DEVELOPMENT OF NATURAL CAPITAL ACCOUNTS, DATA, TOOLS, AND ANALYSES
GPS has been supporting NCA activities in Zambia under the previous TTA project, which provided the basis for the CIC activity to update the existing accounts. Significant progress was made during FY25, with three updated or expanded natural capital accounts completed. The land account includes updated LULC maps and tables that are linked to economic data from the 2019 Social Accounting Matrix. The forest account captures provisioning and regulating services and is connected to emissions mitigation projections and poverty outcomes. The water account quantifies yield, quality, and usage at national and provincial scales. These updated accounts are built on previous work, are being used in the government, and are expected to become available for public use during FY26. The updated land, forest, and water accounts highlighted the dependence of rural and vulnerable populations on natural resources, particularly for livelihoods, fuelwood, and water, which are central to social inclusion and poverty reduction.
IEEM plus ecosystem modeling was applied to analyze the macroeconomic and environmental implications of implementing Zambia’s Green Growth Strategy. The results from these nature-aware computable general equilibrium modeling analyses have been shared with the Ministry of Finance. The modeling work focuses on macroeconomic, environmental, and biophysical outcomes, including GDP, national wealth, emission reductions, ecosystem services, aggregate poverty headcount, and land-use changes.
The modelling quantified the direct poverty reduction effects of the targeted AFOLU investment package, estimating that, relative to the baseline, a net additional 7,100 Zambians would exit poverty by 2050 as a result of these specific nature-based interventions. This figure reflects only the incremental impact of the modeled investment portfolio and does not represent overall national poverty reduction. The analysis also identified provincial disparities in forest loss, land degradation, and water stress, which relate to resource access and distributional issues between regions.
INFORMING INVESTMENTS AND POLICIES
The Zambia NCA program directly informed the design of the Transforming Landscapes for Resilience and Development II (P507971, in pipeline) project. Specifically, GPS analytics and NCA outputs enabled Transforming Landscapes for Resilience and Development II project to identify priority provinces and landscapes for investments in climate-smart agriculture, reforestation, and watershed management; quantify expected GDP, poverty, and emissions outcomes of proposed investments; and provide an evidence base for trade-off decisions between sectors and investment options in the project appraisal document. These analytics were acknowledged in the project appraisal document and will help ensure that the planned operation targets areas with the greatest potential for climate adaptation and impact on resilience.
The GPS grant has contributed to two policies: The Ninth National Development Plan of Zambia, currently under consultation, is the government’s main policy guide for the next five years. Updated land, forest, and water accounts, together with integrated economic-environmental modeling, provided evidence and scenarios supporting the plan’s emphasis on green growth, climate resilience, and sustainable resource use. These analyses quantify how investments in climate- smart agriculture, reforestation, and watershed management contribute to GDP, national wealth, poverty reduction, and progress toward NDC targets, strengthening the economic justification for integrating natural capital into development priorities. The government team acknowledged GPS support during a South-South exchange. This support is expected to be acknowledged in the final document.
Similarly, the NDC implementation strategy for Zambia has benefitted from GPS-supported analysis. The government prepared the strategy, which is under consultation. The IEEM plus ecosystem modeling analysis in particular demonstrated significant emissions reduction potential from agricultural, forestry, and other land use investments, reinforcing the government’s NDC implementation efforts and informing dialogue on prioritizing mitigation actions. The government’s leadership in the CIC program and in the development and updating of capital accounts facilitated integration of these findings into the NDC process. GPS support has been acknowledged, and engagement is ongoing.
CAPACITY BUILDING AND INSTITUTIONALIZATION
In FY25, institutionalization of NCA in Zambia progressed through strong collaboration among key agencies. The Ministry of Finance and National Planning leads policy integration and coordination using GPS support to increase its capacity for evidence-based planning and budgeting. The Zambia Statistics Agency is building technical expertise and institutional capacity to compile and update environmental-economic accounts, with support from Statistics Sweden—an important step in institutionalizing NCA in statistical systems and national accounts. The Ministry of Green Economy and Environment uses NCA evidence to inform climate policy and finance strategies, relying on coordination with other agencies. The University of Zambia enhances local expertise through training in integrated modeling, supporting long-term capacity in the country. The Cabinet Office and National Development Coordinating Committee are key agencies for aligning NCA with Zambia’s development priorities.
A series of capacity-building workshops was conducted through technical working sessions with Zambia’s national statistical and policy institutions. The workshop series began in November 2024, introducing the SEEA framework and pathways for institutionalizing NCA, engaging the Zambia Statistics Agency, Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Ministry of Green Economy and Environment, and other ministries. A second workshop in January 2025 focused on compiling water flow accounts, covering physical and monetary aspects, with participants from the Zambia Statistics Agency, Ministry of Water Development and Sanitation, and Ministry of Agriculture. The series also included thematic training in March and April 2025 on updating forest, water, and land accounts and introduced ecosystem services accounting for NCA technical working groups. A workshop in Livingstone demonstrated the integration of NCA data into macroeconomic modeling using IEEM, enabling scenario analysis for agricultural, forestry, and other land use investments and policy simulations. Thirteen participants from the Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Zambia Statistics Agency, University of Zambia, and Copperbelt University attended. In addition, Zambia hosted an in-person South-South exchange in Lusaka, bringing together experts from Kenya and national participants from diverse agencies including the Zambia Statistics Agency, Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Ministry of Green Economy and Environment, and University of Zambia.
COMMUNICATION
In April 2025, the World Bank published a feature article titled Enhancing Conservation through Data-Driven Decision-Making in Zambia highlighting the program’s work on wildlife and protected areas accounts. The article showcased how updated accounts provide data-driven insights into the economic contributions and sustainability of Zambia’s protected areas, which cover approximately 30 percent of the country and contribute more than 7 percent to GDP through wildlife-based tourism. The piece reached diverse audiences, including policy makers, conservation practitioners, and development partners, increasing the visibility of Zambia’s NCA work at the national and international levels.
The program also facilitated an in-person South- South exchange in Lusaka, bringing together experts from Kenya and local participants to share experiences on NCA institutionalization.
The team is planning a national natural capital forum in FY26 to support further mainstreaming of natural capital into macro policies and increase the sustainability of the GPS effort in Zambia.
