Myanmar

Myanmar has suffered significant reversals in recent years, as a result of multiple and overlapping crises. In 2011, a political and economic transition process began under a transitional military government that led to the country’s first democratic elections, in 2015. From 2011 to 2019, Myanmar experienced high economic growth, averaging 6 percent a year, and significant poverty reduction, bolstered by economic reforms, the lifting of international sanctions, and optimism about greater stability. The underlying political economy remained fragile, however. In 2017, violence and conflict in Rakhine State led to one of the country’s largest waves of refugees fleeing their homes.

In February 2021, a military coup set back the country’s democratic transition and development, causing a sharp increase in internal conflict and displacement. According to the United Nations, as of the half of 2025, 3.5 million people in Myanmar were internally displaced and almost 20 million people, including 6 million children, in need of humanitarian assistance.

Myanmar is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, including earthquakes, cyclones, floods, and landslides. In March 2025, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake caused direct damages estimated at US$11 billion, equivalent to 14 percent of GDP, across Mandalay, Sagaing, Bago, Nay Pyi Taw Union Territory, and Magway. The earthquake affected over 17 million people, 9 million of them severely.

A year earlier, in September 2024, Super Typhoon Yagi directly affected nearly 1 million people, displacing hundreds of thousands and worsening the humanitarian crisis. In May 2023, Cyclone Mocha, a Category 5 storm, affected about 1.2 million people, causing widespread damage. These and other crises have eroded many of the development gains achieved over the past decade.

Read More

Read Less

Myanmar’s economy shrank during the COVID-19 pandemic and the period immediately following the military coup. Since then, output has remained weak. The economy is projected to contract by 2.5 percent in the 2025/26 fiscal year, largely because of the severe impacts of the 2025 earthquake. A partial recovery is expected in the second half of the fiscal year, supported by reconstruction efforts.

Factory closures, supply chain constraints, labor shortages, and damage to infrastructure have disrupted production across all sectors. These economic aftershocks have compounded ongoing challenges related to conflict, power shortages, and trade and exchange rate restrictions. Prices continue to rise rapidly, with inflation estimated at 34.1 percent year on year as of April 2025. Businesses continue to face a very difficult operating environment, with shortages of imported inputs, labor disruptions, and electricity, which has a particularly strong effect on manufacturing. Falling real incomes and lower household savings have limited consumption and retail trade.

Myanmar’s potential for inclusive growth in the medium term has been sharply curtailed. Reversals of previous economic reforms have unwound much of the increased openness and liberalization that had been a key driver of Myanmar’s strong growth in the decade before the coup. Disruptions to education and health services are likely to have long-lasting implications for productivity and household incomes. The increased out-migration of skilled workers and the sharp slowdown in foreign direct investment will likely further constrain the prospects for longer-term development.

Read More

Read Less

Poverty remains high, especially among internally displaced people. In 2024, before the earthquake, the poverty rate was estimated at 31.0 percent, similar to 2023 and significantly higher than the most recent official estimate of 24.8 percent in 2017. Simulations suggest that poverty could increase by another 2.8 percentage points as a result of the earthquake. These compounding crises have put household coping mechanisms under severe stress, pushing more workers into lower-value-added jobs and undermining learning outcomes among children, posing critical risks for Myanmar’s longer-term development. At the same time, Myanmar is struggling with armed conflict, economic instability, natural disasters, displacement, and a deepening humanitarian emergency, compounded by the March 2025 earthquake.

In response to the evolving situation, and aligned with the World Bank Group’s Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) Strategy, the World Bank has been supporting the delivery of essential basic services and livelihood assistance for the people of Myanmar through third-party organizations such as UN agencies and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

It is also delivering knowledge and analytical work to inform decision making and public understanding of key issues and developments, covering sectors such as agriculture, education, energy, food security, transportation, and the broader economy. It shares reports, survey results, and insights through the World Bank Myanmar Monitoring Platform.

Read More

Read Less