Viet Nam 2045—Growing Greener: Pathways to a Resilient and Sustainable Future

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This report argues that while Viet Nam’s transition to greener and more resilient development will pose challenges, it will also unlock new drivers of growth and job creation. The report answers three critical questions: what can Viet Nam do to adapt to climate change, how to engender growth-friendly emissions reduction, and how to unlock the potential of the marine economy.

Why taking adaptation measures matter?

Viet Nam is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, ranked 13th globally for climate risk during 2000-19 by Germanwatch. The climate crisis is already threatening key economic sectors, such as agriculture and transport, along with major urban and industrial hubs.

The cost of inaction is high. Macroeconomic models suggest that climate impacts could reduce national output by 9.1 percent from the baseline by 2030 and 12.5 percent by 2050, while also increasing inequality and slowing poverty reduction. Without adaptation measures, inaction  could lead to an average annual loss of 0.33 percentage points in real GDP growth during the 2025-2050, potentially preventing Viet Nam from achieving its goal of becoming a high-income economy by 2045.

While costly, investing in adaptive measures can significantly reduce economic and social losses. An estimated U$233 billion—or 0.75 percent of GDP annually—is required for adaptation in agriculture, infrastructure, and to protect human capital between 2025 and 2050.  Simulations show these measures could cut the projected loss from 12.5 to 6.7 percent. Beyond these macroeconomic gains, such investments also yield crucial co-benefits such as increased productivity, environmental sustainability, and social resilience, which help improve the cost-benefit ratio of these investments.

How to reconcile growth and emission reductions?

Viet Nam’s economy remains relatively carbon intensive. Viet Nam’s carbon intensity—measured as GHG emissions per unit of GDP—exceeds the middle-income country average by 45.6 percent. GHG emissions in Viet Nam continue to grow rapidly, increasing at an annual rate of 6.2 percent over the last decade. The power sector, industry, and agriculture are the primary sources of these emissions.

Viet Nam has made an ambitious pledge and adopted a range of policies to reduce carbon emissions. The government’s five key mitigation policies—focused on energy transition, green transport, agriculture, energy efficiency, and carbon pricing—can help achieve Viet Nam’s Nationally Determined Contribution targets for 2030. Climate mitigation policies offers crucial co-benefits such as fostering innovation, birth of new industires, and  improving public health. However, these measures alone are insufficient to put the country on track  to meet the 2050 net zero target.  

To bridge this gap, it is critical to accelerate the decarbonization of industrial and manufacturing sectors and efforts to create carbon sinks. These measures would significantly contribute to cutting GHG emissions by 74 percent by 2050 and, through energy efficiency and lower costs, boosting real GDP by up to 4.4 percent compared to the baseline scenario. Decarbonization also improves Viet Nam’s export competitiveness in a growing global green market.

How can Marine Economy – a crucial nexus for climate adaptation and Mitigation – contribute more to sustainable economic development?

Viet Nam's marine economy offers a clear competitive advantage, with a 3,260km coastline and vast ocean resources supporting half its population. The country’s top leadership recognizes this potential, and its Resolution 36-NQ/TW sets an ambitious vision: for marine sectors to contribute 10 percent of GDP by 2030, with coastal regions generating up to 70 percent of the national total.

While the marine sector's direct contribution to the economy is currently estimated 5-5.8 percent of GDP, it grew rapidly at nearly 9 percent annually over the last decade. Beyond direct activity, healthy ecosystems deliver essential services like storm protection and carbon storage, conservatively adding another 0.6 percent to GDP. However, this potential is severely threatened by overfishing, climate change, and pollution, with Viet Nam being one of the world's top five ocean plastic polluters.

The marine economy’s vulnerability to climate risks makes adaptation urgent and beneficial. At the same time, it offers significant opportunities for climate mitigation. Expanding renewable energy—especially offshore wind and wave power—can reduce fossil fuel dependence, while restoring mangroves and protecting seagrass beds and coral reefs will boost coastal resilience and enhance natural carbon sinks.

To mitigate risks and realize the marine economy’s potential, Viet Nam should establish marine protected areas, enforce sustainable fishing practices, and restore mangroves to strengthen coastal resilience and carbon sequestration. Engaging local communities through education and sustainable livelihoods will foster stewardship of marine resources. Integrating ecosystem health into economic planning is essential to balance growth with sustainability and preserve ocean resources for future generations.