00:00 I'm Massimiliano Paolucci.
00:02 I'm the quantum manager for Kosovo in North Macedonia.
00:06 It is my pleasure to announce the full edition of
00:09 the World Bank's regular economic report for the Western Balkans.
00:13 The report reflects our latest assessment of the region's economic developments
00:18 and prospects.
00:20 We are presenting this report across our offices in the Western Balkans,
00:23 in Tirana,
00:24 Skopje,
00:25 Sarajevo,
00:25 Podgorica,
00:26 and Belgrade in parallel.
00:29 Throughout the Western Balkans,
00:31 economies are recovering faster than previously anticipated.
00:35 We are projecting a more positive medium-term outlook.
00:39 Real economic activity is expected to surpass
00:43 pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021
00:46 for almost all economies in the Western Balkans,
00:49 including Kosovo.
00:51 The recovery is broad based.
00:54 The rebound is being supported by a heady combination of domestic reopening,
00:59 allowing for a recovery in consumption
01:01 and tourism arrivals
01:03 and favorable external conditions for the region's exports.
01:07 The report also underlines continued risk from the pandemic.
01:11 New pandemic flare ups and new variants can weigh
01:14 on the growth prospects if domestic or international movement restrictions
01:18 are reinstated.
01:20 Hence acceleration of vaccines and overcoming vaccine hesitancy
01:24 remain as priorities in the region.
01:27 Furthermore,
01:28 inflationary pressures have picked up
01:31 in line with global trends.
01:34 For Kosovo,
01:35 the report reiterates the projections
01:37 we released in early October as part of the Europe and Central Asia update.
01:42 Kosovo's economy is recovering rapid rapidly from
01:45 the pandemic induced contraction in 2020.
01:48 Real economic activity will exceed 2020 levels by the end of 2021.
01:54 The report
01:55 also highlights improved fiscal position
01:58 supported by rapid recovery.
02:01 Strong economic recovery needs to be utilized to
02:04 build the momentum for greater economic opportunities.
02:07 Policies and investment
02:09 should focus on longer term reforms
02:12 to fundamentally transform Kosovo's growth model
02:16 into a model driven by higher productivity.
02:19 And the same callal applies to the entire region.
02:23 Look beyond the pandemic,
02:26 the policy focus should address alleviate
02:29 key structural impediments to job creation
02:32 and economic transformation.
02:35 Many of these constraints,
02:36 which among others include weak firm productivity,
02:40 lack of market competition,
02:42 limited regional economic integration,
02:45 and fragile institutions have now become even more apparent.
02:49 Furthermore,
02:50 the 6 countries of the Western Balkans now find themselves
02:54 at a key decision point,
02:56 the impending green transition.
02:58 The report presents a spotlight on the necessary pathway to green growth.
03:04 The world is going through a fundamental structural change.
03:08 Global strides
03:09 towards action on climate change are
03:11 changing the foundations of economic activity,
03:14 consumer choices,
03:15 and investor behavior everywhere.
03:18 Yet the Western Balkans are currently characterized
03:21 by a development model
03:23 tilted towards familiar brown industries.
03:27 Transition to a green growth pathway is far from easy,
03:31 especially in the short term.
03:33 The green transition
03:34 also offers opportunities for the Western Balkans.
03:37 Closer integration into Eurocentric global value chains
03:42 and access to significant EU resources
03:45 can support a green transition.
03:47 Effectively managing this transition,
03:50 including the many policy trade-offs,
03:52 will need to be a core focus
03:55 of policy attention
03:56 for the Western Balkans
03:57 in the years ahead.
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