The macro-modeling team in the Economic Policy Global Department delivers macro data and provides global or regional perspectives, projections, and training. The macro-modeling team employs state-of-the-art macroeconomic models as analytical mechanisms developed to replicate the operation of the international or individual country's economy. These macroeconomic models scrutinize the dynamics of critical economic indicators like GDP, inflation, exchange rate, unemployment, sectoral output, and private consumption.
Providing macroeconomic forecasts informs policymakers and organizations about the risks and opportunities of various policies or strategic choices, hence aiding in the planning of major macroeconomic events.
By aiding economic planning on different time horizons, ranging from medium to longer term, macroeconomic models pursue three main objectives:
Comprehending the past and present
Forecasting various economic indicators
Assessing alternative hypothetical scenarios
Upon demand, the macro-modeling team provides insights primarily based on four families of macroeconomic models:
MFMod
MFMod is a collection of standardized country models primarily used for the Macro Poverty Outlook report. These macro-structural models follow the classic New-Keynesian approach with well-defined cross-country trade, remittances, and commodity interlinkages. The models are operated for projecting and forecasting in-country or global simulations.
MFMod Standalone
MFMod Standalone are highly customizable independent macro-fiscal economic models of individual countries. Suitable for transfer to Ministries of Finance and central banks, the models' cores are derived from MFMod and hence are macro-structural. While these models are most suitable for cyclical analysis, including medium-term budgeting, they can also be run for long-term analysis.
MFMod-GJ
MFMod-Growth and Jobs (MFMod-GJ) is a highly accessible macro-structural country model focused on the supply-side drivers of long-term growth, designed for easy transfer to clients. The model integrates four mutually consistent components: top-down production, investment and savings, demographics, and structural change. This structure enables users to build transparent and coherent growth narratives. While tailored for long-term baseline development, MFMod-GJ also supports scenario analysis on technology, structural transformation, and policy choices, providing a clear basis for forward-looking dialogue on jobs and growth.
CGE models
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models are customized either as a general standalone tool for transfer to national authorities or to prepare reports analyzing specific questions determined by the client (national authority or WBG country team). For CGE analysis, different frameworks can be used, including MAMS, Linkage, MANAGE, Envisage, or CGEBox. These models can analyze major policies or long-term global trends, such as tax policy, long-term demographic developments, climate change, and energy reform.