Mali

A vast Sahelian country, Mali is a low-income economy, with limited diversification and vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations. Rapid population growth, low agricultural productivity, and climate change are major challenges to food security.

Political Situation

Mali has been experiencing a period of instability and conflict since the 2012 military coup and the occupation of the northern regions by armed groups.

Following the institutional breakdown of August 18, 2020, a transitional government and a National Transitional Council (CNT), acting as the parliament, were established. After a second breakdown, Colonel Assimi Goïta was declared Head of State by the Constitutional Court on May 28, 2021. In May 2025, the government dissolved all political parties and banned their activities, citing public order concerns.

On July 3rd, Mali’s transitional parliament granted General Assimi Goïta a renewable five-year presidential until the country is pacified. The bill also stipulates that transitional presidents, government officials, and legislative members are eligible to participate in future presidential and general elections.

The security situation has deteriorated significantly since 2025, marked by the capture of Kidal by armed groups, including the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA), as well as the assassination of the Minister of Defense during the attacks in Bamako in April 2025. Fuel supply disruptions in September 2025 have compounded the challenges. Despite a recent slight improvement, security risks remain high and continue to weigh on state capacity and service delivery.

At the regional level, Mali joined Burkina Faso and Niger in signing the Liptako-Gourma Charter on September 16, 2023, thereby creating the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The second AES Heads of State summit, held in Bamako in December 2025, launched two major initiatives: the Confederal Investment and Development Bank, capitalized at 500 billion CFA francs (about $900 million) to finance strategic infrastructure and enhance financial sovereignty, and the AES Unified Force, a 5,000‑strong joint military structure.

Mali's economy remains poorly diversified, heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture and commodity exports, making it highly vulnerable to climate shocks, insecurity, and price volatility.

Exports remain focused on gold, while lithium is gradually asserting itself as a major export commodity and agriculture remains the main source of livelihood for poor rural households. Poverty reduction and job creation remain pressing challenges, with an estimated 235,000 young people entering the workforce each year.

GDP growth is projected to increase from 4.1% in 2025 to 5.0% in 2026, or 2.0% per capita, supported by mining and services. Industrial production is projected to grow by 5%, driven by mining and construction. However, agricultural growth is expected to slow to 3.8%, driven by lower cotton, reduced access to inputs related to the Middle East, and less favorable rains. Over the 2027-2028 period, growth is projected to average 5.3%, supported by lithium, favorable gold prices, services, and agricultural recovery.

The current account deficit is projected to reach 5.2% of GDP in 2026, due to lower cotton exports and higher imports of fuel, freight, and construction materials, before narrowing. Inflation is expected to exceed the WAEMU ceiling of 3%, driven by higher fuel and agricultural input costs resulting from disruptions in trade corridors and supply chains.

Extreme poverty is expected to remain broadly unchanged at 34.9% in 2026 despite government support for agriculture. The fiscal deficit is projected to reach 2.8% of GDP in 2026, driven by higher public spending, particularly in the security sector, despite moderate tax revenue growth. Public debt is projected to decline to 39.5% of GDP, and the risk of debt distress remains moderate.

The outlook remains subject to downside risks related to insecurity, climate shocks, including adverse rainfall conditions associated with El Niño, and global geopolitical tensions.

The Bamako Urban Resilience Project (PRUBA) enhances the city’s long term resilience by improving solid waste management, water and sanitation access, and flood prevention, while upgrading infrastructure and public spaces and promoting inclusive, green growth.

Key results include:

• 1,671 jobs created, including 40% for women
• Over 190 km of drainage infrastructure cleaned in 2024–2025
• More than 3.2 million people benefit from improved drainage
• 465,133 m³ of waste removed from critical sites in Bamako

The Mali Landscape Restoration and Resilience Project (PRTD) deliver integrated land restoration through anti erosion measures, native species planting, and improved agroforestry systems that enhance soil productivity and livelihoods.

Key results include:

• 88,600 beneficiaries, 52% of whom are women, benefit from landscape restoration activities.
• 340,900 hectares of forests are now managed sustainably through 44 forest management plans and 21 pastoral plans.
• 600 women active in the non-timber forest products sector received financial support.
• 7,000 jobs have been created or identified as a result of the new economic opportunities generated by the project.

The World Bank Group’s FY26–FY31 Country Partnership Framework for Mali focuses on strengthening resilience and enabling private sector–led job creation to help the country move beyond fragility. Aligned with Mali’s SNEDD 2024–2033, the strategy prioritizes human capital, agriculture, and energy to create more and better jobs—especially for youth and women. Through a flexible One WBG approach, it combines reforms, targeted investments, and private capital mobilization to address FCV drivers and support inclusive, climate resilient growth.

Mali Country Partnership Framework (CPF) FY26-FY31

In Mali, IFC is mobilizing the private sector to support the country’s economic recovery and resilience. IFC’s current strategy focuses on the following priorities:

• Strengthening the banking sector and microfinance institutions.
• Restructuring and restoring the viability of the private sector to reduce the political and security crisis’s impact on real-sector enterprises and financial institutions, with a focus on investments in the energy sector and support for reforms in telecommunications and digital finance.
• Supporting the recovery and reconstruction of the economy by encouraging reforms to improve the business environment, boost investment in infrastructure, agriculture, and agro-industry, and promote financial inclusion.

IFC’s work in Mali also includes technical assistance projects aimed at improving the operations of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the overall business climate, in collaboration with the World Bank.

As of August 31, 2026, IFC’s commitments in Mali totaled $465.6 million and included 17 investment projects in the finance, infrastructure, services, and agro-industry sectors, as well as several technical assistance projects aimed at furthering the financial inclusion and improving food and health safety, financial management for Malian private enterprises.