Thailand’s economy grew by 2.5 percent in 2024, surpassing expectations due to an unexpected improvement in goods exports and the rollout of fiscal stimulus (THB 10,000 cash transfer) which offset slowing private consumption and tourism arrivals.

Despite the recent uptick in GDP growth, Thailand’s recovery continued to lag behind peers with GDP remaining below its potential level. Potential growth is expected to decrease by around 0.5 percentage points to 2.7 percent in 2022-30. At this rate, Thailand will not achieve its high-income aspirations by 2037. Raising competitiveness can help attract investments and move economic activity into more innovative or productive global value chains.

Amid recent global trade policy developments, weakening exports, slowing consumption and moderating tourism recovery, Thailand’s GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.8 percent in 2025 and 1.7 percent in 2026. However, GDP growth could rise to 2.2 percent in 2025 and 1.8 percent in 2026 with improved investment sentiment.

To navigate these challenges, Thailand can focus on structural reforms to boost productivity in new growth engines and key industries of the future such as the creative economy, kitchen of the world / agri-business, sustainable tourism, green manufacturing, and digital services.

In the near term, fiscal rebalancing towards public investment, while safeguarding fiscal and financial stability will be essential to mitigate risks and support a more inclusive and sustainable recovery. Trade partnerships can be supported by broad-based trade liberalization through removing trade barriers to service and agricultural sectors. Enhancing human capital, improving the investment climate, and accelerating digital transformation are critical to raising productivity and promoting better jobs across multiple sectors in, for example, commerce, finance and public health.