Mali’s economy remains undiversified from rain-fed agriculture and other commodities, making it exposed to climate and price shocks.

GDP growth is projected to reach 4.9% in 2025 (1.9% per capita), supported by the start of lithium production, services, and agriculture. The industrial recovery, primarily driven by mineral extraction and cotton ginning, offsets a 4% decline in gold export volumes due to temporary mine closures linked to tax disputes.

Real GDP growth is projected to average 5% over 2026-2027, supported by lithium production, agriculture and telecommunication. The current account deficit is estimated to widen to 6.5% of GDP in 2025.

Inflation is projected to rise beyond the WAEMU ceiling of 3% of GDP in 2025, driven by conflict- related crop losses, disruptions in food distribution and climate shocks. Poverty forecasts for 2025 are essentially flat, down just 0.3 pp to 36.4% from 2024.

The fiscal deficit is expected to widen to 3.3% of GDP in 2025, reflecting lower-than-anticipated mining revenues. While tax and customs measures supported revenue mobilization, spending pressures rose from public recruitment and flood-related spending. With public debt estimated at 52.9% of GDP in 2025, the risk of debt distress remains moderate.

Short-term priorities include strengthening fiscal consolidation efforts through digitalization, ensuring a sustainable evolution of the public wage bill and increasing both the level and efficiency of priority spendings. Improved regulatory quality, and resolution of the energy crisis would support the private sector and strengthen its investment in workforce development.