The Gambia

The Gambia is the smallest country on mainland Africa. Defined by the Gambia River, which flows east to west, the river shapes the country’s geography, creating fertile plains and supporting rich ecosystems that are central to the national economy. The country is surrounded by Senegal, except for its Atlantic coastline, and has a population of approximately 2.5 million. Covering just 10,700 square kilometers, The Gambia is one of Africa’s most densely populated countries, with 176 people per square kilometer. More than half of the population (57%) live in urban and peri-urban areas.

Political Context

The 2016 presidential election marked the end of 22 years of autocratic rule under Yahya Jammeh, ushering in a new era with President Adama Barrow assuming office in 2017. Re-elected in 2021, Barrow’s administration has been navigating a complex post-dictatorship transition focused on democratic consolidation and institutional reform. A cornerstone of this transition has been constitutional reform. However, efforts to replace the 1997 Constitution have repeatedly stalled. A revised draft introduced in July 2025 was rejected by the National Assembly, echoing a similar outcome in 2020. The next presidential election is scheduled for December 5, 2026.

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Economic growth in The Gambia accelerated to an estimated 5.9% (3.6% per capita) in 2025, supported by broad-based sectoral expansion. Rice and groundnut production benefited from favorable policies and rainfall, industry from increased construction activity, and services from strong tourism. Robust private consumption and tourism service exports supported growth on the demand side. Inflation returned to single digits, reaching 7.9% in 2025, reflecting lower food prices and monetary tightening. GDP is projected to grow by 5.3% (3.0% per capita) in 2026, supported by broad‑based sectoral expansion despite fiscal consolidation and Middle East conflict-related shocks, including inflationary, balance of payments and currency pressures.

Inflation returned to single digits, reaching 7.9% in 2025, reflecting lower food prices and monetary tightening. Higher labor incomes – driven by growth in the agriculture and tourism sectors – and soaring remittances supported household consumption and higher living standards, contributing to a decline in extreme poverty to an estimated 20.3% in 2025 from 21.5% in 2024.

The fiscal deficit narrowed to an estimated 2.8% of GDP in 2025, as revenues rose by 2.8 percentage points to 24.1% of GDP— driven by grants, tax and non-tax revenues, including higher mining royalties—, despite a 1.4 percentage points increase in expenditure to 26.9% of GDP. This resulted in a primary balance surplus for the first time since 2019. Debt to GDP continued to decline to 76.4% in 2025 and is projected to fall further to 68.8% in 2026, though the country remains at high risk of debt distress per December 2025 WB/IMF Debt Sustainability Analysis.

The current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to an estimated 5.1% of GDP in 2025, reflecting lower investment‑related imports after the completion of major infrastructure projects, robust remittances, and higher tourism exports. Monetary policy remained tight despite a 100‑basis‑point policy rate cut to 16% in December 2025 as inflation eased.

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The Gambia Electricity Restoration and Modernization Project has improved the operational and financial performance of the National Water and Electricity Company.

The Resilience, Inclusion, Skills, and Equity Project aims to increase job-relevant skills of young people and income-generating opportunities, especially for the poor and vulnerable.

The Gambia Essential Health Services Strengthening Project with $30 million in financing, aims to improve the quality and utilization of essential health services and bolster public health preparedness.

The Digital Transformation for Africa/Western Africa Regional Digital Integration Program – Series of Projects 1 with a $50 million allocation, is building a competitive, secure, and integrated digital economy through national and regional investments.

The Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa Project with $30 million in financing, seeks to strengthen the foundations of the national statistical system.

The $40 million Inclusive and Resilient Agricultural Value Chains Development Project aims to boost productivity, climate resilience and agribusiness development across rice, horticulture, cashew, and poultry value chains.

The Tourism Diversification and Resilience Project is promoting sustainable tourism by enhancing climate resilience, supporting MSMEs, and improving competitiveness through digital innovation.

The West Africa Coastal Areas Resilience Investment Project 2 (WACA ResIP 2) addresses disaster risk, flood protection, and sustainable urban infrastructure, supporting The Gambia’s climate adaptation goals.

The $52.6 million Gambia Infrastructure Project approved in 2025, aims to improve access to climate‑resilient transport and energy infrastructure through the construction of new roads, expansion of rural electrification, and upgrades to critical power systems.

The Gambia Public Administration Modernization for Citizen Centric Service Delivery with $47.7 million in financing seeks to strengthen domestic resource mobilization, improve financial reporting, advance human resource management, and promote citizen engagement.

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The current Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the period 2022-2026 is aligned with the country’s Recovery Focused National Development Plan (2023-2027) and was developed in consultation with government, civil society, private sector stakeholders, and development partners.

It is anchored in two cross-cutting principles: accelerate cross-sectoral digital transformation; and empower women and girls and focuses on accelerating the transition out of fragility through three priorities:

• Strengthening Transparency, Accountability, and Effectiveness in Governance to support the efforts to improve the transparency, accountability, and effectiveness of public administration and to provide room in the government’s budget for productive investments in infrastructure and human capital.
• Enabling Inclusive and Resilient Private Sector-Driven Job Creation to support efforts to create an enabling business environment that fuels job creation by investing in infrastructure, strengthening the role of commercial agriculture, boosting the tourism sector, and increasing urban, coastal, and climate resilience.
• Enhancing Human Capital Investments to Develop a Productive Workforce to support efforts to improve the quality of and access to essential healthcare, expand social protection services, enhance the quality of education, and explore ways to improve the skills and employability of women and youth.

The World Bank Group’s portfolio is driving inclusive growth and resilience by supporting governance reforms, human capital development, infrastructure expansion, and climate adaptation. Currently, the active portfolio comprises eight national projects totaling $583.65 million, plus several regional initiatives.

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