Latest Food Security Update – June 2026
(data as of June 22, 2026)
Global food and nutrition security remains fragile. Global food supplies remain broadly adequate, according to the AMIS Market Monitor, but higher costs and supply chain disruptions continue to put pressure on prices, while production of major cereals is expected to decline from 2025 record levels.
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Global fertilizer markets have faced pressure since early 2026 and in the first five months of 2026, fertilizer prices increased by 35 percent compared to the same period last year. Despite easing in the past weeks, fertilizer markets have not fully stabilized and the effects of reduced applications earlier in the season are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.
There is a 61 to 87 percent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and persisting into 2027. If realized, rice output could fall by 20 to 50 percent in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed, further deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable countries
Since the last update, the agricultural, cereal, and export prices indices have decreased by 6, 8, and 7 percent, respectively. Maize and wheat prices, which closed 15 and 13 percent lower, respectively, have driven the decrease in the cereal price index. Rice prices closed 9 percent higher. On a year-on-year basis, the average price for maize is 1 percent lower, whereas rice and wheat prices are 1 and 8 percent higher, respectively. Maize, wheat, and rice prices are 6, 4, and 3 percent higher, respectively, than in January 2020.
Domestic food price inflation remained moderately high between April and May 2026. Data for this period indicates a slight deterioration in low-income countries, resulting in an increase in the share of countries with food inflation above 5 percent (from 40.0 percent to 45.0 percent). On the other hand, conditions improved in lower-middle-income countries (from 40.8 percent to 36.7 percent), upper-middle-income countries (from 34.0 percent to 29.8 percent), and high-income countries (from 6.8 percent to 5.1 percent) (Figure 2a). Regionally, food inflation pressures increased in Latin America and the Caribbean and South Asia, eased in Europe and Central Asia, and remained uneven across Africa, with persistently high levels in parts of Eastern and Southern Africa. In the latest quarterly data, real food prices outpaced headline inflation in about 14 percent of the 169 countries analyzed. This was particularly the case among lower-middle-income countries, where roughly one in six countries recorded positive real food inflation.
Find out how the World Bank Group is promoting food security and jobs through our AgriConnect initiative.
Last Updated: Jun 30, 2026
