Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is a lower-middle-income country in Central Asia with the region’s largest population—over 38 million people. One of only two doubly- landlocked countries in the world, it is the only country that borders all four other Central Asian nations—Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—as well as Afghanistan. Uzbekistan has one of the most diversified economies in the region.

The government’s Central Asia–oriented and proactive foreign policy enables the country to play a leading role in promoting regional economic cooperation, including in the water, energy, transport, and trade sectors. These efforts are also supported by the World Bank Group through various regional programs.

Since 2017, the government has implemented bold reforms to liberalize the economy and strengthening the foundations for private sector–led growth, with active support from the World Bank Group. Real GDP growth averaged 6% annually between 2017 and 2025. The country has become one of the world’s top reformers, outperforming many lower-middle-income economies.

Despite this progress, job creation has lagged behind economic growth,  and the country will need to generate approximately 10 million additional and better-paid jobs over the next 7 to 10 years.

To achieve sustainable, job-rich economic growth, Uzbekistan needs to sustain its reforms focused on reducing state dominance in the economy, liberalizing key sectors, and improving the environment for trade, business, and investment, as well as building the right skills for the fast-growing economy.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) can serve as an anchor for these reforms. Uzbekistan’s accession is expected to boost GDP by up to 17%, driven in part by increased investment, while also reducing national poverty by up to 1.6 percentage points.

In Uzbekistan, real GDP rose by 7.7% in 2025, up from 6.7% in 2024, driven by export recovery, private consumption, and growth in services, agriculture, and industry. Private consumption increased by 9.2% in real terms due to higher wages and remittances, while investment grew by 10.5%.

Exports rose by 24% (in US$ terms), led by gold, copper, zinc, uranium goods, food, fertilizers, and services, while imports increased by 18.5% due to higher purchases of energy, machinery, and intermediate goods. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.3% of GDP in 2025 from 4.7% in 2024.

The Uzbek sum appreciated by 0.6% in 2025 against the dollar due to increased foreign inflows, including remittances and export revenue. International reserves reached $70 billion in January 2026 (86% in gold), up $27.1 billion from a year prior.

Household income growth in 2025 was high, driven by wage income growth, and favored lower-income groups. This pro-poor growth cut the national poverty rate from 8.9% to 5.8% and improved the Gini coefficient from 34.6 to 32.7 between 2024 and 2025.

Outlook: As a net importer of oil and gasoline, Uzbekistan is exposed to the energy price shocks from the conflict in the Middle East. On balance, the conflict is expected to slightly dampen GDP growth in 2026, increase the current account deficit, and add modestly to inflation.

Growth is projected to moderate to 6.4% in 2026, driven primarily by domestic demand, especially private consumption and investment, while the contribution of net exports and remittances is expected to be modest due to slowing growth in Russia and China.

The government is expected to adhere to its debt limits, with public debt remaining around 28% of GDP in 2026–2027. Headline inflation is projected to decline below 8% in 2026 and gradually approach the inflation target of 5% by 2028.

Downside risks stem from a deeper-than-anticipated deterioration in Russia’s economic performance, a correction in gold prices, and a prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Learn more about Uzbekistan’s economic performance.

In 2023, Uzbekistan adopted the National Development Strategy 2030, aiming to become an upper-middle-income country by the end of this decade. The strategy also prioritizes actions to improve people’s well-being through sustainable economic growth, protect the environment, conserve natural resources, and develop public services with a focus on citizens’ needs. The country has also set a target to completely eradicate absolute poverty by 2030.

For 2026, the government’s key targets include providing stable employment for a million people, lifting 181,000 families out of poverty, increasing the number of poverty-free mahallas (neighborhoods) by 2.5 times to 3,500, and reducing unemployment and poverty to 4.5%.

The World Bank Group remains committed to working with the government to support Uzbekistan in achieving its key development objectives by 2030, including in the areas of poverty reduction, job creation, and building a sustainable and competitive market economy, through both projects and analytical work across various sectors.

In May 2022, the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Uzbekistan (FY2022–2026) was endorsed by the Board of Executive Directors, outlining financial and analytical support to the government over a five-year period.

The CPF aims to accelerate the country’s transition toward an inclusive and sustainable market economy through three key objectives: boosting private sector employment, enhancing human capital, and supporting green growth. Implemented in alignment with the National Development Strategy 2030, the CPF contributes to the government’s broader social and economic development goals.

As of April 1, 2026, the World Bank’s country program in Uzbekistan comprised 27 projects, with net commitments totaling $5.6 billion. Over 60% of this financing is provided through highly concessional credits from IDA.

World Bank-funded projects are driving critical macroeconomic reforms and modernizing numerous sectors, including urban and rural infrastructure, agriculture, water and land resource management, water supply and sanitation, energy, transport, health, education, social protection, and so on.

The International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) current portfolio in Uzbekistan stands at $1.0 billion, supporting private sector growth across a range of sectors, including renewable energy, energy storage, retail, food and beverage production, packaging, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and housing finance.

IFC’s advisory and upstream program exceeds $30 million and focuses on developing public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Uzbekistan, creating markets for commercial mortgage financing and green buildings, and improving the business environment to attract private investment.

As of February 28, 2026, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency’s (MIGA) portfolio in Uzbekistan stood at $730 million, supporting the country’s energy security, private sector growth, and MSME access to finance, while contributing to job creation and the mobilization of foreign investment.