Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau, one of the world’s poorest and most fragile countries, has a population of approximately 1.9 million. Guinea-Bissau borders Senegal to the north and Guinea to the south, and its Atlantic Ocean coast features the Bijagós archipelago, with 88 islands. Despite its small size, Guinea-Bissau is home to a large variety of ethnic groups, languages, and religions.

Political Context

Guinea-Bissau has a history of political and institutional fragility dating back to its independence from Portugal in 1974. It is among the most coup-prone and politically unstable countries in the world. Since independence, four successful coups have been recorded, with another 17 coups attempted, plotted, or alleged. The 2019 presidential elections were followed by a political crisis that ended in April 2020, with ECOWAS recognition of Umaro Sissoco Embaló as President of the Republic. Following a political crisis and the dissolution of Parliament by President Embaló in May 2022, early legislative elections were held in June 2023. In December 2023, Parliament was again dissolved and closed following a constitutional crisis, and a presidential initiative government was appointed. Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for November 23, 2025.

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The economy expanded by an estimated 4.8% in 2024 (2.5% per capita), an increase from 2023 supported by the service sector & higher farmgate prices. Economic activity is expected to remain strong in 2025, with growth projected at 5.1% (2.8% per capita) supported by a favorable cashew campaign and higher producer prices, stimulating private demand and boosting activity in the service sector.

Headline inflation is projected to decelerate to an average of 2.5% in 2025, thanks to easing energy prices. As a result, extreme poverty incidence (<$3.00/day, 2021 PPP) is expected to decline to 41.2% in 2025. Higher cashew production, along with favorable cashew exports price projections, & lower oil and food import prices, will support the narrowing of the current account deficit to 6.1% of GDP in 2025, down from 8.6% in 2024. The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 4.9% of GDP in 2025 supported by higher cashew revenue, and lower current expenditures. Public debt is expected to decline to 78.5% of GDP in 2025.

Growth is expected to average 5.2% in 2026-2027. Agriculture is projected to remain a driver of growth, supported by recent government investments that will enhance rural incomes and stimulate private consumption. The construction & service sectors, alongside improved electricity supply & investments in roads & connectivity infrastructure, are expected to strengthen regional integration and attract private investment. Higher per capita growth and lower food prices are anticipated to reduce poverty to 37.2% in 2027. Improved revenue collection & continued spending discipline could reduce the fiscal deficit and public debt to 3.0% and 74% of GDP, respectively, by 2027.

Despite recent progress, risks to the outlook remain elevated. Economic growth could be dampened by weak performance in the cashew sector, international shocks to commodity markets, political instability and uncertainty surrounding the elections scheduled for November 2025, & potential fiscal slippage.

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The Guinea-Bissau Human Capital Project aims to improve utilization of quality social services, particularly for children (0-10 years), pregnant women and adolescent girls, and poor populations, in the targeted regions of Oio and Bafatá.

The Guinea-Bissau Reform Advancement Development Policy approved on May 1st, 2025, and closing one year later, marked the return of the DPF instrument to the country after 15 years. This operation aims to strengthen public financial management and domestic resource mobilization, and to enhance energy and water utility viability and digital growth.

The World Bank is also supporting the first digital census through the Harmonizing and Improving Statistics in West and Central Africa - series of projects. This will provide critical insights into the country’s population size, distribution, and socio-economic characteristics.

The Strengthening Maternal and Child Health Service Delivery project will close in 2025 with the following results achieved:

• 111,693 pregnant women attended at least four prenatal care consultations during pregnancy
• 148,687 deliveries in health facilities
• 159,082 number of children (0-11) fully vaccinated

Rural Transport Project:

• A total of 113 km of rural roads were rehabilitated: 60 km of main road and 53 km of feeder roads.
• Improved physical access to a total of 5 markets, 18 schools, and 5 health centers that were not accessible all year round due to poor road conditions.

OMVG Interconnection Project:

• Guinea-Bissau’s electricity trade capacity has increased from zero to 170,000 kVA, enabled by the OMVG electricity transmission infrastructure. This allows to fully meet its electricity demand through imports from Guinea.
• The OMVG network includes 1,677 kilometers of transmission lines and fiber optic infrastructure spanning the four member countries. Its completion also closes the final gap in the West African Power Pool (WAPP) interconnected network.

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A new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY26-30, which guides the World Bank Group’s engagement in the country, is under preparation and will focus on enhancing the nation's human capital and fostering more resilient and inclusive livelihoods. The CPF will incorporate two cross-cutting themes: strengthening fiscal and institutional capacity and promoting economic empowerment for youth and women.

The updated Systematic Country Diagnostic identified several interconnected binding constraints to sustainably reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity, including:

• Lack of inclusiveness and low rural productivity.
• Low and unstable economic growth.
• Fragility and weak governance.

The Risk and Resilience Assessment (RRA) has also been updated. The updated RRA confirms the fragility and resilience factors identified in the previous 2020 assessment. In addition, the new World Bank Group’s strategy for Guinea-Bissau will continue to apply a fragility and resilience lens perspective to address fragility and leverage resilience opportunities in the country. Moreover, it integrates recommendations from the Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) developed in 2024.

Portfolio

The active portfolio of the World Bank Group in Guinea-Bissau includes six national projects ($189.79 million) and four regional operations ($169 million), for a total commitment of $358.79 million, funded by the International Development Association (IDA).

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