00:04 Zambia's economy
00:06 showed resilience in 2024,
00:08 expanding by 4% despite challenges such as drought and power outages,
00:13 largely due to growth in the mining sector and services.
00:17 The agriculture sector faced difficulties,
00:20 but its contribution to GDP
00:22 was minimal,
00:23 allowing overall growth to continue.
00:25 The labor market improved post-pandemic
00:28 with a decrease in unemployment to 12%,
00:31 an addition of nearly 0.7 million jobs between 2022 and 2023.
00:38 2024,
00:40 last year.
00:41 Amidst
00:42 all the gloom.
00:45 Caused by the drought.
00:47 The economy still managed to grow by 4%.
00:51 The outlook still remains positive.
00:55 Growth range of around 6%.
00:58 So this pleases us.
01:01 This tells us that.
01:03 The future is good
01:05 This tells us that
01:08 We,
01:08 we must maintain
01:10 the policy trajectory
01:13 that has caused all this to happen.
01:15 Despite economic growth,
01:17 GDP per capita growth slowed to 1.2% in 2024,
01:23 and poverty
01:24 remains widespread,
01:26 with 63.1% of the population
01:29 living below the $2.15 poverty line.
01:33 The outlook remains optimistic,
01:34 driven by a robust momentum in the mining sector,
01:37 a rebound in agriculture,
01:39 and improvements in tourism.
01:41 Real GDP is anticipated to increase by 5.8%
01:45 in 2025,
01:46 averaging
01:47 6.5% in 2026-2027.
01:51 The World Bank Zambia Economic update notes that
01:54 significant risks persist due to lower global growth,
01:57 emerging uncertainties in trade policies,
01:59 and frequent climatic events.
02:01 While mining remains a major driver of economic growth
02:04 and government revenues,
02:06 Zambia must concurrently divest.
02:08 Its economy to accelerate economic transformation.
02:12 Steel,
02:12 the mining sector
02:14 presents a distinct opportunity to leverage
02:16 economic transformation to benefit all Zambians.
02:19 We're currently seeing a
02:21 significant increased demand for what we call energy transition minerals.
02:25 These are minerals such as copper,
02:27 lithium,
02:28 cobalt,
02:28 manganese,
02:29 all of which are found here in Zambia.
02:32 Part two of the Zambia economic update leverages the
02:36 recently concluded energy transition minerals roadmap for Zambia,
02:40 focuses on
02:41 three core elements of that roadmap,
02:43 namely one,
02:44 what is it going to take to scale up production
02:47 sustainably in Zambia so that government can
02:50 reach its 3 million tons of
02:52 copper per annum target.
02:54 2,
02:55 how to manage and collect those revenues that
02:58 will come from the growth of the sector.
03:00 And then 3,
03:01 importantly,
03:02 how can Zambia add value
03:04 to its mineral production?
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Zambia's economy showed resilience in 2024, expanding by 4% despite challenges such as drought and power outages, largely due to growth in the mining sector and services. The agriculture sector faced difficulties, but its contribution to GDP was minimal, allowing overall growth to continue.
According to the latest Zambia Economic Update (ZEU), the outlook for Zambia remains optimistic, driven by robust momentum in the mining sector, a rebound in agriculture, and improvements in tourism. Real GDP is anticipated to increase by 5.8% in 2025, with an average growth rate of 6.5% projected for 2026-27. The expansion in 2025 is partly attributable to some base effects as the economy recovers from the severe drought, supported by adequate rainfall in the current rainy season.
The ZEU recommends (i) unleashing agricultural productivity by fully transitioning to the e-voucher system, improving targeting, and shifting toward private-sector-led financing to limit public liabilities; (ii) raising productivity through greater competition in the energy sector; (iii) closing tax gaps by strengthening revenue administration; and (iv) maintaining monetary policy tightening to anchor inflation expectations and protect policy credibility, to achieve positive real rates.
The special topic section of this edition of the ZEU explores how Zambia can leverage energy transition minerals (ETM) for economic transformation.
In its focused chapter on ETMs, the ZEU argues that to maximize this potential, Zambia should focus on:
- Scaling ETM Production: Implementing comprehensive reforms to boost ETM production, including identifying mineral resources, ensuring a reliable and cost-competitive clean power supply, transport, and logistics services, upskilling the workforce, and strengthening environmental and social risk management.
- Maximizing Fiscal Potential: Strengthening ETM revenue management and allocation to support fiscal sustainability and broader inter-generational development objectives.
- Adding Value to Mineral Resources: Developing the copper value chain and addressing barriers to greater value-adding activities, including the lack of access to raw materials and finance, enhancing the inefficient investment climate, augmenting the electricity supply, and reducing trade and transport time and costs.
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