Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan is a lower-middle-income country in Central Asia with the region’s largest population — 38.5 million people as of July 1, 2026. One of only two doubly-landlocked countries in the world, it is the only country that borders all four other Central Asian states — Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan — as well as Afghanistan. Uzbekistan has one of the most diversified economies in the region.

The government’s Central Asia–oriented and proactive foreign policy enables the country to play a leading role in promoting regional economic cooperation, including in the water, energy, transport, and trade sectors. These efforts are also supported by the World Bank Group through various regional programs.

Since 2017, the government has implemented bold reforms to liberalize the economy and strengthen the foundations for private sector–led growth, with active support from the World Bank Group. Real GDP growth averaged 6% annually between 2017 and 2025. The country has become one of the world’s top reformers, outperforming many lower-middle-income economies.

The national poverty rate fell from 17.0% to 5.8% between 2021 and 2025, lifting 3.7 million people out of poverty. The middle class grew from 37% to over 72% of the population over the same period.

Despite this progress, with 22% of people remaining vulnerable to falling back into poverty, Uzbekistan faces an urgent and significant demographic pressure to generate more and better jobs for its growing and urbanizing population. To achieve sustainable, job-rich economic growth, Uzbekistan needs to continue reforms focused on reducing state dominance in the economy, liberalizing key sectors, and improving the environment for trade, business, and investment, as well as building the right skills for the fast-growing economy.

Accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) can serve as an anchor for these reforms. Uzbekistan’s accession is expected to boost GDP by up to 17%, driven in part by increased investment.

In Uzbekistan, real GDP rose by 7.7% in 2025, up from 6.7% in 2024, driven by domestic demand and growth in services, agriculture, and industry. Private consumption increased by 9.5% in real terms due to higher wages and remittances, while investment grew by 10.5%. Remittance inflows reached a record $9.2 billion in the first half of 2026 alone, constituting a 13% increase.

Exports rose by 2.5% in real terms, led by gold, copper, zinc, uranium, food, fertilizers, and services, while imports increased by 7.7% in real terms due to higher purchases of energy, machinery, and intermediate goods. The current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP in 2025 from 4.7% in 2024.

The Uzbek sum appreciated by 0.6% in 2025 against the dollar due to increased foreign inflows, including remittances and export revenue. International reserves reached $66.3 billion in January 2026 (86% in gold), up $25.1 billion from a year prior.

Household income growth in 2025 was high, driven by wage income growth. In particular, average real household income in the bottom 20% households grew by 26% during 2024–25, compared with 13% in the top quintile. This faster income growth among poorer households accelerated poverty reduction in 2024-25.

Outlook: As a net importer of energy, Uzbekistan is exposed to the global energy price shocks from the conflict in the Middle East. On balance, the conflict is expected to increase the current account deficit in 2026 and add modestly to inflation.

Growth is projected to accelerate to 7.9% in 2026, driven primarily by domestic demand, especially private consumption and investment, while the contribution of net exports and remittances is expected to be modest due to slowing growth in Russia and China, Uzbekistan’s main trading partners.

The government is expected to adhere to its debt limits, with public debt remaining around 28% of GDP in 2026–2027. Headline inflation is projected to decline to 7% in 2026 and gradually approach the inflation target of 5% by 2028.

Downside risks include geopolitical tensions, Middle East conflict escalation, weaker Russian growth dampening remittances, and price volatility. A stronger El Niño could elevate global food prices and worsen water constraints, posing risks to Uzbekistan’s agriculture and inflation in 2027. Upside risks include higher prices for gold and critical minerals, and stronger foreign direct investment.

In 2023, Uzbekistan adopted the National Development Strategy 2030, aiming to become an upper-middle-income country by the end of this decade. The strategy also prioritizes actions to improve people’s well-being through sustainable economic growth, protect the environment, conserve natural resources, and develop public services with a focus on citizens’ needs. The country has also set a target to completely eradicate absolute poverty by 2030.

For 2026, the government’s key targets include providing stable employment for a million people, lifting 181,000 families out of poverty, increasing the number of poverty-free mahallas (neighborhoods) by 2.5 times to 3,500, and reducing unemployment and poverty to 4.5%.

The World Bank Group remains committed to working with the government to support Uzbekistan in achieving its key development objectives by 2030, including in the areas of poverty reduction, job creation, and building a sustainable and competitive market economy, through both projects and analytical work across various sectors.

In May 2022, the World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Uzbekistan (FY2022–2027[AA1] ) was endorsed by the Board of Executive Directors, outlining financial and analytical support to the government over a six-year period.

The CPF aims to accelerate the country’s transition toward an inclusive and sustainable market economy through three key objectives: boosting private sector employment, enhancing human capital, and supporting green growth. Implemented in alignment with the National Development Strategy 2030, the CPF contributes to the government’s broader social and economic development goals.

As of October 5, 2026, the World Bank’s country program in Uzbekistan comprised 24 projects, with net commitments totaling $5.4 billion. Over 60% of this financing is provided through highly concessional credits from IDA.

World Bank-funded projects are driving critical macroeconomic reforms and modernizing numerous sectors, including urban and rural infrastructure, agriculture, water and land resource management, water supply and sanitation, energy, transport, health, education, social protection, and so on.

The International Finance Corporation’s (IFC) current portfolio in Uzbekistan stands at approximately $1.0 billion, supporting private sector growth across a range of sectors, including renewable energy, energy storage, retail, food and beverage production, packaging production, as well as micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) and housing finance.

IFC’s advisory and upstream program totals $31 million and focuses on developing public-private partnerships (PPPs) in Uzbekistan, creating markets for commercial mortgage financing and green buildings, capacity building of financial institutions for MSME and gender-inclusive finance, and improving the business environment to attract private investment.

IFC's priorities in Uzbekistan center on expanding access to finance, supporting the growth of competitive local enterprises, and catalyzing private investment in key sectors such as infrastructure, agribusiness, manufacturing, and financial services.

As of February 28, 2026, the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency’s (MIGA) portfolio in Uzbekistan stood at $740 million, supporting the country’s energy security, private sector growth, and MSME access to finance, while contributing to job creation and the mobilization of foreign investment.