Uganda

Uganda is a low-income country with a population of 45.9 million (2024), although the UN Population Division’s estimate is 50 million. Half the population is under 18, making it one of the youngest countries in the world. Located on the East African Plateau, landlocked Uganda straddles the equator and shares borders with Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, South Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. It has a greatly varied landscape ranging from savanna to snow-capped mountains and boasts numerous lakes, including a significant portion of Lake Victoria, the world's second-largest freshwater lake.

With ample arable land, the economic mainstay remains agriculture, accounting for 24% of GDP and employing about 72% of the labor force. Top foreign exchange earners include gold, coffee, tourism, and remittances from Ugandans living and working abroad. Apart from gold, the country has sizeable deposits of minerals such as copper, cobalt, iron, and rare earth elements. In partnership with French energy giant TotalEnergies and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Uganda plans to begin exporting crude oil towards the end of 2026.

The country started implementing its Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV) in July 2025. The plan will guide national development over the next five years under the theme of “sustainable industrialization for inclusive growth, employment, and wealth creation.”

The government plans to improve competitiveness by promoting a rapid uptake in science, technology, and innovation in the following growth areas: full monetization of the economy; value addition and industrialization; agriculture; tourism development; mineral-based industrial development; ICT; and finance.

Read More

Read Less

Uganda’s economy has been resilient, although progress has been constrained by the slow pace of reforms and rising fiscal pressures. Growth remained strong at 6.7% year-on-year in the second half of 2025, driven primarily by robust private consumption. Growth was broad-based, with strong performance in industry, particularly manufacturing and construction and services, while agricultural growth slowed due to lower rainfall levels. High-frequency indicators point to continued private sector expansion in early 2026.

Inflation remains below the Central Bank’s 5% target, supported by a cautious monetary policy stance and modest exchange rate appreciation which was reversed at the onset of the conflict in the Middle East starting in March 2026. Growth is projected to reach 6.8% in 2026 before accelerating further with the ramp-up in oil production in 2027 and 2028. Poverty is estimated to have declined modestly to 51.5% in FY2024–2025 from 52.9% in FY2023–2024.

Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased. Higher public spending, limited access to concessional financing, and greater reliance on costly domestic borrowing have widened the fiscal deficit and raised public debt. Debt service costs now exceed one‑third of revenues. Domestic revenue mobilization remains low, at about 13% of GDP, constraining investment in critical sectors such as health and education while most jobs remain informal, low‑productivity, and climate‑vulnerable.

To achieve its ambition of tenfold growth by 2040, Uganda will need to accelerate structural reforms to raise agricultural productivity, create more and better jobs, and strengthen macroeconomic management through fiscal consolidation by expenditure rationalization and implementation of the Domestic Revenue Mobilization Strategy, while protecting priority social spending to support inclusive growth.

Read More

Read Less

The portfolio in Uganda is financed by the World Bank Group’s (WBG) International Development Association (IDA), which provides credits (loans) on highly concessional terms, with no interest and no commitment fee on the undisbursed amount. Effective July 1, 2025, new IDA loans are payable over 40 years with an 11-year grace period. IDA also provides grants. As of December 31, 2025, the portfolio comprises 17 projects worth $4.05 billion. The portfolio, covering sectors ranging from social protection to energy, is complemented by trust fund resources, knowledge products, and technical assistance. The funds, channeled through an in-country Multi-Donor Trust Fund, currently stand at $79.2 million with eight donors: the UK’s FCDO, Ireland, the Netherlands, the Embassy of Sweden, Germany’s KfW, the Embassy of Ireland, the European Union, and the Gates Foundation.

The  International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s  priorities in Uganda remain centered on boosting agricultural productivity and commercialization, developing sustainable infrastructure, advancing financial inclusion and innovation, and strengthening the business environment. As of March 2026, IFC’s FY26 year-to-date commitments stand at $172.2 million, with an active portfolio of $82.2 million spanning infrastructure, manufacturing, agribusiness, and financial markets. These investments are complemented by $13.9 million in advisory projects.

As of February 28, 2026, the WBG Guarantee Platform, housed at the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), has an active exposure of $527.9 million in Uganda spanning the energy, fintech, and finance sectors. MIGA has also supported the Trade and Development Bank through guarantees that have enabled the mobilization of $747 million in commercial financing to expand trade finance across member countries including Uganda. Going forward, MIGA will deepen collaboration across the Group to de-risk foreign investment.

Read More

Read Less

The World Bank Group’s support to Uganda is guided by a Country Partnership Framework (CPF). A new CPF will soon be launched to promote Uganda’s transformation from an agricultural economy to a modern and prosperous country by 2040. The upcoming framework has been prepared by the WBG in collaboration with the Government of Uganda and in consultation with civil society, private sector, academia, development partners, and the public.

Read More

Read Less

Refugee support - Uganda hosts close to 2,000,000 refugees. Various projects within the Uganda portfolio have a grant component financed by the World Bank Group through the International Development Association’s Window for Host Communities and Refugees that supports refugees and their hosts. These projects have registered a range of results over the past year or so.

Health: Under the Uganda Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers Program (UgIFT), 35 health facilities, as well as 229 health workers in refugee-hosting districts (RHDs) were transitioned from management under humanitarian arrangements and mainstreamed within the government systems for sustainability, and 48 existing health centers were rehabilitated, expanded and/or equipped to meet basic standards. More than 114,000 individuals are now served by functional water schemes/points previously run by humanitarian agencies which are now managed by the government.

Education: Under Uganda Secondary Education Expansion Project (USEEP), 27,262 refugees and 36,746 host community students enrolled at lower secondary, and 647 teachers were recruited or trained in RHDs. Relatedly, under the Intergovernmental Fiscal Transfers Program Project (UgIFT), 51 schools with thousands of learners were transitioned from humanitarian to the government system for sustainability.

Women & entrepreneurship: Under Generating Growth Opportunities and Productivity for Women Enterprises Project (GROW), 35,310 female entrepreneurs (18,165 refugees, 17,145 hosts) accessed financial services and non-financial ones such as entrepreneurial and trade-specific training, and participation in networking platforms.

Energy access: The Electricity Access Scale-Up Project (EASP) has seen 19,039 refugees provided with access to electricity through grid, mini-grid, off-grid avenues, which is helping businesses and clean cooking and advancing the WBG Mission 300 initiative.

Read More

Read Less