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Measuring Business Cycle Fluctuations: An Alternative Precursor to Economic Crises
November 17, 2016DECRG Kuala Lumpur Seminar Series

This study constructs a factor-based model of business cycle identification for the Malaysian economy via the dynamic factor approach. Our central focus is to explore a factor-based business cycle indicator (BCI) that can serve as a good gauge for economic crises. The empirical finding is in harmony with the envisaged objective; the constructed BCI produces satisfactory identification of business cycle turning points and statistically outperforms the national-owned composite leading indicator (CLI) in terms of predictive accuracy and forecasting performance. Therefore, we reckon that the constructed BCI can serve to identify the business climate and foretell approaching economic crises in a timely manner.

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  • Shirly Wong Siew-Ling

    Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak
    Shirly Wong Siew-Ling is a senior lecturer at Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (UNIMAS). She gained her Bachelor of Economics with Honours (Industrial Economics) and Doctor of Philosophy in Economics from UNIMAS. Prior to joining the faculty, she was a research assistant cum part-time tutor at UNIMAS. She worked under several consultancy projects and served the faculty a 3-year tutorship in various quantitative courses. Her research interests include applied econometrics analysis, macroeconomics forecasting and business cycle analysis. She is actively involved in local and international research activities such as workshop, seminar, conference, research poster competition and consultancy project. She has published numerous indexed journal articles and received several research awards, among others, 2 Best Paper Awards, 1st Prize Winner at 5th International Conference on Postgraduate Education (ICPE-5) 2012, Gold Medal at Seoul International Invention Fair (SIIF) 2013, Silver Medal at Malaysia Technology Expo (MTE-2014), Bronze Medal at International Conference Exposition on Inventions of Institutions of Higher Learning (PECIPTA-2013), and several Gold medals at UNIMAS R&D Exposition.
Event Details
  • WHEN: Thursday, November 17, 2016; 12:30-2:00PM
  • WHERE: World Bank Malaysia Office, Level 3, Sasana Kijang, No. 2, Jalan Dato’ Onn
  • RSVP: Kindly RSVP by Wednesday, November 16, 2016