The Gambia

The Gambia is the smallest country on mainland Africa. Defined by the Gambia River, which flows east to west, the river shapes the country’s geography, creating fertile plains and supporting rich ecosystems that are central to the national economy. The country is surrounded by Senegal, except for its Atlantic coastline, and has a population of approximately 2.5 million. Covering just 10,700 square kilometers, The Gambia is one of Africa’s most densely populated countries, with 176 people per square kilometer. More than half of the population (57%) live in urban and peri-urban areas.

Political Context

The 2016 presidential election marked the end of 22 years of autocratic rule under Yahya Jammeh, ushering in a new era with President Adama Barrow assuming office in 2017. Re-elected in 2021, Barrow’s administration has been navigating a complex post-dictatorship transition focused on democratic consolidation and institutional reform. A cornerstone of this transition has been constitutional reform. However, efforts to replace the 1997 Constitution have repeatedly stalled. A revised draft introduced in July 2025 was rejected by the National Assembly, echoing a similar outcome in 2020. The next presidential election is scheduled for December 5, 2026.

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Economic growth is projected to remain robust at 5.3 % (3.1% per capita), down from 5.7% (3.4% per capita), as higher imports and lower agricultural production weigh on growth. Industry and services, notably tourism, where arrivals rose 5.4% to 120,713 in H1 2026 will support growth. Despite robust remittances and tourism earnings, the spillovers of current global conflicts are expected to weaken public and private demand. Growth is projected at 5.2% (3.0% per capita) in 2027–2028, supported by expansion. The outlook assumes favorable rainfall, adequate fertilizer access, sustained tourism growth, and completion of public infrastructure projects.

Inflation fell from 7.6% in June to 7.0% in July 2026 as food prices declined, while annual average inflation is projected to moderate from 7.9% last year to 7.5%. Tourism-related incomes and remittances are expected to reduce extreme poverty from 21.6% in 2025 to 21.1% in 2026.

The fiscal deficit fell to 1.7% of GDP in H1 2026 from 3.1% a year earlier, reflecting expenditure cuts. It is projected to fall to 1.5% of GDP in 2026, from 4.7% in 2025, as expenditure declines by 2.8 percentage - points to 24.8 percent of GDP. Public debt fell to 64.1% of GDP in H1 2026, from 65.5% a year earlier. It is projected to decrease to 67.8% of GDP in 2026, from 76.2% in 2025. The Gambia remains at high risk of debt distress.

The current account deficit widened to 2.4% of GDP in H1 2026, owing to higher fuel prices. It is projected to widen to 5.2% of GDP in 2026, from 3.8% in 2025, as imports rise.

The Central Bank maintained its policy rate at 14% in August, after a 200-basis-point cut in February. The banking sector remains stable, with capital and liquidity ratios above requirements and non-performing loans declining to 7.9% in June 2026 from 8.9% a year earlier.

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The WA-REMP MPA Phase II: Regional Access Increase and Sustainable Energy Project, approved in June 2026 with $50 million allocated to The Gambia, aims to achieve universal electricity access by connecting over 565 unelectrified communities and developing a regional-scale solar power plant.

The $81.65 million Resilience, Inclusion, Skills, and Equity Project increases job-relevant skills of young people and income-generating opportunities for the vulnerable.

The $50 million Western Africa Regional Digital Integration Program – SOP1 is building a competitive, secure, and integrated digital economy.

The $30 million Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa Project strengthens the national statistical system.

The $108 million Inclusive and Resilient Agricultural Value Chains Development Project boosts productivity, climate resilience, and agribusiness development across rice, horticulture, cashew, and poultry value chains.

The $68 million Tourism Diversification and Resilience Project promotes sustainable tourism, supports MSMEs, and improves competitiveness through digital innovation.

The $25 million SWEDD+ Project advances gender equality and empowers women and adolescent girls by expanding access to health services, education, skills, and economic opportunities.

The West Africa Coastal Areas Resilience Investment Project 2 ($45 million) addresses disaster risk, flood protection, and sustainable urban infrastructure to support climate adaptation.

The $52.6 million Gambia Infrastructure Project (GIP) improves climate-resilient transport and energy infrastructure through roads, rural electrification, and power system upgrades.

The $47.7 million Gambia Public Administration Modernization Project (PforR) strengthens domestic resource mobilization, financial reporting, human resource management, and citizen engagement. It is the only PforR project in the portfolio.

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The current Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for the period 2022-2026 is aligned with the country’s Recovery Focused National Development Plan (2023-2027) and was developed in consultation with government, civil society, private sector stakeholders, and development partners. A new succeeding CPF is currently under preparation with board approval scheduled for Q4.

It is anchored in two cross-cutting principles: accelerate cross-sectoral digital transformation; and empower women and girls and focuses on accelerating the transition out of fragility through three priorities:

• Strengthening Transparency, Accountability, and Effectiveness in Governance to support the efforts to improve the transparency, accountability, and effectiveness of public administration and to provide room in the government’s budget for productive investments in infrastructure and human capital.
• Enabling Inclusive and Resilient Private Sector-Driven Job Creation to support efforts to create an enabling business environment that fuels job creation by investing in infrastructure, strengthening the role of commercial agriculture, boosting the tourism sector, and increasing urban, coastal, and climate resilience.
• Enhancing Human Capital Investments to Develop a Productive Workforce to support efforts to improve the quality of and access to essential healthcare, expand social protection services, enhance the quality of education, and explore ways to improve the skills and employability of women and youth.

The World Bank Group’s portfolio is supporting The Gambia’s development agenda through investments in governance reforms, human capital development, infrastructure and energy, climate resilience and economic transformation. The active portfolio totals US$728.95 million and is financed entirely through grant resources. It comprises five national investment projects valued at $357.95 million, two Development Policy Operations (DPOs) totaling $105 million, and six regional operations with a combined allocation of $266 million. While the overall portfolio reflects the full scale of World Bank support to the country, investment and policy-based operations are monitored separately for implementation and performance reporting purposes.

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