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00:02 Hi everyone,

00:03 we're gonna get started.

00:04 We're really excited to have Sieta Minahova,

00:06 uh,

00:06 give

00:08 an overview talk.

00:09 So,

00:09 you know,

00:09 kind of the state of play of mobile data

00:12 and what its role is in global development research,

00:16 um,

00:16 and,

00:17 uh,

00:17 yeah,

00:18 so super excited to have Svita.

00:24 All right.

00:25 Hi,

00:26 everyone.

00:26 Um,

00:27 hope everyone had a nice lunch.

00:29 Um,

00:29 I'm really excited to be here today and to have a chance to give the state of play on

00:34 mobile phone data in development research.

00:36 And

00:37 I guess we'll wait a minute to get the slides up.

00:40 They come a little closer oh

00:42 yeah.

00:45 Mhm.

00:46 Yeah,

00:48 yeah,

00:48 yeah.

00:50 Uh.

00:53 All right,

00:54 perfect.

00:57 All right,

00:57 so,

00:57 uh,

00:57 as we've already heard today,

00:59 um,

00:59 there's a huge amount of data that is available worldwide,

01:03 um,

01:03 especially generated in the last two years,

01:05 and much of it coming from the over 8 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide.

01:11 This provides a really important opportunity both

01:13 for research and for policy again,

01:15 as we've seen through the presentations today.

01:18 Now,

01:18 in terms of types of data,

01:20 we've seen a lot of examples.

01:21 Um,

01:22 we have data generated through call detailed records or metadata.

01:26 So those are the observations that every single

01:28 phone generates when you make a call,

01:30 receive a text message.

01:31 We also have data coming from smartphones,

01:33 from mobile app content,

01:35 as well as from mobile surveys.

01:37 Now focusing on the passively collected data,

01:40 so GPS and the mobile phone metadata,

01:43 the GPS data can provide us more accurate spatial granularity.

01:46 We saw some really great visualizations in the last session,

01:50 um,

01:50 and also it can be easier to access through

01:53 global companies like Facebook or through companies like Google.

01:57 We're able to get data across a number of countries,

02:01 but we also need to recognize the limitations and where we are today.

02:04 And the situation is that smartphones are still um.

02:07 Not widely used

02:09 in low income settings and so if we're using this data,

02:11 it's really only capturing the very high

02:14 income populations in some of these developing countries

02:17 and um while on the other hand,

02:19 when we use mobile phone metadata that's able

02:22 to capture information from any type of phone.

02:25 And that will also include smartphones

02:27 and so we're able to capture a much larger portion of the population.

02:31 So when we're thinking about setting up policies that affect the entire country,

02:35 it's really important to think about data that can allow us to

02:38 understand what is happening for the,

02:41 for as much of the population as possible in that country.

02:44 And for that reason,

02:45 I'll be focusing today on specifically mobile phone metadata.

02:48 I could go on for hours about all the different types of data.

02:51 I'm really excited about all those sources,

02:53 um,

02:54 but I'll keep it to,

02:55 to this one specific type,

02:57 and I'll start out giving a very brief overview of some of the different uses,

03:00 and I'll spend most of the time talking about

03:03 what are the challenges that we have,

03:05 uh,

03:05 in terms of being able to actually mainstream the

03:08 use of this data in policy and research.

03:12 So what we've already seen again a lot of examples today they're really exciting.

03:15 We're gonna continue to see more examples in the afternoon,

03:18 but to give you a brief overview,

03:20 we've seen this type of uh work and and data used in economic development,

03:24 developing national statistics like poverty

03:27 or social protection.

03:28 We've also seen this in financial services,

03:31 um,

03:32 through the development of CRIS,

03:34 uh,

03:34 of

03:35 uh credit risk models,

03:36 um.

03:37 Uh,

03:38 one of the first uses I would say is,

03:40 um,

03:40 in the use of health and looking at spread of disease such as malaria,

03:44 and also in disaster planning,

03:46 urban planning.

03:47 So,

03:47 in the next session,

03:48 we're gonna be talking more about transport,

03:50 and also a lot of other new uses like food security,

03:53 um,

03:54 looking at crime,

03:55 real estate,

03:56 so a lot of exciting ways and opportunities to apply this data.

04:00 Now I won't go into details because

04:02 again we've been seeing that throughout the sessions,

04:04 but what I want to really highlight

04:06 is this transition that has happened,

04:08 going from academia

04:10 into the public policy sphere.

04:13 So when this work,

04:14 this type of work first started back in 2008,

04:17 1 of the first papers

04:19 was looking at human mobility in a very theoretical way.

04:23 As we move into 2012,

04:25 we now start to see this data applied to development pilots,

04:29 especially through the data for development challenges that

04:32 were done through Orange in 2012 in Cote d'Ivoire

04:35 and then 2014 in Senegal,

04:38 a much larger.

04:38 Larger um research community was exposed to this type of data

04:42 and could apply to different challenges

04:44 so that's actually where I first got involved was in 2014 when I had um the ability to

04:49 um work with the data from Senegal to look at spread of malaria

04:54 in the country and so it was a really

04:55 exciting opportunity to bring on a lot of researchers

04:59 and to get people exposed to working with this data.

05:01 So I'll definitely say those sorts of um opportunities are fantastic

05:05 to increase the community that is working with the data.

05:09 We then move um further into into kind of

05:12 a larger application that was happening in real time,

05:15 which was the Ebola crisis.

05:16 And when Ebola hit,

05:17 there was a commentary out saying we can use CDR data,

05:20 we can use this type of new data to understand mobility

05:24 and to help us actually decrease the spread of Ebola.

05:27 In West Africa

05:29 unfortunately we were not there yet so there

05:32 was some historical data used at the time

05:34 but really most of the analysis happened after the the crisis and um

05:39 afterwards in in 2018 and so it was really much more

05:42 retrospect uh uh retrospective.

05:46 And now,

05:46 um,

05:47 in 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic

05:50 we've seen that the applications of this data in real time so

05:53 it's really exciting to see this transformation going from the very theoretical

05:57 to actually having these data in countries like Ghana,

06:00 The Gambia,

06:01 all across Europe

06:03 that allow us to see in real time

06:05 what is happening in terms of mobility,

06:07 how is the disease spreading,

06:09 and also how are the policies that are being implemented working.

06:14 But I,

06:15 the,

06:15 the next step,

06:16 so now we've gone from,

06:17 from academia to these really successful public policy examples.

06:20 The next step is to see how do we mainstream this.

06:24 So how do we take this from having

06:26 examples in one country and another country to

06:28 actually being able to work with this data

06:31 across the whole world.

06:33 And so that's where I'll talk about some of the challenges that I face and,

06:36 and the teams that I've worked with have faced.

06:38 Um,

06:38 I,

06:39 I'll say that these are not all of the challenges,

06:41 but hopefully they give you a bit of a sense of some of the different

06:44 areas we need to be thinking about if we really want to mainstream this data.

06:50 So the first is around data access and,

06:52 and this has actually come up a little bit today in some of the questions.

06:56 So,

06:56 during the COVID-19 pandemic,

06:58 a group of us here at the bank across a

06:59 number of departments came together to see if we can

07:03 access this data around the world in order to be

07:05 able to support our colleagues with policy um implications around

07:09 uh mobility.

07:10 And so we looked into accessing this data.

07:12 In over 40 countries

07:14 we use a lot of different models,

07:16 so looking to reach out to

07:18 mobile network operators,

07:19 looking,

07:20 reaching out to regulators,

07:21 reaching out to third party organizations,

07:23 academics that already had access

07:25 and trying to see how can we actually

07:27 put this data to action right away.

07:30 And one of the first things we realized is that just going to the supplier,

07:34 so that the providers of the data is not enough.

07:36 It's really a large ecosystem where you have the suppliers,

07:40 so that's the mobile network operator,

07:42 where you need to have the technical capacity,

07:44 you potentially need to have the funding.

07:46 And the legal agreements in place,

07:48 but you also have the demand side,

07:49 so you need the government to actually want to use this data to want to apply this data

07:54 um in order for them to provide you with the enabling environment

07:57 and for that you need a lot of technical awareness and capacity.

08:01 And finally then there's a data translator so that's where we

08:04 were coming in and a lot of other organizations around the world

08:07 were coming in to see how they can help go from the raw data that that's at the MNO

08:12 to the actual policy analysis and implications that the government can use.

08:18 Now,

08:18 in our case,

08:19 as I mentioned,

08:19 we started out with these 41

08:21 um country cases,

08:23 and we slowly see all of the different challenges that came along the way.

08:26 So we went from those 41 cases down to 37.

08:29 It's 4 of those we decided were politically too

08:32 sensitive to actually try to pursue this data.

08:34 It was,

08:34 it was just too dangerous to

08:36 um try to work with this data in certain settings.

08:39 From those 37,

08:40 we then found that in 21 cases,

08:42 we were not able to get permission from the MNO to work with their data.

08:46 But then even in the 16 cases where the MNO said yes go ahead here's our data take it

08:51 we actually were not able to in 6 of

08:54 those cases because we still needed the government permissions.

08:57 So just because the company

08:59 is potentially willing to share the data,

09:01 um,

09:01 that doesn't necessarily mean that we can access it

09:03 because in many countries there might be regulation in

09:06 place or even the MNO might want to make sure that the government is on board before.

09:10 They actually will share the data

09:12 and so in the end there were 9 successful cases where we were able to access the data.

09:17 Now that's still quite a success given that usually even just

09:21 doing one of these types of cases can take years.

09:23 Um,

09:24 so I would still say that

09:25 that we've made quite a lot of progress in the space,

09:28 but I think this just illustrates

09:29 the amount of time and effort and all of

09:31 the various challenges that come along the way.

09:34 And one final item uh I'll mention is with the um cost as well.

09:37 So there was one case where cost was specifically prohibitive,

09:40 but even the 21 cases um where the MNO was not able to provide us the data,

09:46 potentially cost may be an underlying factor where maybe if we had

09:50 funding or there was a business model,

09:51 they may have been more willing to actually share the data.

09:55 And so there were a number of broad obstacles

09:57 that we were able to highlight through this example.

09:59 So I think there's a lot of learning that also came

10:01 out of this that I hope can be applied more broadly,

10:04 and I'll just highlight a couple of areas

10:06 which are the need for investment in skills,

10:09 technology,

10:09 legal frameworks,

10:10 and trust.

10:11 So you really need trust between

10:13 all of those stakeholders that are part of the ecosystem.

10:16 And moving into the trust piece,

10:18 one of the key pieces is on the data privacy.

10:21 In every single conversation that we had,

10:23 whether with an MNO,

10:24 with the government,

10:26 or anyone,

10:26 data privacy was one of the first things that always came up.

10:30 And we've seen this more recently in the media that

10:33 um data privacy has been um has been brought up in a number of settings so

10:38 John Oliver,

10:39 a comedian,

10:39 and a few weeks ago was in the press as

10:42 um he wound up uh being able to access data that

10:47 is technically anonymous but could very much be

10:49 linked potentially to unique special individuals in Congress,

10:53 um,

10:53 and so there was a risk that that.

10:55 That could reveal sensitive information about these people

10:58 and this is just one example,

11:00 but I think it's um one of the big

11:02 risks when working with this type of mobile phone data

11:05 and with call detail records,

11:07 especially where

11:08 even if you anonymize um the data in terms of removing

11:12 identifiers,

11:13 removing the phone number,

11:14 there's still a very high risk that you

11:16 can identify unique people from their mobility patterns.

11:20 And so there's a number of models that have been developed to try to address this,

11:24 um,

11:24 for example,

11:25 limited release where you're only releasing parts of the data and you potentially

11:29 manipulate it to make it less likely that you can identify individuals.

11:33 You can work with pre-computed indicators,

11:36 um,

11:36 and so then only aggregated indicators,

11:39 for example,

11:39 the total number of calls an individual makes

11:41 or the total number of trips between locations

11:45 is shared.

11:45 You could have remote access,

11:47 so where you don't actually remove the data from the telecom company.

11:52 Instead you can VPN in

11:53 and work with the data there and that's important because

11:56 just transferring the data can lead to data breaches,

11:59 so we need to be careful of that.

12:01 And then also a question answer model

12:02 which is similar to the pre-computed indicators,

12:04 basically

12:05 you have a query say,

12:06 I would like to know mobility from A to B,

12:08 and then that query comes out.

12:11 Additionally,

12:11 especially,

12:12 um,

12:13 in,

12:13 um,

12:14 Josh Blumenstock's lab and,

12:15 and,

12:15 um,

12:16 in that team they're working quite a lot on looking

12:18 at differential privacy which I think is an exciting area,

12:21 um,

12:22 in terms of being able to work with this data in a way that is

12:26 safe and that allows more researchers to have access

12:29 and of course best practices like limiting the access to.

12:33 A small number of individuals,

12:35 um,

12:35 also limiting the amount of data that we use because

12:38 as researchers we always want more data,

12:40 at least I always am,

12:41 I'm looking for more data,

12:42 but I think when working with sensitive data,

12:44 it is important to be much more careful and,

12:46 and recognize

12:47 what are the variables we actually need for the analysis we want

12:51 and try to limit the,

12:52 the data to,

12:53 to those necessary variables.

12:55 Data storage processing,

12:57 everything should be happening

12:58 in secure environments,

13:00 and we could think about,

13:01 especially if this is something that's kind of done broadly at a government level,

13:05 are there ways in which we could actually obtain consent?

13:08 So the way that a lot of GPS,

13:09 um,

13:10 data

13:11 will ask for consent in order for the GPS data to be shared or,

13:13 or companies that use GPS data will ask for consent,

13:16 we could think about whether such a model may be possible even with CDR data.

13:22 And so again,

13:23 uh,

13:23 some things I'd like to highlight with privacy is that it's

13:26 really important to invest in the infrastructure and the capacity,

13:30 especially for things like remote access.

13:32 It's really important to be able to have that technology

13:35 at the MNO and to have the capacity within the

13:37 MNO to create indicators that then can be shared,

13:40 as well as also thinking about regulation more broadly

13:43 that can be standardized across countries.

13:48 A third area that I think is quite important is around data quality.

13:51 So when we work with these types of data,

13:53 we need to remember

13:55 they're not made for researchers,

13:57 they're for business purposes.

13:58 They're made for billing,

14:00 and so oftentimes there can be issues with the data and

14:02 we can't actually necessarily just take it at face value that.

14:05 Um,

14:06 we can interpret everything as being behavior.

14:09 Um,

14:09 I particularly want to highlight three areas that I've

14:12 seen basically in every data set I've worked with.

14:15 One is issues with completeness,

14:17 so sometimes,

14:18 especially if data is being transferred,

14:19 literally entire days of data might just go missing.

14:22 Or you might have a location where for some reason there's no data.

14:26 And if you don't notice that,

14:27 if you don't flag that,

14:28 if you don't account for that,

14:30 then you may mistakenly wind up aggregating the data

14:33 and producing analytics that you share with the government

14:36 that then actually are not what is happening on the ground.

14:39 Very similarly to that,

14:40 you also need to be watching out for anomalies.

14:43 So,

14:43 the completeness is a little bit easier to see,

14:45 so you can see right away in the figure that there's an entire day of data missing.

14:49 But you can also oftentimes have situations where a

14:51 tower goes down for a couple of hours,

14:53 so there's still some data,

14:54 but it's going to be much lower.

14:56 And what's that,

14:57 what that's going to mean is that

14:58 in that in that specific tower there's going to be

15:01 fewer observations and then maybe in the neighboring

15:03 tower there's going to be more observations.

15:05 So again,

15:05 if you don't notice that this is actually a data.

15:08 Anomaly in terms of how the data is generated,

15:10 then you might assume that means there's fewer people

15:13 in one area and maybe more movement into another area

15:16 and if that interpretation is then communicated with the government,

15:19 then they might wind up taking policy action based on something that's coming from

15:23 the data and how it's generated and not actually what is happening on the ground.

15:27 And finally,

15:29 something that that's really important is using other

15:31 data sources as well to check for consistency.

15:34 So we have

15:35 so much survey data and other types of data that that is

15:38 available for us to be able to cross-check and to make sure that

15:41 what we're seeing makes sense.

15:43 Um,

15:43 we can also crosscheck within the data.

15:46 So are the number of users making sense

15:47 compared to the number of observations per day.

15:50 All of these types of things need to be integrated,

15:53 and we need to invest in the capacity and standard

15:56 code to be able to do these sorts of real-time checks

15:59 so that the policymakers can trust the

16:01 data and the analytics that they're receiving

16:04 and can take action knowing that

16:06 what is coming in is something that that is actually indicative

16:09 of the behaviors and what is happening on the ground.

16:13 And then finally,

16:14 a 4th area I want to highlight is around bias in the representativeness of the data.

16:18 Again,

16:19 this probably comes up just as often as privacy does in these conversations.

16:24 And as,

16:24 as we know,

16:25 and,

16:25 and we've touched upon their important limitations in terms of who is covered.

16:29 So,

16:29 obviously,

16:30 anyone without a mobile phone is not going to be in this data.

16:33 And so if we're thinking about national policies,

16:36 we need to be careful in terms of who is potentially excluded.

16:39 From those policies if they're only based on

16:42 using mobile phone data,

16:43 even within those users that are in the data,

16:45 there might be differences between

16:48 different socioeconomic groups or men and women

16:50 in terms of how they use mobile phones

16:52 and so we need to be cognizant of that.

16:55 There could be differences in terms of geography,

16:57 so

16:58 some uh areas might have more mobile phone towers than others,

17:01 and that's going to affect them,

17:03 um,

17:03 the measures that we're able to get in those different areas.

17:06 And then of course,

17:07 if we're only working with one provider,

17:09 then that's going to limit

17:11 what we're able to say.

17:12 And if that provider,

17:13 for example,

17:13 tends to be used by more higher income individuals

17:16 or they have coverage only in certain geographic areas,

17:20 then that links back to some of these other issues as well.

17:23 In addition to

17:24 the sort of representativeness,

17:25 which I think is kind of the first thing that people think about,

17:28 another really important area that I also think is,

17:30 is really interesting to study is around

17:33 the changes in the user base.

17:35 So

17:35 oftentimes the policies and events that we want to study

17:39 will not only affect the behaviors we're interested in.

17:42 So for example,

17:43 we're interested in seeing how mobility changes during COVID-19.

17:46 But it can also affect the data generating process.

17:49 What I mean by that is that how people use

17:52 their phones might be a function of what is happening.

17:57 So one example,

17:59 one example of that is

18:01 looking at the number of trips taken early on the pandemic in one country,

18:06 we see that there is an increase over time from January to March.

18:11 But then when we plot the number of observations per subscriber,

18:15 we see a very,

18:16 very similar pattern.

18:17 We see how correlated movement is with the number of observations per subscriber.

18:22 So what that means is that

18:24 if an individual is now making more phone calls,

18:27 then we're more likely to see them in more locations.

18:29 And so that,

18:30 so as we see more movement happening,

18:32 the question is,

18:33 is that actually more movement indicative of people taking more trips,

18:37 or are we just seeing them in more locations because now they're making.

18:40 Making more phone calls

18:42 and if we can't distinguish between the two,

18:44 then it's very hard to know

18:45 what is actually happening and what that should mean for policymakers

18:50 and this is actually quite common because we

18:52 know that the way people use their phones

18:54 is affected by what is happening.

18:55 Um,

18:56 there was a presentation earlier that was

18:58 actually about that in terms of the number of contacts that people have

19:01 might change because of what is happening on the ground

19:04 and so we need to be thinking about that and thinking about

19:06 how we can factor that in when working with these data.

19:11 And,

19:11 and finally,

19:12 uh,

19:12 another point related to that is that as we start to use the data for policy,

19:17 it can actually lead to incentives for people to change their behavior.

19:21 So if we're in a situation where someone,

19:24 uh,

19:24 where we're developing an algorithm

19:26 that will then decide if someone receives a cash transfer that's based on.

19:30 Calls and networks and

19:32 we say that someone with fewer calls and fewer network contacts means

19:35 that they're lower income and so then they're going to receive a transfer

19:38 well then that person is going to make less calls

19:42 and is going to call less people if they figure

19:44 out that those are the types of indicators that are

19:46 being used to decide if they get a cash transfer.

19:50 There's a lot of really interesting work in the space,

19:52 especially

19:53 new research by,

19:54 uh,

19:54 Bjork,

19:54 Gern Bloom and Stock and Knight

19:56 that looks at this and actually develops,

19:58 um,

19:58 algorithms that can be,

20:00 um,

20:01 that can be robust to this type of manipulation.

20:03 And so

20:04 it's really important again as we start to use this data more for policy

20:08 to be thinking about

20:10 these sorts of changes in behavior that might happen because of the

20:13 actions that we're taking in terms of how we're using the data.

20:17 And so in terms of data limitations,

20:19 I think the main areas we need to invest is first in phone

20:23 access and so this has been brought up a few times today.

20:25 I think that's where there's an opportunity for

20:28 um for projects for governments to invest in

20:31 having more people actually be part of the

20:33 network and providing them with mobile phones.

20:35 And we also need additional research into potential biases

20:38 and it it's um likely that those biases will actually

20:43 potentially evolve as we start to use the data more for

20:45 policy so we need continuous research that is trying to understand

20:49 what is happening on the ground and and how things are evolving.

20:54 So where are we now?

20:55 This is just um uh kind of a quick map looking at the countries that

21:00 um the GSMA has highlighted had uh wound up using

21:04 this type of data during the COVID-19 uh pandemic.

21:08 This isn't inclusive of all countries,

21:10 but it gives you a sense,

21:11 and we see that

21:12 there's a lot of usage in Europe,

21:14 and it really did get kind of.

21:16 Mainstreamed um

21:17 in Europe but very much not so in Africa where I would say

21:21 there's actually a lot more potential because there's so much less data available

21:26 to understand what is happening on the ground and so

21:29 while there's been

21:30 a lot of success during the COVID-19 pandemic,

21:33 I would say we're still far from actually

21:35 mainstreaming the use of this data more broadly.

21:38 And some of the things that have helped again during

21:40 the pandemic is especially focusing on developing open source tools,

21:45 um,

21:46 things like the mobility analytics task force task force work here at the bank,

21:51 um,

21:52 where we've been working to develop open algorithms

21:54 and trainings that can be available for.

21:56 For

21:57 anyone to,

21:58 to use in their own context,

22:00 um,

22:00 a lot of work by Flowminder for,

22:02 for years,

22:03 especially the development of Flow Kit which can allow for

22:06 MNOs to process this data on their own servers.

22:10 The use of open software like Docker and Spark

22:12 can make it possible for

22:15 individuals around the world to be able to use these tools

22:17 and to be able to work with this type of data.

22:20 And all this can help to facilitate access by providing

22:23 the uh the needed algorithms to to do this work.

22:26 It can help to address privacy,

22:28 especially

22:29 if those algorithms and those tool kits are made so that

22:32 the data can be analyzed at the mobile network operator.

22:35 It can help standardize the production of the indicators

22:39 and also ensure quality.

22:40 If we embed

22:42 quality checks in all these algorithms and these tool kits

22:45 and there's a large number of organizations that are working in this space,

22:49 um,

22:50 I've just listed a few,

22:52 um,

22:52 but there's there's a community that's been pushing this

22:54 work and and trying to work together and I think

22:57 that we're in a really great spot to kind of keep pushing that forward.

23:02 So then where do we go?

23:04 Well,

23:04 I think there's definitely an opportunity for us.

23:08 And again,

23:08 we've seen this really important transition

23:11 happen where we've gone from the theoretical

23:14 to actual applications on the right here,

23:16 this is actually a farmer that uh was a beneficiary of the program in Togo that

23:20 Emily talked about this morning

23:22 and,

23:22 and so it's really exciting to see that we're now

23:24 actually putting this data to practice in nationwide programs.

23:29 Nevertheless,

23:30 more still needs to be done to mainstream mobile data,

23:33 and I'm not going to do another call to action.

23:36 Uh,

23:36 we've had many of those,

23:38 um,

23:38 and we've actually seen a lot of action,

23:40 so we've seen a lot of work happening during the pandemic,

23:43 and I think what is needed now

23:45 is that we actually have investment

23:48 in sustainable,

23:49 uh,

23:50 work with this data and,

23:51 um,

23:52 in sustainable work to enable the environment.

23:54 To make this happen in the types of um data access policies legislation regulation

24:00 that is needed to do this on a wide scale

24:03 as well as a lot of investment in the

24:05 capacity and training of government officials of um MNO operators

24:10 of others so everyone that's part of this ecosystem

24:14 is needed to uh in order for this to move forward as as we saw earlier.

24:19 And in addition,

24:20 I think we need to continue with the high quality research we're seeing here today.

24:24 As we've seen this work

24:26 does require quite a bit of technical expertise.

24:28 We need to be careful also in terms of

24:31 the analysis that we're generating and,

24:32 and how those are being applied to policy.

24:35 And so as we hopefully do move into mainstreaming this data,

24:39 I think it's.

24:39 It's also important to remember that policymakers will need to continue working

24:43 with researchers

24:44 so that we can trust the data that we're producing.

24:47 We can then also evaluate the results of the applications of those data and we can

24:52 see how we can develop more effective systems that make use of this type of data.

24:57 So I'll pause there

24:58 if you have any questions.

25:05 I don't know if there's time for questions.

25:09 All right.

25:10 True.

25:17 There's any questions in

25:22 Yeah.

25:25 Think people can just go to the mic.

25:30 Thank you so much for this um wonderful presentation

25:34 um so I think you touched upon really important issues of data privacy

25:40 and

25:41 you know you are making an agreement or

25:44 you know creating consensus between government and.

25:47 And the organizations like World Bank,

25:50 uh,

25:50 for

25:51 broader public use

25:53 of,

25:54 um,

25:54 phone data,

25:55 which is difficult to access.

25:57 But

25:57 even,

25:59 you know,

25:59 getting

26:00 permission from government

26:01 and,

26:02 you know,

26:02 the

26:04 network carriers

26:06 does that represent

26:07 citizens' agreement

26:09 to use their data.

26:11 Just like in the past,

26:13 there was a Kenyan government,

26:15 you know,

26:15 spying on.

26:16 Uh,

26:18 So there's are issues about,

26:19 you know,

26:19 whether foreign government or research institute

26:23 like Harvard Public Health,

26:25 um,

26:25 spying on

26:26 malaria data

26:28 on Kenyan citizens

26:29 and those like

26:31 data sharing agreement

26:33 maybe was only between government and

26:36 You know,

26:37 and the

26:38 university,

26:38 top university in the US.

26:40 So how

26:41 can we,

26:42 you know,

26:42 address this kind of issue?

26:46 Maybe I'll take a couple of questions and then I'll

26:48 address them.

26:48 Yeah.

26:49 Thank you,

26:49 Ms.

26:50 uh,

26:50 Millicheva,

26:50 for your talk.

26:51 Uh,

26:51 I'm wondering if you can talk about the,

26:53 the point where you left off in terms of mainstreaming opportunities.

26:57 How has the bank started,

26:58 uh,

26:59 considering the use of mobile data and operations

27:01 in terms of assisting governments through very pragmatic

27:04 applications with these data sets?

27:08 Great questions.

27:09 Um,

27:09 so starting with the first one on

27:11 privacy,

27:12 um,

27:13 I,

27:13 I mean I,

27:13 I do think that that's an important area where again we need to be.

27:18 Thinking a lot about how do we define

27:21 individual privacy,

27:22 how do we think about

27:23 group privacy,

27:25 um,

27:25 so again in,

27:26 in some of these cases

27:28 if the data can be applied in ways where,

27:31 um,

27:31 we're not actually looking at any individuals,

27:33 we're not spying on any individuals,

27:35 we're looking at group behavior

27:37 similar to,

27:38 um,

27:39 being able to look at,

27:40 um,

27:41 patterns in migration and in census data.

27:44 But I,

27:45 there is a point about,

27:46 you know,

27:46 whether the individual gives their consent for their

27:49 data to even be included in that,

27:51 um,

27:51 in that aggregate work and that's why I

27:52 also suggested that we could think about models

27:55 where people could opt into having their data used,

27:58 um,

27:59 how feasible that is,

28:01 uh,

28:01 is a question,

28:02 um,

28:03 but I think it's,

28:05 it's something where

28:06 there's a lot of different opinions,

28:08 um,

28:09 I've,

28:09 I've talked to him.

28:11 People sort of on on all

28:12 sides of the spectrum in terms of what is considered private data,

28:16 how you even define

28:18 um whether the data is um

28:22 I guess whether it's an individual or not or

28:24 or whether it's anonymized enough that that it's OK to use um so

28:29 I think the community has not reached a consensus and I

28:32 think a lot more discussion will be needed on that.

28:35 In terms of how the bank is moving forward with using this data,

28:38 I think one of the um big areas right now is the social protection space,

28:43 um,

28:44 so work similar to what Emily has,

28:46 uh,

28:46 Emily showed us today in Togo,

28:48 I think it's being um applied in in other settings in other countries,

28:52 and I think there's a lot of exploration in terms of how we can.

28:55 Use this,

28:56 um,

28:56 use this type of data to think about targeting to identify

29:00 poor uh economic areas in a country,

29:02 for example,

29:03 or individuals,

29:05 um,

29:05 and so I think that's one of the areas where there's been a big push within the bank,

29:09 but hopefully there will be a lot more,

29:11 so that's,

29:12 I think,

29:12 you know,

29:12 the.

29:13 The area that that I'm also trying to push and

29:15 it's an area where we need to work across departments,

29:18 so working with the digital development uh global practice in the bank

29:21 with the research um teams working with all the

29:24 different global practices where this data can be applied

29:27 and so it will take quite a lot of effort to move that forward.

29:34 All right.

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transcript
Hi everyone, we're gonna get started. We're really excited to have Sieta Minahova, uh, give an overview talk. So, you know, kind of the state of play of mobile data and what its role is in global development research, um, and, uh, yeah, so super excited to have Svita. All right. Hi, everyone. Um, hope everyone had a nice lunch. Um, I'm really excited to be here today and to have a chance to give the state of play on mobile phone data in development research. And I guess we'll wait a minute to get the slides up. They come a little closer oh yeah. Mhm. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Uh. All right, perfect. All right, so, uh, as we've already heard today, um, there's a huge amount of data that is available worldwide, um, especially generated in the last two years, and much of it coming from the over 8 billion mobile phone subscriptions worldwide. This provides a really important opportunity both for research and for policy again, as we've seen through the presentations today. Now, in terms of types of data, we've seen a lot of examples. Um, we have data generated through call detailed records or metadata. So those are the observations that every single phone generates when you make a call, receive a text message. We also have data coming from smartphones, from mobile app content, as well as from mobile surveys. Now focusing on the passively collected data, so GPS and the mobile phone metadata, the GPS data can provide us more accurate spatial granularity. We saw some really great visualizations in the last session, um, and also it can be easier to access through global companies like Facebook or through companies like Google. We're able to get data across a number of countries, but we also need to recognize the limitations and where we are today. And the situation is that smartphones are still um. Not widely used in low income settings and so if we're using this data, it's really only capturing the very high income populations in some of these developing countries and um while on the other hand, when we use mobile phone metadata that's able to capture information from any type of phone. And that will also include smartphones and so we're able to capture a much larger portion of the population. So when we're thinking about setting up policies that affect the entire country, it's really important to think about data that can allow us to understand what is happening for the, for as much of the population as possible in that country. And for that reason, I'll be focusing today on specifically mobile phone metadata. I could go on for hours about all the different types of data. I'm really excited about all those sources, um, but I'll keep it to, to this one specific type, and I'll start out giving a very brief overview of some of the different uses, and I'll spend most of the time talking about what are the challenges that we have, uh, in terms of being able to actually mainstream the use of this data in policy and research. So what we've already seen again a lot of examples today they're really exciting. We're gonna continue to see more examples in the afternoon, but to give you a brief overview, we've seen this type of uh work and and data used in economic development, developing national statistics like poverty or social protection. We've also seen this in financial services, um, through the development of CRIS, uh, of uh credit risk models, um. Uh, one of the first uses I would say is, um, in the use of health and looking at spread of disease such as malaria, and also in disaster planning, urban planning. So, in the next session, we're gonna be talking more about transport, and also a lot of other new uses like food security, um, looking at crime, real estate, so a lot of exciting ways and opportunities to apply this data. Now I won't go into details because again we've been seeing that throughout the sessions, but what I want to really highlight is this transition that has happened, going from academia into the public policy sphere. So when this work, this type of work first started back in 2008, 1 of the first papers was looking at human mobility in a very theoretical way. As we move into 2012, we now start to see this data applied to development pilots, especially through the data for development challenges that were done through Orange in 2012 in Cote d'Ivoire and then 2014 in Senegal, a much larger. Larger um research community was exposed to this type of data and could apply to different challenges so that's actually where I first got involved was in 2014 when I had um the ability to um work with the data from Senegal to look at spread of malaria in the country and so it was a really exciting opportunity to bring on a lot of researchers and to get people exposed to working with this data. So I'll definitely say those sorts of um opportunities are fantastic to increase the community that is working with the data. We then move um further into into kind of a larger application that was happening in real time, which was the Ebola crisis. And when Ebola hit, there was a commentary out saying we can use CDR data, we can use this type of new data to understand mobility and to help us actually decrease the spread of Ebola. In West Africa unfortunately we were not there yet so there was some historical data used at the time but really most of the analysis happened after the the crisis and um afterwards in in 2018 and so it was really much more retrospect uh uh retrospective. And now, um, in 2020 with the COVID-19 pandemic we've seen that the applications of this data in real time so it's really exciting to see this transformation going from the very theoretical to actually having these data in countries like Ghana, The Gambia, all across Europe that allow us to see in real time what is happening in terms of mobility, how is the disease spreading, and also how are the policies that are being implemented working. But I, the, the next step, so now we've gone from, from academia to these really successful public policy examples. The next step is to see how do we mainstream this. So how do we take this from having examples in one country and another country to actually being able to work with this data across the whole world. And so that's where I'll talk about some of the challenges that I face and, and the teams that I've worked with have faced. Um, I, I'll say that these are not all of the challenges, but hopefully they give you a bit of a sense of some of the different areas we need to be thinking about if we really want to mainstream this data. So the first is around data access and, and this has actually come up a little bit today in some of the questions. So, during the COVID-19 pandemic, a group of us here at the bank across a number of departments came together to see if we can access this data around the world in order to be able to support our colleagues with policy um implications around uh mobility. And so we looked into accessing this data. In over 40 countries we use a lot of different models, so looking to reach out to mobile network operators, looking, reaching out to regulators, reaching out to third party organizations, academics that already had access and trying to see how can we actually put this data to action right away. And one of the first things we realized is that just going to the supplier, so that the providers of the data is not enough. It's really a large ecosystem where you have the suppliers, so that's the mobile network operator, where you need to have the technical capacity, you potentially need to have the funding. And the legal agreements in place, but you also have the demand side, so you need the government to actually want to use this data to want to apply this data um in order for them to provide you with the enabling environment and for that you need a lot of technical awareness and capacity. And finally then there's a data translator so that's where we were coming in and a lot of other organizations around the world were coming in to see how they can help go from the raw data that that's at the MNO to the actual policy analysis and implications that the government can use. Now, in our case, as I mentioned, we started out with these 41 um country cases, and we slowly see all of the different challenges that came along the way. So we went from those 41 cases down to 37. It's 4 of those we decided were politically too sensitive to actually try to pursue this data. It was, it was just too dangerous to um try to work with this data in certain settings. From those 37, we then found that in 21 cases, we were not able to get permission from the MNO to work with their data. But then even in the 16 cases where the MNO said yes go ahead here's our data take it we actually were not able to in 6 of those cases because we still needed the government permissions. So just because the company is potentially willing to share the data, um, that doesn't necessarily mean that we can access it because in many countries there might be regulation in place or even the MNO might want to make sure that the government is on board before. They actually will share the data and so in the end there were 9 successful cases where we were able to access the data. Now that's still quite a success given that usually even just doing one of these types of cases can take years. Um, so I would still say that that we've made quite a lot of progress in the space, but I think this just illustrates the amount of time and effort and all of the various challenges that come along the way. And one final item uh I'll mention is with the um cost as well. So there was one case where cost was specifically prohibitive, but even the 21 cases um where the MNO was not able to provide us the data, potentially cost may be an underlying factor where maybe if we had funding or there was a business model, they may have been more willing to actually share the data. And so there were a number of broad obstacles that we were able to highlight through this example. So I think there's a lot of learning that also came out of this that I hope can be applied more broadly, and I'll just highlight a couple of areas which are the need for investment in skills, technology, legal frameworks, and trust. So you really need trust between all of those stakeholders that are part of the ecosystem. And moving into the trust piece, one of the key pieces is on the data privacy. In every single conversation that we had, whether with an MNO, with the government, or anyone, data privacy was one of the first things that always came up. And we've seen this more recently in the media that um data privacy has been um has been brought up in a number of settings so John Oliver, a comedian, and a few weeks ago was in the press as um he wound up uh being able to access data that is technically anonymous but could very much be linked potentially to unique special individuals in Congress, um, and so there was a risk that that. That could reveal sensitive information about these people and this is just one example, but I think it's um one of the big risks when working with this type of mobile phone data and with call detail records, especially where even if you anonymize um the data in terms of removing identifiers, removing the phone number, there's still a very high risk that you can identify unique people from their mobility patterns. And so there's a number of models that have been developed to try to address this, um, for example, limited release where you're only releasing parts of the data and you potentially manipulate it to make it less likely that you can identify individuals. You can work with pre-computed indicators, um, and so then only aggregated indicators, for example, the total number of calls an individual makes or the total number of trips between locations is shared. You could have remote access, so where you don't actually remove the data from the telecom company. Instead you can VPN in and work with the data there and that's important because just transferring the data can lead to data breaches, so we need to be careful of that. And then also a question answer model which is similar to the pre-computed indicators, basically you have a query say, I would like to know mobility from A to B, and then that query comes out. Additionally, especially, um, in, um, Josh Blumenstock's lab and, and, um, in that team they're working quite a lot on looking at differential privacy which I think is an exciting area, um, in terms of being able to work with this data in a way that is safe and that allows more researchers to have access and of course best practices like limiting the access to. A small number of individuals, um, also limiting the amount of data that we use because as researchers we always want more data, at least I always am, I'm looking for more data, but I think when working with sensitive data, it is important to be much more careful and, and recognize what are the variables we actually need for the analysis we want and try to limit the, the data to, to those necessary variables. Data storage processing, everything should be happening in secure environments, and we could think about, especially if this is something that's kind of done broadly at a government level, are there ways in which we could actually obtain consent? So the way that a lot of GPS, um, data will ask for consent in order for the GPS data to be shared or, or companies that use GPS data will ask for consent, we could think about whether such a model may be possible even with CDR data. And so again, uh, some things I'd like to highlight with privacy is that it's really important to invest in the infrastructure and the capacity, especially for things like remote access. It's really important to be able to have that technology at the MNO and to have the capacity within the MNO to create indicators that then can be shared, as well as also thinking about regulation more broadly that can be standardized across countries. A third area that I think is quite important is around data quality. So when we work with these types of data, we need to remember they're not made for researchers, they're for business purposes. They're made for billing, and so oftentimes there can be issues with the data and we can't actually necessarily just take it at face value that. Um, we can interpret everything as being behavior. Um, I particularly want to highlight three areas that I've seen basically in every data set I've worked with. One is issues with completeness, so sometimes, especially if data is being transferred, literally entire days of data might just go missing. Or you might have a location where for some reason there's no data. And if you don't notice that, if you don't flag that, if you don't account for that, then you may mistakenly wind up aggregating the data and producing analytics that you share with the government that then actually are not what is happening on the ground. Very similarly to that, you also need to be watching out for anomalies. So, the completeness is a little bit easier to see, so you can see right away in the figure that there's an entire day of data missing. But you can also oftentimes have situations where a tower goes down for a couple of hours, so there's still some data, but it's going to be much lower. And what's that, what that's going to mean is that in that in that specific tower there's going to be fewer observations and then maybe in the neighboring tower there's going to be more observations. So again, if you don't notice that this is actually a data. Anomaly in terms of how the data is generated, then you might assume that means there's fewer people in one area and maybe more movement into another area and if that interpretation is then communicated with the government, then they might wind up taking policy action based on something that's coming from the data and how it's generated and not actually what is happening on the ground. And finally, something that that's really important is using other data sources as well to check for consistency. So we have so much survey data and other types of data that that is available for us to be able to cross-check and to make sure that what we're seeing makes sense. Um, we can also crosscheck within the data. So are the number of users making sense compared to the number of observations per day. All of these types of things need to be integrated, and we need to invest in the capacity and standard code to be able to do these sorts of real-time checks so that the policymakers can trust the data and the analytics that they're receiving and can take action knowing that what is coming in is something that that is actually indicative of the behaviors and what is happening on the ground. And then finally, a 4th area I want to highlight is around bias in the representativeness of the data. Again, this probably comes up just as often as privacy does in these conversations. And as, as we know, and, and we've touched upon their important limitations in terms of who is covered. So, obviously, anyone without a mobile phone is not going to be in this data. And so if we're thinking about national policies, we need to be careful in terms of who is potentially excluded. From those policies if they're only based on using mobile phone data, even within those users that are in the data, there might be differences between different socioeconomic groups or men and women in terms of how they use mobile phones and so we need to be cognizant of that. There could be differences in terms of geography, so some uh areas might have more mobile phone towers than others, and that's going to affect them, um, the measures that we're able to get in those different areas. And then of course, if we're only working with one provider, then that's going to limit what we're able to say. And if that provider, for example, tends to be used by more higher income individuals or they have coverage only in certain geographic areas, then that links back to some of these other issues as well. In addition to the sort of representativeness, which I think is kind of the first thing that people think about, another really important area that I also think is, is really interesting to study is around the changes in the user base. So oftentimes the policies and events that we want to study will not only affect the behaviors we're interested in. So for example, we're interested in seeing how mobility changes during COVID-19. But it can also affect the data generating process. What I mean by that is that how people use their phones might be a function of what is happening. So one example, one example of that is looking at the number of trips taken early on the pandemic in one country, we see that there is an increase over time from January to March. But then when we plot the number of observations per subscriber, we see a very, very similar pattern. We see how correlated movement is with the number of observations per subscriber. So what that means is that if an individual is now making more phone calls, then we're more likely to see them in more locations. And so that, so as we see more movement happening, the question is, is that actually more movement indicative of people taking more trips, or are we just seeing them in more locations because now they're making. Making more phone calls and if we can't distinguish between the two, then it's very hard to know what is actually happening and what that should mean for policymakers and this is actually quite common because we know that the way people use their phones is affected by what is happening. Um, there was a presentation earlier that was actually about that in terms of the number of contacts that people have might change because of what is happening on the ground and so we need to be thinking about that and thinking about how we can factor that in when working with these data. And, and finally, uh, another point related to that is that as we start to use the data for policy, it can actually lead to incentives for people to change their behavior. So if we're in a situation where someone, uh, where we're developing an algorithm that will then decide if someone receives a cash transfer that's based on. Calls and networks and we say that someone with fewer calls and fewer network contacts means that they're lower income and so then they're going to receive a transfer well then that person is going to make less calls and is going to call less people if they figure out that those are the types of indicators that are being used to decide if they get a cash transfer. There's a lot of really interesting work in the space, especially new research by, uh, Bjork, Gern Bloom and Stock and Knight that looks at this and actually develops, um, algorithms that can be, um, that can be robust to this type of manipulation. And so it's really important again as we start to use this data more for policy to be thinking about these sorts of changes in behavior that might happen because of the actions that we're taking in terms of how we're using the data. And so in terms of data limitations, I think the main areas we need to invest is first in phone access and so this has been brought up a few times today. I think that's where there's an opportunity for um for projects for governments to invest in having more people actually be part of the network and providing them with mobile phones. And we also need additional research into potential biases and it it's um likely that those biases will actually potentially evolve as we start to use the data more for policy so we need continuous research that is trying to understand what is happening on the ground and and how things are evolving. So where are we now? This is just um uh kind of a quick map looking at the countries that um the GSMA has highlighted had uh wound up using this type of data during the COVID-19 uh pandemic. This isn't inclusive of all countries, but it gives you a sense, and we see that there's a lot of usage in Europe, and it really did get kind of. Mainstreamed um in Europe but very much not so in Africa where I would say there's actually a lot more potential because there's so much less data available to understand what is happening on the ground and so while there's been a lot of success during the COVID-19 pandemic, I would say we're still far from actually mainstreaming the use of this data more broadly. And some of the things that have helped again during the pandemic is especially focusing on developing open source tools, um, things like the mobility analytics task force task force work here at the bank, um, where we've been working to develop open algorithms and trainings that can be available for. For anyone to, to use in their own context, um, a lot of work by Flowminder for, for years, especially the development of Flow Kit which can allow for MNOs to process this data on their own servers. The use of open software like Docker and Spark can make it possible for individuals around the world to be able to use these tools and to be able to work with this type of data. And all this can help to facilitate access by providing the uh the needed algorithms to to do this work. It can help to address privacy, especially if those algorithms and those tool kits are made so that the data can be analyzed at the mobile network operator. It can help standardize the production of the indicators and also ensure quality. If we embed quality checks in all these algorithms and these tool kits and there's a large number of organizations that are working in this space, um, I've just listed a few, um, but there's there's a community that's been pushing this work and and trying to work together and I think that we're in a really great spot to kind of keep pushing that forward. So then where do we go? Well, I think there's definitely an opportunity for us. And again, we've seen this really important transition happen where we've gone from the theoretical to actual applications on the right here, this is actually a farmer that uh was a beneficiary of the program in Togo that Emily talked about this morning and, and so it's really exciting to see that we're now actually putting this data to practice in nationwide programs. Nevertheless, more still needs to be done to mainstream mobile data, and I'm not going to do another call to action. Uh, we've had many of those, um, and we've actually seen a lot of action, so we've seen a lot of work happening during the pandemic, and I think what is needed now is that we actually have investment in sustainable, uh, work with this data and, um, in sustainable work to enable the environment. To make this happen in the types of um data access policies legislation regulation that is needed to do this on a wide scale as well as a lot of investment in the capacity and training of government officials of um MNO operators of others so everyone that's part of this ecosystem is needed to uh in order for this to move forward as as we saw earlier. And in addition, I think we need to continue with the high quality research we're seeing here today. As we've seen this work does require quite a bit of technical expertise. We need to be careful also in terms of the analysis that we're generating and, and how those are being applied to policy. And so as we hopefully do move into mainstreaming this data, I think it's. It's also important to remember that policymakers will need to continue working with researchers so that we can trust the data that we're producing. We can then also evaluate the results of the applications of those data and we can see how we can develop more effective systems that make use of this type of data. So I'll pause there if you have any questions. I don't know if there's time for questions. All right. True. There's any questions in Yeah. Think people can just go to the mic. Thank you so much for this um wonderful presentation um so I think you touched upon really important issues of data privacy and you know you are making an agreement or you know creating consensus between government and. And the organizations like World Bank, uh, for broader public use of, um, phone data, which is difficult to access. But even, you know, getting permission from government and, you know, the network carriers does that represent citizens' agreement to use their data. Just like in the past, there was a Kenyan government, you know, spying on. Uh, So there's are issues about, you know, whether foreign government or research institute like Harvard Public Health, um, spying on malaria data on Kenyan citizens and those like data sharing agreement maybe was only between government and You know, and the university, top university in the US. So how can we, you know, address this kind of issue? Maybe I'll take a couple of questions and then I'll address them. Yeah. Thank you, Ms. uh, Millicheva, for your talk. Uh, I'm wondering if you can talk about the, the point where you left off in terms of mainstreaming opportunities. How has the bank started, uh, considering the use of mobile data and operations in terms of assisting governments through very pragmatic applications with these data sets? Great questions. Um, so starting with the first one on privacy, um, I, I mean I, I do think that that's an important area where again we need to be. Thinking a lot about how do we define individual privacy, how do we think about group privacy, um, so again in, in some of these cases if the data can be applied in ways where, um, we're not actually looking at any individuals, we're not spying on any individuals, we're looking at group behavior similar to, um, being able to look at, um, patterns in migration and in census data. But I, there is a point about, you know, whether the individual gives their consent for their data to even be included in that, um, in that aggregate work and that's why I also suggested that we could think about models where people could opt into having their data used, um, how feasible that is, uh, is a question, um, but I think it's, it's something where there's a lot of different opinions, um, I've, I've talked to him. People sort of on on all sides of the spectrum in terms of what is considered private data, how you even define um whether the data is um I guess whether it's an individual or not or or whether it's anonymized enough that that it's OK to use um so I think the community has not reached a consensus and I think a lot more discussion will be needed on that. In terms of how the bank is moving forward with using this data, I think one of the um big areas right now is the social protection space, um, so work similar to what Emily has, uh, Emily showed us today in Togo, I think it's being um applied in in other settings in other countries, and I think there's a lot of exploration in terms of how we can. Use this, um, use this type of data to think about targeting to identify poor uh economic areas in a country, for example, or individuals, um, and so I think that's one of the areas where there's been a big push within the bank, but hopefully there will be a lot more, so that's, I think, you know, the. The area that that I'm also trying to push and it's an area where we need to work across departments, so working with the digital development uh global practice in the bank with the research um teams working with all the different global practices where this data can be applied and so it will take quite a lot of effort to move that forward. All right.
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Measuring Dev 2022 Stateof Play
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Measuring Development 2022: The Role of Mobile Data in Global Development Research —State of Play Lecture Recording
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