Thailand

Thailand has rapidly transformed from an economy dominated by agriculture to a modern, industrialized, and export-led one, making its development a success story. In a rapidly changing global environment, reigniting economic growth requires a new vision—one that fosters innovation, investment, and trade; builds the workforce of tomorrow; and positions Thailand at the forefront of future industries. This vision will come together in the Building Thailand's Future Today report, currently under preparation, leading up to the 2026 WBG-IMF Annual Meetings hosted in Bangkok.

Thailand’s economy grew at an average annual rate of 7.5 percent in the boom years of 1960–1996; with growth slowing to 5 percent a year in 1999–2005, following the Asian Financial Crisis. Income per capita rose from $740 in 1980 to $7,080 in 2019. With improvements in living standards, the national poverty rate fell from 42.5 percent in 2000 to 6.3 percent in 2021. Thailand became an upper middle-income economy in 2011. Thailand has made remarkable progress over the last 50 years in social and economic development, moving from a low-income country to an upper-income country in less than a generation.

However, growth has decelerated to an average of 2.6 percent annually since 2010, with sluggish investment, stalling structural transformation away from lower-productivity agriculture, and deepening demographic challenges. Agriculture continues to employ roughly 30 percent of the labor force, a share that has remained broadly stagnant over the past decade, despite contributing less than 10 percent of GDP. The country is aging rapidly, with labor force participation starting to decline. Urban congestion, particularly in Bangkok, is curbing productivity, while business regulations and investment restrictions impede competition and innovation.

Under the World Bank's international upper-middle income poverty line of $8.30 per person per day (in 2021 PPP terms), 10.1 percent of Thailand’s population was estimated to be poor in 2023. With the top 10 percent of households holding more than half the country’s wealth, Thailand is one of the most unequal economies globally, and this is already a key constraint to faster and more inclusive growth. While incomes and wealth are concentrated in Bangkok and surrounding regions, rural areas, especially in the north and northeast, are significantly poorer and more vulnerable to climate shocks.

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Thailand’s economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2024, surpassing expectations due to an unexpected improvement in goods exports and the rollout of fiscal stimulus (THB 10,000 cash transfer) which offset slowing private consumption and tourism arrivals.

Despite the recent uptick in GDP growth, Thailand’s recovery continued to lag behind peers with GDP remaining below its potential level. Potential growth is expected to decrease by around 0.5 percentage points to 2.7 percent in 2022-30. At this rate, Thailand will not achieve its high-income aspirations by 2037. Raising competitiveness can help attract investments and move economic activity into more innovative or productive global value chains.

Amid recent global trade policy developments, weakening exports, slowing consumption and moderating tourism recovery, Thailand’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2026. However, GDP growth could rise to 2.2 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026 with improved investment sentiment.

To navigate these challenges, Thailand can focus on structural reforms to boost productivity in new growth engines and key industries of the future such as the creative economy, kitchen of the world / agri-business, sustainable tourism, green manufacturing, and digital services.

In the near term, fiscal rebalancing towards public investment, while safeguarding fiscal and financial stability will be essential to mitigate risks and support a more inclusive and sustainable recovery. Trade partnerships can be supported by broad-based trade liberalization through removing trade barriers to service and agricultural sectors. Enhancing human capital, improving the investment climate, and accelerating digital transformation are critical to raising productivity and promoting better jobs across multiple sectors in, for example, commerce, finance and public health.

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The World Bank Group’s, Building Thailand’s Future Today, is a forward-looking report with a consultation platform designed to chart the country’s path toward sustainable and inclusive prosperity.

To be launched ahead of the 2026 WBG-IMF Annual Meetings, it reflects on Thailand’s remarkable development journey while setting out a bold vision for the future. The initiative outlines a roadmap to reignite economic growth, boost competitiveness and create quality jobs for the Thai people.

At the core of this work is a deep dive into five industries of the future where Thailand holds unique strengths—advanced manufacturing, agribusiness, digital services, sustainable and health tourism, and creative economy.

The World Bank is a long-standing partner to Thailand’s development for over 75 years helping to address challenges that affect people’s daily lives. Today, the World Bank provides grant funding and technical assistance delivered in collaboration with government agencies, local organizations, international bodies, think tanks, and academic institutions supporting various sectors that are critical to inclusive and sustainable growth.

From FY2019-2025, the World Bank provided $70 million in support of Thailand. As of August 2025, the World Bank is working on several technical assistance and investment solutions including the Thailand Resilient Transport Connectivity and Irrawaddy Dolphin Conservation Project; Chao Phraya Basin Flood Management Operation and a Low-Carbon City Platform. The World Bank’s active knowledge and research work support priorities in macroeconomic management, urban development, poverty and jobs, and finance and private sector monitoring. It publishes twice a year the Thailand Economic Monitor. A robust reimbursable advisory service (RAS) program, operating under a Framework Agreement extended through November 22, 2028, has completed 24 engagements (US$9.8 million) with current engagements focusing on innovation and growth, area‑based urban development, education and skills, and business‑enabling reforms.

The FY2019–2022 Thailand-World Bank Group Country Partnership Framework (extended to June 2024) has concluded, and preparation of a new CPF is in progress.

With over 190 staff working with government partners, the private sector, and communities, the Thailand Office serves as a regional hub supporting country programs throughout the East Asia and Pacific and South Asia regions.

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From October 12–18, 2026, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WBG) will hold their Annual Meetings —one of the world’s largest economic gatherings, bringing together finance ministers, central bank governors, private investors, and development leaders from over 180 countries – in Bangkok for the first time since 1991.

This global spotlight presents Thailand with an opportunity to position itself to the world as a forward-looking, resilient nation with bold ideas and real potential for future prosperity.  The World Bank Group in Thailand is working with Thai stakeholders to amplify the 2026 Annual Meetings—through the development vision report “Building Thailand’s Future Today” that aims to set out a vision of Thailand’s future and key drivers of growth and jobs in five key industries of the future where Thailand has a comparative advantage: Advanced manufacturing, agribusiness, digital services, sustainable and health tourism, and creative economy. This is supported by a structured approach to engaging with government, civil society and business leaders through a platform for dialogue or foresight process to shape a shared vision for each of Thailand's future industries, the key enablers, and the actions needed to get there.

In the decades since the 1991 Annual Meetings were held in Thailand, the East Asia and the Pacific region has transformed in remarkable ways. As the world's fastest-growing region, these economies have fueled close to 40 percent of global GDP, provided a home for over half of the world’s population, and driven approximately 60 percent of recent global growth. The region has been resilient to many recent shocks, including the pandemic, regional conflicts, and the global inflation surge of 2022-23, and is once again navigating a difficult global trade policy environment. More generally, East Asia stands at an exciting crossroads with opportunities and challenges posed by sweeping transformations in technological advances, climate shocks, aging populations, and changing patterns of trade and financial flows.

Learn more about the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings, which Thailand will host, at Website: am2026thailand.go.th/ Facebook: www.facebook.com/AM2026Thailand.

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