Syria

Nearly 14 years of conflict in Syria have left a profound impact on the country, resulting in widespread devastation, an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, and one of the largest displacement crises in modern history. The conflict is estimated to have damaged nearly one-third of Syria's pre-conflict gross capital stock, with direct physical damage to infrastructure, residential buildings, and non-residential buildings estimated at $108 billion. Syria’s reconstruction costs are estimated at US$216 billion based on a rapid nationwide assessment of infrastructure and building assets from 2011 to 2024. The estimated physical reconstruction costs are nearly ten times Syria’s projected 2024 GDP, highlighting the scale of the challenge and the significant need for international support.

Today, Syria stands at a critical crossroads. Recent political transition and subsequent developments present an opportunity for the country to progress towards stabilization, address its people's needs, and initiate the reconstruction and recovery process.

However, the challenges ahead are substantial. A collective commitment and coordinated action are essential to implement a comprehensive support program that will help Syria restore vital infrastructure and services. This approach will lay the groundwork for a more resilient future for the people through sustainable recovery and long-term development.

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Fourteen years of conflict, instability, and external shocks have severely affected Syria’s macroeconomic and growth prospects. The decline in Gross National Income per capita led the World Bank to reclassify Syria in 2018 as a low-income country eligible for funds from the International Development Association (IDA)—a fund for the world’s poorest nations.

The economy contracted dramatically: real GDP declined by an estimated 54.6% between 2010 and 2024. Since 2011, the Syrian pound (SYP) has depreciated by a factor of 300, with the market exchange rate plummeting from SYP 48/$ to SYP 14,799/$ by 2024.

As of 2022, poverty affects 69% of the population. Extreme poverty, while virtually non-existent before the conflict, affected more than one in four Syrians and might have further deteriorated following the February 2023 earthquake. Multiple external factors, including the 2019 financial crisis in Lebanon, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, have contributed to further eroding the welfare of Syrian households in recent years.

Following a contraction of 1.5% in 2024, Syria’s GDP is expected to grow modestly by 1% in 2025, amid continued security challenges, liquidity constraints, and suspended foreign assistance. Since the political transition, Syria has been facing a severe liquidity crisis due to a shortage of physical banknotes and disruptions in local currency circulation. The easing of sanctions provides some upside potential; however, progress remains limited as frozen assets and restricted access to international banking continue to hinder energy supply, foreign assistance, humanitarian support, and trade and investment.

Return movements have increased since the fall of the Assad regime. While returnees pose a short-term challenge as they require assistance, their return could boost growth in the medium term by resuming their abandoned business activities and bringing much-needed skills and capital, increasing aggregate demand and labor supply.

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Before the conflict, the World Bank provided Syria with technical assistance and advisory services across various sectors. Following the outbreak of conflict in 2011, all World Bank operations in Syria were halted. Despite this, the World Bank continued to monitor the effects of the conflict on the Syrian population, the economy, and neighboring countries. Since 2022, the World Bank has produced the Syria Economic Monitor, which updates key economic developments and policies.

With the political transition, there has been an increase in international engagement and support for Syria’s transitional government. Key regional players have begun to re-engage and provide technical and fiscal assistance. In May 2025, Saudi Arabia and Qatar cleared Syria's arrears to the International Development Association (IDA), reinstating Syria’s eligibility for World Bank funding after a 14-year suspension. This development paves the way for renewed development assistance. Additionally, easing sanctions by the EU, the UK, and the US signals a significant policy shift and a new phase in Syria’s re-engagement with the international community.

As Syria prepares for recovery and reconstruction, the World Bank has swiftly started updating its knowledge base on the country and engaged in policy dialogue with government authorities regarding priorities and partnerships.

Rehabilitating the electricity sector was identified as a critical investment which can significantly improve the living conditions of the Syrian people, support the return of refugees and internally displaced, enable the resumption of essential services, and help kickstart economic recovery. In June 2025, the World Bank approved its first project in Syria in nearly four decades: a US$146 million IDA grant to restore reliable and affordable electricity to support economic recovery. The Syria Emergency Electricity Project marks the first step in a planned increase in World Bank support for Syria on its path to recovery and development.

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