Niger

Located in West Africa at the heart of the Sahel, Niger has a narrow-based economy that remains heavily dependent on agriculture. Despite ongoing efforts to improve living conditions, poverty remains a major challenge. As of December 31, 2025, nearly 3 million people needed humanitarian assistance across the country, including 984,366 forcibly displaced persons (refugees and internally displaced persons)—an increase of about 12% compared to the same period in 2024.

Political Context

Since the coup d’état of July 26, 2023, Niger has been governed by a transition government led by General Abdourahmane Tiani. In May 2025, President Tiani established the Consultative Council for Refoundation (CCR), an advisory body designed to guide the country’s refoundation process.

The border with Benin remains closed, continuing to disrupt commercial trade and formal transit links. However, Niger has made progress in diplomatic relations, particularly with the European Union. Several EU member states renewed cooperation agreements in 2025, signaling improved international engagement.

Niger continues to face insecurity in several regions, including Liptako-Gourma (Tillaberi region) and the Lake Chad Basin (Diffa region), where attacks persist. Armed groups in the southern and western parts of the Dosso region continue to commit violations against civilians, including pipeline sabotage, kidnappings, extortion, and violent raids. These activities have exacerbated the security crisis and affected local communities. The government remains committed to promoting peace and stability, with the aim of reducing violence and fostering lasting reconciliation.

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Economic Situation

In 2025, growth in 2025 is projected at 6.5% (3.1% per capita), driven by oil exports, with inflation at 4.2%, and extreme poverty incidence declining by 2.8 points (projection from microsimulation). In response to fiscal challenges, authorities adopted a revised 2025 budget with conservative revenue estimates and reduced investment. Growth is projected to average 6.7% in 2026-2027, as oil production nears full capacity.

Recent Developments

GDP growth in 2025 is driven by a rise in oil output to 28 million barrels.

Inflation turned negative in the second quarter of 2025 and is estimated to average 4.2% in 2025, down from 9.1% in 2024, reflecting food prices. With robust growth and moderating inflation, the extreme poverty rate is projected to decline from 52.9% in 2024 to 50.1% in 2025, lifting about 310,000 people out of poverty.

The authorities adopted a supplementary budget with conservative revenues and reduced expenditure mainly on investments, alongside broadened VAT exemptions for primary producers and widely consumed goods. The fiscal deficit is projected at 3.2% of GDP in 2025, while the January 2025 Debt Sustainability Analysis indicates a high risk of overall debt distress due to lower revenue projections. Arrears clearance is planned by end‑2025, but rollover risks have risen due to tighter regional bond markets.

Economic Outlook

GDP growth is projected to average 6.7% in 2026–2027, supported by oil output nearing full capacity at 106,000 bpd and stronger demand. Public spending should accelerate after mid‑2026, when repayment of a $400 million oil‑backed loan restores 80% of oil revenues to the budget. Clearing domestic arrears in 2025 and higher oil receipts will bolster investment in 2026.

Inflation is expected to ease to 2% by 2027, within WAEMU’s 1–3% target, aided by lower food prices. With stronger growth, extreme poverty is projected to fall by about 440,000 people by 2027, to 45.6%.

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Health

The World Bank supports Niger in improving access to health care, combating malnutrition, and empowering women and girls. Key results include access to health and nutrition services with nearly six million women and children under five having benefited from health and nutrition services. Improved infrastructure and equipment with the construction of 40 new health facilities and rehabilitation of 211 integrated health centers.

Energy

The World Bank–Niger partnership mobilizes $1.2 billion to finance one national and four regional projects, including the Kandadji Dam program, aiming to provide electricity to more than 4.5 million people. In addition, in January 2025, Niger adopted the Compact under the World Bank-African Development Bank M300 initiative, committing to reach an electricity access rate of at least 60% by 2030.

Agriculture

With IDA support, the Bank promotes food security, climate resilience, and agricultural modernization through the following: (i) The Sahel Pastoralism Support Project (PRAPS) mobilized $110 million, vaccinating over 42 million livestock and restoring nearly 700,000 hectares of pastoral land; (ii) The Food Systems Resilience Program (PRSA), with $60 million, supported seed and fertilizer distribution and provided agro-hydro-meteorological information to about 72,000 producers; and (iii) the Irrigated Agriculture and Livestock Intensification Project (PACIPA), designed as a $1 billion multi-phase program (MPA) through 2036, is a flagship initiative. Its first phase targets 18,000 hectares of irrigated land, improved crop and livestock genetics, modern technology dissemination, and agricultural financing. The Regional Support Project for Pastoralism in the Sahel (PRAPS-2) strengthens the livestock sector.

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The government has developed a Resilience Program for the Republic (PRR) for the period of 2025-2029, which is expected to be officially approved in 2025. The PRR aims to ensure the well-being of all Nigeriens by reducing both national and multidimensional poverty.

Aligning with the government's Program for Refoundation of the Republic (PRR) for 2025-2029 the Niger FY26-31 CPF is organized around an overarching goal of "More and Better Jobs," with three mutually reinforcing outcomes and one cross-cutting outcome: 1) a healthier, better educated, and skilled population; 2) increased access to electricity; 3) improved agricultural productivity and food security; and 4) as a cross-cutting outcome, on macro-fiscal management and access to finance and markets. Over the CPF period (FY26–FY31), expected results include 8.4 million people receiving quality health and nutrition services (UHC); 0.3 million students supported with better education; 4.3 million people gaining access to electricity (Mission 300); 2.5 million people with strengthened food security; and US$241million private capital mobilized.

As of March 2026, the World Bank is financing 24 operations in Niger: 14 national projects and 10 regional projects, valued at $4.7 billion, including both grants and loans. Investments are concentrated in water and transport (17% each), followed by energy (13%), agriculture (11%), governance (9%), education (8%), alongside support to health, urban development, social inclusion, environment, and digital. The newly approved financial sector operation (P507762) will support access to liquidity in the financial sector and expand lending to MSMEs.

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IFC is committed to unlocking private sector growth in Niger through a strategy focused on building a resilient financial sector, developing critical infrastructure in the energy sector, and improving the investment climate.

IFC implements this through a concentrated portfolio in the financial and infrastructure sectors. For instance, IFC provided long-term financing to Airtel Niger to enhance digital connectivity and a risk-sharing facility to BOA Niger to increase funding for MSMEs. In PPP advisory, IFC is supporting the government in structuring a 50MW Scaling Solar project. In addition, IFC conducted a corporate governance and risk management assessment of the agricultural bank of Niger (BAGRI) to identify improvement opportunities and enhance the bank’s institutional capacity and resilience. IFC capacity-building initiatives further complement these efforts, including financial management training for MSMEs and investment readiness preparation for four local companies under the local champion initiative.

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