MAPUTO, December 1, 2023 – Climate change impacts could drive up to 1.6 million additional people into poverty by 2050, further compounding drivers of fragility across most of the country, notes the World Bank Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) for Mozambique, released today. This report evaluates how climate change and global decarbonization might impact the people of Mozambique and the country's development in the next decades and suggests ways to respond.
The report outlines four priorities to boost climate adaptation, build resilience, and foster low-carbon growth in a context of tight fiscal space: (I) adopting economy-wide measures to enhance the country's capacity to adapt to climate change, (II) prioritizing critical infrastructure development and management, (III) protecting the most vulnerable while promoting green, resilient, and inclusive growth, and (IV) leveraging Mozambique's energy and mineral wealth.
“There is a need for Mozambique to fully incorporate climate change into its national development strategy to enable it to become more resilient and capable of adapting to challenges and opportunities posed by climate change,” noted Idah Pswarayi-Riddihough, World Bank Country Director for Mozambique, Madagascar, Mauritius, Comoros, and Seychelles.
While Mozambique’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is minimal, at 0.21%, the country is one of the world's most vulnerable to climate change. Climatic impacts increasingly affect growth and livelihoods in Mozambique, impacting its people, infrastructure, and natural resources. Mozambique’s poverty and inequality levels are among the world’s highest, compounded by fragility, conflict, and violence, especially in the northern, gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado. Without adaptation action, climate change impacts could drive an additional 1.6 million people into poverty by 2050, under the worst scenario.
This CCDR estimates that the level of investment needed until 2030 to achieve climate resilience of Mozambique's human, physical, and natural capital amounts to $37.2 billion. The cost of inaction will likely be higher. On the other hand, expected revenues from Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) sales will enhance the country’s debt sustainability. They can generate significant fiscal space to support investments in adaptation needs and climate-resilient infrastructures, but these are expected only after 2030. In the interim, investments in resilience and adaptation should focus on the most urgent needs.
"Targeted policy reforms will help Mozambique unlock private investments for projects that will strengthen the country's resilience to climate shocks and support sustainable economic growth," said Vasco Nunes, Interim Country Manager of the International Finance Corporation (IFC) for Mozambique. "IFC recognizes the private sector’s increasingly important role in helping Mozambique address its climate change challenges and supporting the country’s growth and transition towards a low-carbon economy."
Mozambique’s government has shown a solid commitment to climate action. The government launched the National Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy (NCCAMS) to provide guidelines for climate action, adoption, and implementation for 2013-2025. Initially focused on adaptation, NCCAMS has expanded to include actions that can promote low-carbon growth, increased capacity building on climate change issues, and increased readiness to access climate finance. Although more needs to be done to equip the country for the impacts of climate change, Mozambique’s rich legal and regulatory portfolio has grown over the past two decades, providing a strategic framework for climate action.
Mozambique’s CCDR includes inputs from key national stakeholders following country-wide consultations, which involved over 300 representatives from central and local governments, civil society, leading think tanks, and development partners.
About the Climate and Development Reports
The World Bank Group's Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation while delivering broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs, challenges, benefits, and opportunities. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector, and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs will feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements, and operations and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action.