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Book Launch: Probabilistic Modeling for Disaster Risk Management, The Case of Bogota, Colombia
October 21, 2013Bogota, Colombia
Monday, October 21st, 2013, Los Andes University, Julio Mario Santo Domingo Building, Calle 21 # 1-20 Auditorio SD – 1003, Bogota 5:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.

Earthquakes, hurricanes, floods and other disasters are natural phenomena, but they include a social dimension as they also affect the poorest or least prepared communities. 

Recent events such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010, Chile’s on 27 February 2010, New Zealand’s on 13 June 2011 and Japan’s on 11 March 2011, as well as the 2010 and 2011 floods in Pakistan, Thailand and Colombia, illustrate the profound effect that this type of events can have on national development plans, as well as the need for countries to adopt and consolidate proactive risk management policies.

Under this scenario, Los Andes University and the World Bank, with support from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), are publishing the “Probabilistic Modeling for Disaster Risk Management. The Case of Bogota, Colombia.”

The book includes conceptual bases and the use of different risk management evaluation case findings under the framework of socio-economic planning and sustainable development. Special emphasis is made on the seismic theme and the risks derived from floods and slides in cities.

The objective of this publication is to illustrate a series of real cases that have proved useful in the implementation of disaster risk management activities, in order to make the technical community, public officials and decision-makers related to the field aware of the benefits of having access to relevant and appropriate risk evaluation information from a probabilistic perspective.

In this way, using risk evaluations based on real examples undertaken in Bogota during the last fifteen years, proposals include ideal prevention and mitigation alternatives, adequate emergency planning and analysis of risk retention and transfer alternatives for financial protection purposes.

The complete book is available here (in Spanish).

Book Launch

Probabilistic Modeling for Disaster Risk Management

The Case of Bogota, Colombia

Monday, October 21st, 2013, Los Andes University,
Julio Mario Santo Domingo Building, Calle 21 # 1-20 Auditorio SD – 1003, Bogota
5:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m.

 

5:30 - 5:45 p.m.        Welcoming Remarks

                               Pablo Navas Sanz de Santamaria, Rector, Los Andes University

                               Issam A. Abousleiman, Country Manager (Colombia), The World Bank 

                               Eduardo Behrentz, Dean, Faculty of Engineering, Los Andes University 

5:45 - 5:55 p.m.        General Presentation of the Book
                                            

                               Luis Eduardo Yamin, Associate Professor, Los Andes University

5:55 - 6:05 p.m.        General Concepts of Hazard, Vulnerability and Risk for Probabilistic Analysis 

                               Mario Gustavo Ordaz, Tenured Professor, Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University

                               of Mexico, Mexico City

6:05 - 6:15 p.m.        Applications of Probabilistic Modeling in Bogota

                               Omar Dario Cardona, Associate Professor, National University of Colombia (Manizales Chapter)

6:15 - 6:25 p.m.        Fiscal Exposure and Financial Protection Analysis

                               Francis Ghesquiere, Practice Group Manager, Disaster Risk Management and Director of the Global

                               Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), The World Bank

6:25 - 6:40 p.m.        Discussion Session

6:40 - 6:45 p.m.        Closing

                               Engineer Javier Pava Sanchez, Director General, Emergency Prevention and Response Fund

                               (FOPAE, in Spanish), Office of the Mayor of Bogota, D.C.

6:45 - 8:00 p.m.        Cocktail

  • Luis Eduardo Yamin, Associate Professor, Los Andes University

    Civil engineer and Master’s Degree in Civil Engineering (1983) from Los Andes University in Bogota (Colombia); Master of Science (1985) from Stanford University. He has been associated with Los Andes University since 1985, as an associate professor and researcher at the Civil Engineering and Environmental Department. He is the director of CIMOC (Materials and Civil Works Research Center) and CEDERI (Disaster and Risk Study Center) at Los Andes University. His areas of expertise include natural phenomena hazard analysis and modeling, especially earthquakes, winds and slides, risk and vulnerability evaluations on all types of civil work components, as well as analysis and design of infrastructure works for all kinds of requests. He has directed a great number of research projects and specialized consultancy projects at a national and international level. He is the author of more than thirty articles published in national and foreign magazines, and several chapters in specialized books, documents and technical publications on various subjects. He has actively participated in the development of the CAPRA platform by the Natural Risk Evaluation-Latin America (ERN-AL) consortium, a project sponsored by the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) and the UN-ISDR, with the objective of evaluating multi-threat risks around the world. He is an advisor to several multinational companies in the industrial and insurance sectors, government agencies in several countries and international organizations such as the World Bank, IDB, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and the OFDA (Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance) at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), among others.

  • Francis Ghesquiere, Practice Group Manager, Disaster Risk Management, World Bank, and Director of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and RecoveryMundial para la Reducción y Recuperación de los Desastres

    He is the current manager of the Disaster Group Management Practice Group and director of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). Prior to this position, he served as regional coordinator of Disaster Risk Management for Latin America and the Caribbean at the World Bank, where he directed a series of flagship initiatives, including the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) and the CAPRA Initiative for probabilistic risk evaluation. Furthermore, he is the founder of the Understanding Risk Forum (UR), which gathers experts and professionals to explore innovation in disaster risk evaluation. His tenure has been relevant in the design and implementation of new risk management policies at the World Bank, including the new emergency operations policy and innovative emergency and risk financing instruments such as the Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Options (CAT DDO) and the Immediate Response Mechanism (IRM). He also led the vulnerability reduction project in Bogota (Colombia). He has a Master’s Degree from Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and an Engineering Degree from Louvain University. He has also studied Finance and Economy at New York University, Esade-Barcelona and HEC in Paris.

  • Omar Dario Cardona, Associate Professor, National University of Colombia (Manizales Chapter)

    He is an associate professor at the National University of Colombia. He has served as president of the Colombian Seismic Engineering Association and general director of the National Disaster Risk Management Office of Colombia. He was also worked as a consultant for the World Bank, IDB, UNDP, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UN-ISDR) and other UN agencies. He was the representative of the Natural Risk Evaluation-Latin America Consortium (ERN-AL, which is developing the CAPRA platform), manager of Ingeniar Ltda. and researcher at the International Centre for Numerical Methods in Engineering (CIMNE) in Spain. He is a founding member of the Latin American Social Studies on Disaster Prevention Network (LA RED). He is also a member of the IRDR Scientific Committee at ICSU, of the Scientific Committee at GEM, lead author and coordinator of the IPCC SREX and reviser/editor of IPCC AR5. In 2004 he was awarded the UN’s Sasakawa Prize for Disaster Risk Reduction. He is a civil engineer from the National University of Colombia, Manizales chapter, and performed postgraduate studies in risk evaluation at Oxford Polytechnic in the United Kingdom, and in Colorado State University at Fort Collins, United States. He also has a doctorate in Seismic Engineering and Structural Dynamics from Catalonia’s Polytechnic University.

  • Mario Gustavo Ordaz, Tenured Professor, Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City

    Civil engineer, Master’s and Doctor of Structural Engineering (1992, with honors) from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). He is the author of eighty articles published in international magazines and four book chapters. He took part in the definition of most of the seismic regulations developed in Mexico after 1985, as well as in other countries. Equally, he took part in seismic risk analyses for dozens of important engineering projects and has led the development of the systems used by the Mexican government to evaluate the creditworthiness of insurance companies subscribing seismic and hydro-meteorological policies in that country. He has served as consultant in these fields for various countries and has led the technical development of the software platform used in the CAPRA initiative. He is currently a professor at UNAM’s Engineering Institute and president of ERN Ingenieros Consultores.
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Probabilistic Modeling for Disaster Risk Management, The Case of Bogota, Colombia (sp)

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