In 2025, Kazakhstan's economic growth is expected to accelerate to 5.5% on stronger oil output, fiscal stimulus, and resilient household borrowing, before moderating toward its 3.5% potential without further structural reforms.  Household spending is expected to remain resilient, bolstered by social transfers and steady consumer borrowing.

Exports are anticipated to expand, driven by strong crude oil shipments.Inflation is set to rise in 2025, fueled by increases in utility and fuel prices due to subsidy reductions, along with a VAT hike.

This inflationary pressure is expected to persist, keeping inflation above the National Bank's target beyond 2027. The positive output gap, estimated to widen in 2025, will also contribute to sustained inflationary pressures.

Low oil prices and continued repatriation of investment income from mining are projected to keep the current account in deficit, averaging 2.9% of GDP over 2025–2027.  The fiscal deficit is projected to increase to 3.6% of GDP in 2025 and narrow gradually to 2.3% by 2027, supported by stronger revenue mobilization through a VAT increase and improvements in tax administration.

The government’s 2026–2028 spending plan outlines a gradual consolidation path, with tighter transfers to local governments, while keeping infrastructure as a priority through 2027. The deficit is expected to be financed mainly through domestic borrowing and further withdrawals from the National Oil Fund. Public debt is projected to increase from 23.4% of GDP in 2024 to 27% in 2027.

The poverty rate is projected to decline gradually to 6.2% by 2027 (at the $8.30/day threshold). However,  a spike in inflation could disproportionately impact low-income households and delay poverty reduction.

Risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside.  A surge in oil global supply could outpace demand, exerting pressure on oil prices. Potential disruptions to the Black Sea pipeline, also pose a risk to Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Domestically, expansionary fiscal policy and rapid credit growth could prolong elevated inflation, worsen macroeconomic conditions and investor confidence and erode real incomes for poor and vulnerable households.