Natural, anthropogenic, and policy-driven shocks present serious threats to households' incomes and food security. Changes in yields due to climate change are forecast to reduce real incomes by 11.99 percent. Furthermore, war-induced food inflation caused by restrictive policies for exports of grains and fertilizers reduced real household incomes across low- and middle-income countries by 2.90 percent on average. However, in both cases the welfare impacts of these shocks vary enormously across the income distribution, with already vulnerable households bearing the brunt of the costs. The Trade Policy and Natural Shocks Dashboard allows users to visualize how these impacts vary across households in over 50 countries, how they operate through different economic channels, and how households respond to these shocks.
For further details on the methodology behind these visualizations, see the Policy Research Working Paper Crops, Conflict, and Climate Change.