizing inflation, increased revenues and reserves, and enhancing exchange rate flexibility have improved macroeconomic stability and policy credibility. If sustained, the reforms can pave the way for deeper structural changes—such as improved public service delivery, better infrastructure and a more conducive environment for private sector-led growth.

With targeted investments in human and physical capital, and enabling more private sector participation, Nigeria can shift from a low-equilibrium trap to a more dynamic and inclusive growth path.

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Nigeria’s macroeconomic performance improved further in 2026, reflecting reforms initiated since 2023. Real GDP grew by 4.2% in H1 2026, up from 3.9% a year earlier, driven mainly by services and stronger agriculture. However, growth remains insufficient to generate enough productive jobs and materially reduce poverty. In 2025, an estimated 69.6% of Nigerians lived below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day, while 50.8%, or 123 million people, lived in extreme poverty, reflecting high inflation and weak real income growth.

Disinflation continued but was temporarily slowed by higher fuel and transport costs linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Headline inflation fell from 27.4% in March 2025 to 15.1% in February 2026, but averaged 15.7% during March–July, while food inflation reached 20.3% in July. The policy rate remained at 26.5%.

The external position strengthened on higher oil exports and portfolio inflows. The current account surplus rose to $5.0 billion in Q1 2026 from $1.4 billion in Q4 2025, while gross reserves reached $51.9 billion at end-July. However, reliance on short-term portfolio flows remains a vulnerability.

Fiscal revenues strengthened, but higher spending is projected to widen the deficit from 3.1% of GDP in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026. Higher FAAC transfers supported state revenues and capital spending, but outcomes remain uneven and reliance on federal transfers has increased. High debt-service costs and weaknesses in budget and public investment management constrain the impact of higher revenues.

The outlook remains positive, with growth projected to average 4.4% during 2026–28 and inflation to decline toward 12% by 2028. Translating stabilization into better living standards will require greater private investment, productivity and job creation, supported by improved infrastructure, human capital, competition, and social protection.

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AGILE (Adolescent Girls Initiative for Learning and Empowerment): Launched in 2021, AGILE improves secondary education for girls in 18 Nigerian states. By 2025, 2.1 million adolescent girls benefitted from improved school infrastructure (13,000 classrooms, 8,900 WASH facilities), and 466,876 vulnerable girls received scholarships, increasing enrollment and transition rates; 225,000 students gained digital literacy skills Between 2022–2025, 200,000 girls participated in safe space programs, receiving training in reproductive health, menstrual hygiene, and personal confidence.

NASSP-SU (National Social Safety Net Program Scale-Up): NASSP-SU expands shock-responsive cash transfers nationwide, targeting 56 million poor and vulnerable people. Over 42 million have received digital cash transfers, with 94% of regular transfer recipients being women. The program strengthens social registries, digital payments, and resilience to economic shocks.

ANRiN (Accelerating Nutrition Results in Nigeria): ANRiN delivers cost-effective nutrition services to pregnant women, adolescents, and children under five in 11 states. Over 13.5 million beneficiaries, including 9 million children and 4.3 million women, received nutrition interventions, reducing malnutrition and stunting, and strengthening state capacity for large-scale nutrition programs.

NFWP (Nigeria for Women Program): NFWP empowers women (18+) in six states through Women Affinity Groups (WAGs), savings, livelihood grants, and skills training. Over 1 million women have benefited, forming 22,000+ WAGs, saving over N5 billion, and accessing markets, credit, and decision-making roles, promoting financial independence and social inclusion.

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The World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria, updated in 2026 continues to guide its support for Nigeria’s development priorities. Structured around four key pillars—human capital development, job creation and economic diversification, resilience and fragility reduction, and public sector strengthening—the CPF aligns with Nigeria’s ambition of economic growth and improved livelihood of citizens.

As of 2026 and with the overarching goal of "Creating more and better private sector jobs", the World Bank’s active portfolio in Nigeria stands at over $16.4 billion, with significant financing from IDA and IBRD. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) maintains one of its fastest-growing portfolios in Africa, supporting private sector-led growth. The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) also plays a role in de-risking investments.

The World Bank’s engagement in Nigeria has centered on driving inclusive growth, focusing on youth, women, and marginalized communities. It supports reforms to improve public service delivery, empower women and girls, enhance domestic revenue mobilization, and strengthen debt management. Recent macroeconomic reforms—such as subsidy removal, exchange rate unification, and tighter monetary policy—have created fiscal space for deeper structural transformation.

Nigeria’s upcoming 2026-2032 Country Partnership Framework (CPF) will align both Nigeria and the World Bank’s focus on job creation. The key pillars will be:

1. Improve Private Sector Competitiveness and Growth
2. Maximize Private Capital for Infrastructure and Agribusiness
3. Unlock a more productive and healthier population
4. Build resilience of people and ecosystems

By mobilizing private capital and leveraging the full breadth of WBG expertise, the CPF aims to catalyze transformative and lasting impact in one of Africa's most consequential development opportunities.

Country Partnership Framework for Nigeria (FY26–32)

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