Moldova is an upper-middle-income economy with a population over 2.3 million people (2024). Located in Eastern Europe, it borders Romania and Ukraine.

Moldova's economic recovery remains fragile due to energy price shocks from the non-renewal of the gas transit contract through Ukraine in January 2025 and the ongoing impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite meeting energy needs through European Union (EU) imports, Moldova faces higher energy prices and increased fiscal costs. While the outlook is moderately positive, risks include prolonged conflict, energy price volatility, the 2025 parliamentary elections, and slower growth in key trade partners amid an uncertain global trade outlook. Poverty persists, particularly in rural areas, while declines in remittances and an aging population add pressure to the economy. Low labor participation hampers employment growth. Progress on EU accession and structural reforms is crucial for long-term growth, with the EU offering significant support for reforms and energy independence.

Adverse weather events and energy shocks due to Moldova’s heavy dependence on energy imports and limited diversification in energy sources pose substantial risks to the country’s agricultural sector and livelihoods. With EU candidate status, strong reform momentum and growth-enhancing, climate-resilient investments are needed to foster long-term, sustainable development and convergence toward EU income levels.

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