The Burundian economy is dominated by services (51% of GDP), followed by agriculture (31.6%) and industry (17.4%).

Burundi’s economy expanded by 3.9% in 2024, up from 2.7% in 2023, driven by higher government spending (6.2%), partly financed through inflationary central bank (BRB) advances. Growth was supported by a rebound in services (5.5%) and agriculture (3.7%), while industrial output remained subdued due to fuel and foreign exchange shortages.

Inflation averaged 20.2% in 2024, down from 27.1% in 2023, but disinflation stalled mid-year, as deficit monetization intensified. Poverty was estimated at 74.8%. Externally, the current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to 11.3% of GDP, but reserves remained low at 1.6 months of imports in December 2023, while the parallel exchange premium widened to 152%.

The fiscal deficit declined to 6.5% of GDP in 2024 (from 9.3% in 2023), supported by stronger revenues. Financing relied heavily on domestic borrowing, including BRB financing, fueling inflationary and crowding-out pressures. Public debt edged up to 69.1% of GDP.

Growth is projected at 4.6% in 2025, supported by coffee and gold exports, and a new hydropower plant. Medium-term growth is expected to average 5%, underpinned by improved electricity distribution and sustained export recovery.

Inflation is projected to nearly double in 2025, at 39.1%, before gradually easing. Poverty reduction will remain limited, with per capita consumption growth averaging just 0.8% in 2025–27 and poverty declining marginally to 74.5% by 2027.

Fiscal consolidation and export gains are expected to lower the deficit to 4.5% of GDP and debt to 62.6% by 2027, while the CAD narrows below 10%.

Sustained growth will depend on structural reforms and credible macroeconomic stabilization, with downside risks prevailing but some upside potential from favorable commodity shocks and the government’s homegrown stabilization efforts.

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