Poland

Poland is the largest economy in Central Europe, with GDP surpassing $1 trillion in 2025.

Since the return to the market economy in the 1990s, Poland has experienced remarkable economic success. Its accession to NATO in 1999 and the European Union (EU) in 2004 have firmly placed the country in the European and Trans-Atlantic community. Poland’s economy is characterized by its resilience (an over 30-year growth streak only briefly interrupted by a shallow COVID-19-induced recession), relatively strong diversification, and openness.

After more than three decades of development success, Poland is at a critical juncture. In order to ensure a sustainable and resilient future amid complex external and internal challenges and continue convergence to the EU’s top economies, Poland must rekindle its growth model and pursue next-generation reforms, engaging in a new virtuous cycle of investment, infusion, and innovation.

To be able to enter new global and regional value chains, boost labor productivity, and ensure high-quality jobs for citizens, Polish firms need to invest in research and development, human capital (including re-skilling and upskilling of employees, as well as promoting life-long learning), and technology adoption. Public sector reforms and accelerated private-sector investments are essential in this respect.

The ongoing transition to clean and affordable energy sources is key to ensure the competitiveness of Polish firms, as well as the health and the well-being of citizens. Building economic and environmental resilience in the face of strained water resources will also be key to long-term sustainability.

Despite rising global uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, Poland’s economy has continued to show resilience, underpinned by a diversified structure, appropriate macroeconomic policies, a sound financial sector and firms’ flexibility. Still, with a rapidly aging society, sustaining success will require continued productivity growth and international competitiveness. Beyond technology absorption, mobilizing private capital, investment, and innovation will need to play an increasingly important role supported by stronger financial markets and a resilient innovation ecosystem. Ensuring access to affordable, clean energy is another pivotal enabler. While necessary, safeguarding security in a shifting geopolitical environment is tightening the fiscal space.

Under the Excessive Deficit Procedure, Poland has committed to a Medium-Term Fiscal Structural Plan to converge to EU fiscal deficit rules by 2028. Despite the activation of the National Escape Clause permitting a temporary deviation of up to 1.5% of GDP in net expenditure growth until 2028, the path to sustainability requires more targeted measures.

Growth picked up from 3% in 2024 to 3.6% in 2025, driven primarily by private consumption. Assuming a temporary impact from the Middle East conflict, given the high levels of energy stockpiles, there should be no shortage of fuel. Still, the conflict is expected to weigh down on 2026 growth by about 0.3 percentage points as higher inflation weakens consumption, delays investment, and tightens fiscal conditions. The overall impact is expected to be partially mitigated by private and public investments associated with the Recovery and Resilience Facility, high levels of household savings, and inventory build-up.

Over the medium term, growth is expected to stabilize close to potential at 3%, but 2027 will suffer from carry-over from the commodity price shock in 2026, affecting investment decisions. Elevated deficits are raising public debt, which is set to exceed 60% of GDP in the mid-term.

The World Bank Group’s financing to Poland remains highly selective. This is meant to maximize impact while helping Poland address remaining development challenges, and delivering global public goods.

Poland has made strides in strengthening its overall economic governance systems over the last three decades and reached remarkable economic success. However, economic and social institutions to manage key transitions—demographic, green, and digital—need to be developed further on the national and subnational level to achieve sustainable graduation from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. At the same time, public sector reforms must be paired with vast private capital mobilization to support the necessary investments at scale.

In the face of new challenges and a rapidly evolving global context, the World Bank Group seeks to help Poland recalibrate its growth model to reboot productivity growth and competitiveness and proactively address issues related to energy security, technological transitions, and water resilience.

In cooperation with the public and private sector in the country, the World Bank Group is focusing on enabling innovation and investments for higher quality jobs through unlocking private investment and innovation capacity, while facilitating the necessary labor and skills transitions in the face of rapid technological changes.

In the energy sector, analytical support from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, combined with the International Finance Corporation’s private and local government sector investments, will seek to increase innovative renewable energy sources (RES) power generation, ensure the enabling transmission and storage infrastructure is in place, and strengthen the grid to accommodate additional clean energy.

Water resilience is another focus area for the World Bank Group, which will focus its efforts on protecting water as a strategic asset and safeguarding people and the economy from flood- and drought-related disasters.