A vast Sahelian country, Mali is a low-income economy, with limited diversification and vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations. Rapid population growth, low agricultural productivity, and climate change are major challenges to food security.

Political Situation

Mali has been experiencing a period of instability and conflict since the 2012 military coup and the occupation of the northern regions by armed groups.

Following the institutional breakdown of August 18, 2020, a transitional government and a National Transitional Council (CNT), acting as the parliament, were established. After a second breakdown, Colonel Assimi Goïta was declared Head of State by the Constitutional Court on May 28, 2021. In May 2025, the government dissolved all political parties and banned their activities, citing public order concerns.

On July 3rd, Mali’s transitional parliament granted General Assimi Goïta a renewable five-year presidential until the country is pacified. The bill also stipulates that transitional presidents, government officials, and legislative members are eligible to participate in future presidential and general elections.

The security situation became more challenging in September 2025, as terrorist groups disrupted fuel supplies to Bamako by targeting fuel tankers serving the capital. While the situation has since shown modest improvement, it remains volatile, with persistent security risks along key supply routes and continued pressure on state capacity and service delivery.

At the regional level, Mali joined Burkina Faso and Niger in signing the Liptako-Gourma Charter on September 16, 2023, thereby creating the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The second AES Heads of State summit, held in Bamako in December 2025, launched two major initiatives: the Confederal Investment and Development Bank, capitalized at 500 billion CFA francs (about $900 million) to finance strategic infrastructure and enhance financial sovereignty, and the AES Unified Force, a 5,000‑strong joint military structure.

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Mali’s economy remains undiversified, with a heavy dependence on rainfed agriculture and commodity exports, leaving it highly exposed to climate shocks, insecurity, and price volatility.

Gold and cotton dominate exports, while services and agriculture account for a large share of output and employment. Poverty reduction and job creation remain pressing challenges, as around 235,000 young people enter the labor market each year.

GDP growth is projected to reach 4.9% in 2025 (about 1.9% per capita), supported by the start of lithium production, continued expansion in services, and solid agricultural performance. Industrial activity is recovering, driven by mineral extraction and stronger cotton ginning, partly offsetting a 4% decline in gold export volumes linked to temporary mine closures following tax disputes.

Over the 2026–2027 period, real GDP growth is expected to average around 5%, underpinned by lithium output, agriculture, and telecommunications. Macroeconomic pressures persist. The current account deficit is projected to widen to 6.5% of GDP in 2025, reflecting high import costs, including energy.

Inflation is expected to exceed the WAEMU ceiling of 3%, driven by conflict‑related crop losses, climate shocks, and disruptions in food distribution. Poverty levels are forecast to remain broadly stable in 2025, declining only marginally to 36.4%.

The fiscal deficit is projected to widen to 3.3% of GDP in 2025 due to lower‑than‑expected mining revenues and rising spending pressures from public recruitment and flood‑related responses. With public debt estimated at 52.9% of GDP, the risk of debt distress remains moderate.

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The Bamako Urban Resilience Project (PRUBA) enhances the city’s long term resilience by improving solid waste management, water and sanitation access, and flood prevention, while upgrading infrastructure and public spaces and promoting inclusive, green growth.

Key results include:

• 1,671 jobs created, including 40% for women
• Over 190 km of drainage infrastructure cleaned in 2024–2025
• More than 3.2 million people benefit from improved drainage
• 465,133 m³ of waste removed from critical sites in Bamako

The Mali Landscape Restoration and Resilience Project (PRTD) deliver integrated land restoration through anti erosion measures, native species planting, and improved agroforestry systems that enhance soil productivity and livelihoods.

Key results include:

• 88,600 beneficiaries, including 52% women, reached through restoration activities
• Six community based integrated agro silvo pastoral farms established
• 44 forest and 21 pastoral management plans developed, covering 340,900 hectares
• 600 women supported in non timber forest products
• Around 7,000 jobs generated through new income opportunities

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The World Bank Group’s FY26–FY31 Country Partnership Framework for Mali focuses on strengthening resilience and enabling private sector–led job creation to help the country move beyond fragility. Aligned with Mali’s SNEDD 2024–2033, the strategy prioritizes human capital, agriculture, and energy to create more and better jobs—especially for youth and women. Through a flexible One WBG approach, it combines reforms, targeted investments, and private capital mobilization to address FCV drivers and support inclusive, climate resilient growth.

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In Mali, IFC is mobilizing the private sector to support the country’s economic recovery and resilience. IFC’s current strategy focuses on the following priorities:

• Strengthening the banking sector and microfinance institutions.
• Restructuring and restoring the viability of the private sector to reduce the political and security crisis’s impact on real-sector enterprises and financial institutions, with a focus on investments in the energy sector and support for reforms in telecommunications and digital finance.
• Supporting the recovery and reconstruction of the economy by encouraging reforms to improve the business environment, boost investment in infrastructure, agriculture, and agro-industry, and promote financial inclusion.

IFC’s work in Mali also includes technical assistance projects aimed at improving the operations of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and the overall business climate, in collaboration with the World Bank.

As of March 30, 2026, IFC’s commitments in Mali totaled $493.25 million and included 16 investment projects in the finance, infrastructure, services, and agro-industry sectors, as well as several technical assistance projects aimed at furthering the financial inclusion and improving food and health safety, financial management for Malian private enterprises.

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