The Impact of COVID-19 on Myanmar's Economy

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00:06 Despite a strong start to the fiscal year,

00:09 the COVID-19 pandemic has derailed Myanmar's economic expansion.

00:15 The pandemic impacted Myanmar's economy through

00:18 both external and domestic transmission channels.

00:22 Although the agriculture as well

00:24 as information and communications technology sectors

00:28 have remained resilient,

00:30 disruptions in supply chains

00:32 and weakening global demand

00:34 have negatively impacted the industrial sector.

00:41 Containment and mobility measures continue to negatively impact

00:46 wholesale and retail trade,

00:48 tourism related services,

00:51 and transportation.

00:55 you know what I met 2 lalalala metka touraredina.

01:34 I

01:43 Inflation pressures have softened as the

01:46 COVID-19 pandemic continues to suppress economic activity

01:50 and declining consumer demand.

01:54 This crisis highlights an urgent need for

01:57 coordinated health and economic policy action,

02:01 such as that undertaken by the Myanmar government

02:04 under the COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan,

02:08 the CERP.

02:11 CERP aims to ensure macroeconomic stability,

02:15 support firms,

02:16 protect poor households,

02:18 and improve the country's capacity to prevent and cope with such future events.

02:25 You see,

02:26 uh.

02:54 subsidize the

02:57 To

02:59 muloye yo

03:01 ya kauribi taiyadi laga yeha du taya subsidized lojano organ bayarama

03:22 in line with the slowing global economic growth rate.

03:25 Myanmar's GDP growth forecast

03:28 for the fiscal year 2019 to 2020

03:32 has been revised downward from 6.4% to just 0.5%.

03:38 Under the baseline scenario,

03:41 the GDP growth rate is expected to recover to 7.2%

03:46 in the fiscal year 2020 to 2021.

03:52 Infrastructure investment,

03:54 increased activity in the service sector,

03:57 stronger exports,

03:58 and resurgent private consumption

04:01 are projected to return the GDP growth rate

04:04 to its pre-crisis trend.

04:07 As demand and investment recover,

04:10 the continued development of the e-commerce and insurance subsectors

04:15 is expected to accelerate the growth of services.

04:19 The inflation rate is projected to remain high at

04:22 an average of 7.5% over the medium term.

04:28 However,

04:29 risks to the outlook are tilted heavily to the downside.

04:33 As the global recession deepens and domestic debt dynamics destabilized,

04:39 the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic could

04:42 delay the resumption of economic activity.

04:47 In the long run,

04:48 COVID-19 will weigh on Myanmar's potential growth and productivity,

04:54 raising the importance of reforms to boost productivity.

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Despite a strong start to the fiscal year, the COVID-19 pandemic has derailed Myanmar's economic expansion. The pandemic impacted Myanmar's economy through both external and domestic transmission channels. Although the agriculture as well as information and communications technology sectors have remained resilient, disruptions in supply chains and weakening global demand have negatively impacted the industrial sector. Containment and mobility measures continue to negatively impact wholesale and retail trade, tourism related services, and transportation. you know what I met 2 lalalala metka touraredina. I Inflation pressures have softened as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to suppress economic activity and declining consumer demand. This crisis highlights an urgent need for coordinated health and economic policy action, such as that undertaken by the Myanmar government under the COVID-19 Economic Relief Plan, the CERP. CERP aims to ensure macroeconomic stability, support firms, protect poor households, and improve the country's capacity to prevent and cope with such future events. You see, uh. subsidize the To muloye yo ya kauribi taiyadi laga yeha du taya subsidized lojano organ bayarama in line with the slowing global economic growth rate. Myanmar's GDP growth forecast for the fiscal year 2019 to 2020 has been revised downward from 6.4% to just 0.5%. Under the baseline scenario, the GDP growth rate is expected to recover to 7.2% in the fiscal year 2020 to 2021. Infrastructure investment, increased activity in the service sector, stronger exports, and resurgent private consumption are projected to return the GDP growth rate to its pre-crisis trend. As demand and investment recover, the continued development of the e-commerce and insurance subsectors is expected to accelerate the growth of services. The inflation rate is projected to remain high at an average of 7.5% over the medium term. However, risks to the outlook are tilted heavily to the downside. As the global recession deepens and domestic debt dynamics destabilized, the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic could delay the resumption of economic activity. In the long run, COVID-19 will weigh on Myanmar's potential growth and productivity, raising the importance of reforms to boost productivity.

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