Political instability, gang violence, and institutional weaknesses have contributed to a deepening fragility trap. Disruptions to transportation networks and border crossings have constrained trade and limited government revenue mobilization.
The economy contracted by 4.2% in 2024, including declines in agriculture (-5.6%), industry (-4.7%), and services (-3.9%). Inflation moderated from 44.2% in 2023 to 25.8% in 2024, but food inflation has remained persistently high (34.7% on average in 2024). An estimated 37.6% of Haitians live on less than $2.15/day (2017 PPP) in 2025. Tax revenues dropped from 6.3% to 5.2% of GDP, though a tight fiscal stance and strong remittance inflows helped stabilize the gourde and reduce inflation.
In 2025, GDP is forecast to contract by 2.2 percent as political uncertainty and gang violence depress private investment and high inflation dampens private consumption. Modest GDP growth is projected by 2026 as investment increases from a low baseline, assuming modest improvements on the political and security fronts. However, trade policy changes may dampen textile exports, compounding existing security and business climate challenges. With modest GDP growth, poverty is expected to moderate, with the share of Haitians living on less than $2.15/day 2017 PPP projected to drop slightly from 37.6 percent in 2025 to 36.7 percent by 2027.
To accelerate growth and reduce poverty, progress on security, credible elections, and investment in governance, infrastructure, and human capital are needed. Improved disaster risk management and a stronger social contract will be critical to reversing fragility and enabling sustainable development.