Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.4% in 2024, supported by remittance-driven domestic demand and growth in industry (20%) and agriculture (10.6%).
Under the Lower Middle-Income Countries (LMIC) poverty line of $3.65 a day, the poverty rate declined to 9.1% in 2024 from 11.1% in 2023.
The trade deficit widened due to increased import demand and declining precious metal exports. Foreign direct investment inflows remained low, at 1.3% of GDP (compared to 0.8% in 2023). The central bank accumulated international reserves reaching $4.6 billion by end-December 2024 and covering more than seven months of imports.
Economic Outlook
In the context of rising global uncertainty, Tajikistan’s economic growth has been cautiously forecast at 7.6 % in 2025, supported by private consumption and the recovery of precious metal exports. Inflation is expected to rise slightly to 3.9% in 2025 and gradually move toward the central bank’s medium-term target of 5% (+/-2). The poverty rate at $3.65 a day poverty line is expected to drop to 8.2% in 2025.
Under the baseline, Tajikistan’s external position is expected to remain robust despite normalization of remittance flows as Russia’s economic growth slows, including due to lower oil price outlook, and migration policies tighten.
Elevated precious metals prices will likely support exports, while easing food and oil prices reduce the import bill, thus narrowing the trade deficit. Global uncertainty has worsened an already weak investment environment due to domestic challenges. The fiscal deficit is projected to remain below 2.5% of GDP over the medium term.
The outlook faces risks from global policy uncertainty, intensifying trade protectionism, regional armed conflicts, and lagging structural reforms domestically. To raise potential growth, the authorities will need to expedite reforms in stimulating private sector development and public sector efficiency and accountability, while cultivating economic resilience to climate change.