The contribution of the agriculture sector is projected to decrease significantly from 1.9 pp in 2024 to 0.6 pp in 2025. This decrease is due to less favorable rainfall than the previous year and a decline in cotton production following the closure of SOCOMA, the country's second largest cotton company.
The secondary sector, after a negative contribution in 2024, is expected to rebound in 2025 and contribute 1.1 pp to growth. This recovery is based on an expected increase in gold production, facilitated by the reopening of closed mines and the gradual formalization of artisanal and semi-mechanized gold mining.
Inflation is expected to stand at 2.7% in 2025, up from 4.2% in 2024. This decline in inflation, combined with the favorable agricultural season, is expected to contribute to a decline in the extreme poverty rate, from 37.5% in 2024 to 34.2% in 2025.
The budget deficit is expected to narrow to 4.7% of GDP, thanks to a stabilization of revenues and the reduction of staff costs.
Medium-term outlook
Assuming continued improvement in security, favorable weather conditions, and a stable political environment, economic growth is expected to strengthen, reaching 5.1% in 2027.
The Government remains committed to a fiscal consolidation policy. Public debt, as a percentage of GDP, is expected to decline gradually through 2027. By 2027, the total number of people living in extreme poverty is expected to be 7.9 million, up from 9.3 million in 2021.
