Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest and most fragile countries, has a population of approximately 1.9 million. Guinea-Bissau borders Senegal to the north and Guinea to the south, and its Atlantic Ocean coast features the Bijagós archipelago, with 88 islands. Despite its small size, Guinea-Bissau is home to a large variety of ethnic groups, languages, and religions.

Political Context

Guinea-Bissau has experienced political instability since gaining independence from Portugal in 1974. The latest crisis followed the November 2025 elections, when soldiers seized power before the results were announced, removing President Umaro Sissoco Embaló and suspending the electoral process.

Major-General Horta Inta-A was sworn in as Transitional President, with Ilídio Vieira Té appointed Prime Minister. A Political Transition Charter established a 12-month transition period and a National Transition Council, while barring the transitional leaders from contesting elections.

In August 2026, a constitutional referendum approved reforms expanding presidential powers and reducing the number of parliamentary seats from 102 to 65. The PAIGC called for a boycott of the referendum and did not endorse the proposed constitutional changes. Other political and civil society actors also expressed differing views on the proposed reforms.

Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for December 6, 2026, with the authorities presenting the vote as the next step toward a return to full civilian rule.

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The economy is projected to slow to 4.9% in 2026 (2.7% per capita), from an estimated 5.8 percent in 2025, reflecting weaker growth in public consumption and investment, as well as softer private demand. Nevertheless, strong cashew production and export performance are expected to provide important support to economic activity. Inflation declined to 0.9% in 2025, driven by lower fuel prices, and fell into negative territory in early 2026. However, rising global energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, together with ongoing trade disruptions, are expected to push average inflation up to 2.0% in 2026.

The fiscal position is projected to strengthen in 2026, with the deficit narrowing to 5.0% of GDP from 6.8% in 2025, reflecting improved revenue performance and moderation in both current and capital spending. By contrast, the external position is expected to weaken, with the current account deficit widening to 7.1% of GDP in 2026 up from 4.9% in 2025. While strong cashew exports will continue to support external earnings, higher fuel import costs and reduced grant inflows are expected to weigh on the balance of payments.

Growth is expected to average 5.0% in 2027-2028. Agriculture and services are expected to remain key drivers of growth. Improved revenue collection, a potential resumption in grants, together with prudent expenditure management, are expected to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.7% in 2028. Achieving these targets will depend on strong fiscal discipline, and continued availability of concessional external financing and grants.

Risks to the outlook remain elevated, stemming from political uncertainty, election-related fiscal slippage, and climate and terms-of-trade shocks.

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The Guinea-Bissau Human Capital Project (2024–2030), supported by a $20 million IDA grant, aims to improve outcomes for vulnerable groups. It integrates social protection, health, and education through cash transfers, strengthened community health services, improved teacher training, and a national social registry.

The Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa project strengthens statistical capacity and delivers foundational data for informed decision-making. The country's first census since 2009 was completed, with preliminary results released in July 2026, already informing development planning, public investment, and social services allocation.

The ECOWAS Regional Electricity Access Project is a $225 million regional operation (of which $60 million for Guinea-Bissau) that aims to extend the distribution networks from the West African Power Pool interconnection networks. In Guinea Bissau, the project has built MT 30KV Network – 1,696 km; LV 230 V Network - 489 km; Substations – 124; Completed 20.651 domestic connections in 90 locations. The project is closing in December 2026.

The Solar Energy Scale-up and Electrification Project provides further support to improve EAGB’s operations, including its information system, financial management, and corporate governance. It is also laying the foundations for a sustainable expansion of electricity access in both Bissau and the rest of the country.

The Enhancing Connectivity in Northern Guinea-Bissau Project, through an IDA grant of $70 million and an additional financing of $14.7 million, supports the rehabilitation and upgrade of a section of the Safim–Mpak northern road corridor (from Safim to Antotinha), a key connection between Bissau and the border with Senegal.

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A new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for fiscal years 2027-2031 will be prepared to guide the World Bank Group’s engagement in Guinea-Bissau with delivery planned for FY27.

A Streamline Systematic Country Diagnostic is currently under preparation and will be delivered by end 2026. The updated RRA, the CCDR, and the Poverty Assessment recently completed will also serve as a basis to build a solid CPF.

The active portfolio of the World Bank Group in Guinea-Bissau includes four national IPF projects ($154.79 million, plus $13.15 millions of cofinancing in energy sector), and four regional operations ($169 million), for a total commitment of $323.79 million, funded by the International Development Association (IDA).

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